Nearly three-quarters of the way into the league phase of the Indian Premier League (IPL), and seven of the eight franchises are still in with a shout – however plaintive – of making the playoffs.
Only Royal Challengers Bangalore, runners up last season and such a disappointing rabble this time, are definitely out of the running.
But even as the other teams work out qualification permutations and combinations, this is also a time for the scouting departments to take stock of how they did at the auction in February.
In its initial years, IPL recruitment was very much a hit-and-miss affair, with the misses causing much mirth among rival fans. These days, pretty much every franchise relies heavily on data analytics to make informed choices. Moneyball is no longer just a Brad Pitt movie, it’s become the blueprint for most ambitious, cost-conscious sporting organisations to follow.
But analysis of the Twenty20 format is still in its infancy. Folk recognise that traditional statistical parameters like batting and bowling average mean little in the T20 arena, but such are the vagaries of form and the differences in conditions across the globe that even the best scouts can be made to look silly.
Here we look at how the 10 most expensive picks, in reverse order, from the 2017 auction have fared so far.
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Thangarasu Natarajan (30 million Rupees): It's taken him a while to get game time for Kings XI Punjab, and figures of 1 for 68 from nine overs are far from extraordinary. But he bowled well in tandem with Sandeep Sharma as Delhi Daredevils were crushed in the league's most lopsided game, and could yet prove a shrewd investment. Verdict: Jury still out.
Karn Sharma (32m Rupees): The Mumbai Indians have played him just twice, and Karn has taken 3 for 62 from seven overs in those matches. The perception persists that he bowls too many four-balls, and Mumbai have largely preferred the accurate left-arm spin (and batting ability) of Krunal Pandya. Verdict: Miss.
Nathan Coulter-Nile (35m Rupees): He's gone for a few runs at time, but Coulter-Nile has taken 11 wickets in five matches since replacing Trent Boult as Kolkata Knight Riders' gun overseas fast bowler. In a team that's surely play-off bound, he's definitely added an X-factor with his pace and variations. Verdict: Hit.
Rashid Khan (40m Rupees): The feelgood story of the IPL so far, the Afghan legspinner has taken 12 wickets while conceding less than seven an over. So adroitly has he handled the challenges posed by some of the game's biggest hitters that Ben Cutting, the game-changer in last year's final, has struggled to get into the Sunrisers Hyderabad XI. Verdict: Hit.
Chris Woakes (42m Rupees): Woakes has been one of the regulars for a Kolkata side challenging at the top of the table, but while he's taken 11 wickets, the economy rate of 9.65 is nothing to write missives home about. There hasn't been a punishing innings with the bat either. Verdict: Jury still out.
Pat Cummins (45m Rupees): Has nine wickets from seven matches at an outstanding economy rate of 7.41. But with Delhi mixing and matching a powerful pace-bowling contingent, you get the sense that Cummins hasn't really been able to show all he's capable of. Could be a big player as they seek a late surge into the playoffs. Verdict: Moderate hit.
Trent Boult (50m Rupees): Boult was Gautam Gambhir's go-to pace bowler in the opening week of the tournament. But after taking just 2 for 156 in four games, and going at 9.85 an over, he hasn't been glimpsed since April 15. With Coulter-Nile bowling as he has, chances are he will stay on the bench. Verdict: Miss.
Kagiso Rabada (50m Rupees): He alerted India to his qualities by outfoxing MS Dhoni in the final stages of a game on South Africa's tour of India in 2015. There's been little evidence of those skills in his four games for Delhi thus far, and an economy rate of 9.52 has meant that he remains on the fringes of a squad brimful of pace options. Verdict: Miss.
Tymal Mills (120m Rupees): With Mitchell Starc, one of the world's most feared fast bowlers, deciding to opt out of this season's IPL, Bangalore hoped that Mills – so impressive in England's Twenty20 series in India earlier this year – would step into the breach. But he's taken just 5 for 153 in five outings, and the economy rate of 8.57 hasn't been flash either. In common with most of his teammates, Mills has struggle to match performance with hype. Verdict: Miss.
Ben Stokes (145m Rupees): The New Zealand-born Stokes has been central to Rising Pune Supergiant's revival. His 230 runs have come at a cracking strike-rate of 147.43, and he's taken six wickets while conceding 7.62 an over. Excellent in the field, he's done all this while not being risked for two games before his blockbuster 61-ball hundred against Gujarat Lions. Verdict: Hit.
Just to illustrate the virtues of good scouting, consider this trio:
• After a poor season for Delhi last year, Imran Tahir didn't even get picked at this auction. But with Mitchell Marsh injured, Pune drafted him in as replacement, at his base price of five million Rupees. Sixteen exuberant celebrations later, he's behind only Bhuvneshwar Kumar in the wicket-taking charts.
• Mitchell McClenaghan cost Mumbai Indians three million Rupees at the 2015 auction, while Nitish Rana was snapped up for just one million. McClenaghan has 15 wickets, and Rana 312 runs for the table-topping side. Give those scouts a pat on the back.
Watch out for:
More Lynnsanity: Chris Lynn cost Kolkata 13m Rupees at the 2014 auction, Since then, he has gone on to establish himself as one of the most fearsome hitters in the format. Having started this season with a 41-ball 93 before he hurt his left shoulder, Lynn's return – he's back in training – gives a high-flying side even more options. With Gambhir and Robin Uthappa already in splendid form, Lynn's addition could drive opposition bowlers round the bend.
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