A sense of inevitably seems to have settled around Australia’s match with the UAE today.
The assumption among impartial pundits seems to be that the Emiratis represent a minor hurdle – certainly one lower than Japan would have posed – before the hosts reach their second Asian Cup final.
The UAE has an interesting little team, with the kid with all the hair who does tricks and a striker with four goals, but Australia at home?
Done deal.
Trent Sainsbury, one of Australia’s back four, on Sunday made a point of minimising the danger posed by the UAE for the match in Newcastle. “I don’t think the UAE has got the legs and the stamina to go with us for 90 minutes,” he said.
“It is just going to be quick ball movement, player movement and, as soon as we lose the ball, try and win it back – try and choke them until they’re blue.”
Sainsbury also is less than impressed by Omar Abdulrahman, whom he described as having “arrogance about him”.
He said: “Very tidy on the ball, not the hardest worker and I think we can exploit that.”
Sainsbury perhaps has offered the boldest analysis of the game, from the Australia camp, but it probably does not differ markedly from that a disinterested observer would conjure.
The question is: why?
Australia are ranked No 100 in the world, 20 places behind the UAE.
The UAE have lost one game in this tournament, 1-0 to Iran, at 51 the highest-ranked team in Asia. Australia have lost one game in this tournament, 1-0 to South Korea, ranked 69.
No great bank of meetings between the countries exists; they have no previous meetings in World Cup or Asian Cup qualifying or games.
What minimal contacts exist between the footballing nations certainly do not suggest an Australian walkover today in Newcastle.
In October, the countries played a friendly in Abu Dhabi. It finished 0-0.
Eight players in Australia’s quarter-final first XI – Mile Jedinak, Robbie Kruse, Matthew Leckie, Massimo Luongo, Jason Davidson, Alex Wilkinson, Mathew Ryan and Sainsbury – started in that Abu Dhabi game. Tim Cahill came on with 13 minutes left.
The UAE played without Omar Abdulrahman, who was hurt, and goalkeeper Majed Naser, who was still in limbo for questionable conduct. Neither team looked particularly dangerous, but the Australians more so, until Cahill came on and put a header on goal, blocked by Ali Kasheif.
Also read: 5 things UAE must do
Going back a bit further, the countries were in the same group during qualifying for the London 2012 Olympics, for Under 23 players. The game in Adelaide finished scoreless.
The game in Abu Dhabi, on February 21, 2012, was won 1-0 by the UAE on a goal by Omar in the 23rd minute, beating Ryan, now the senior team keeper.
In a way, that match launched the UAE as a regional power.
A victory in Tashkent led to London 2012, where the young Emiratis gained valuable experience in major tournaments.
Then came the undefeated 2013, unbeaten qualification to this Asian Cup and the semi-final with Australia.
Certainly, playing at home is a significant factor in a major tournament, but the idea that a UAE victory would be some enormous shock is unfounded.
History and recent results indicate these two are evenly matched, with the team in green and gold slight favourites only on the basis of home advantage.
poberjuerge@thenational.ae
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