The majority of fans heading to Jumeirah Golf Estates this week might have anticipated seeing history made.
Rory McIlroy is on the brink of his eighth Race to Dubai title, which would match the record of Colin Montgomerie.
He started the DP World Tour Championship knowing that a fourth win in the season-ending tournament would guarantee him the order of merit title.
He looked good for doing just that when he started the penultimate round of the season in the final group, tied for the lead.
The Northern Irishman faltered on a thrilling Saturday, though. As he stuttered, Eugenio Chacarra, the leader of the Race to Dubai, was surging back up the leaderboard.
Added to that, McIlroy’s playing partner, Tyrrell Hatton, was stretching the lead as he chases a first DP World Tour Championship title himself.
Ahead of Sunday’s finale, here are the permutations as McIlroy tries to make up the 533 point gap to Chacarra at the top of the rankings.
Race to Dubai standings
1 Chacarra, 4,243.8 points
2 McIlroy, 3,709.9
3 Patrick Reed, 3,528.6
4 Casey Jarvis, 2,893
5 Aaron Rai, 2,560.2
Points breakdown for DP World Tour Championship
1 – 2,000
2 – 1,335
3 – 752
4 – 600
5 – 509
If Chacarra wins
The Spaniard said he had already achieved his aims for the season by winning three times, and securing a PGA Tour card for next season.
He would be guaranteed to go to the United States as Europe’s No 1 if he wins in Dubai. He will start Sunday tied with McIlroy in fourth, four shots behind leader Hatton.
If McIlroy wins
The world No 2 started the tournament 533 points behind Chacarra.
There are 2,000 points available to the winner of the DP World Tour Championship.
As such, victory on Sunday will be enough to give McIlroy the Race to Dubai, no matter where Chacarra finishes.
If Hatton wins
The Englishman’s fine 68 on Saturday took him to nine-under, giving him the lead by one shot, ahead of Victor Perez.
Hatton is too far back in the Race – he started the week in 12th place, over 2,200 points behind Chacarra – to win it himself.
If he does hold onto his lead, the maths for those in contention are tricky.
The gap in points between second and third is 583 points. As such, if McIlroy finishes second, it would be just enough to beat Chacarra to the order of merit crown, whatever the Spaniard does. Anything worse than second, and McIlroy cannot leapfrog Chacarra.
