The International Energy Agency was founded in 1974, in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, with a clear mandate: co-ordinate emergency stock releases in a crisis. In 2026, that mandate has been tested like never before.
On March 11, the IEA authorised the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest co-ordinated stock release in the agency's history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure sent the global energy market into its worst crisis in half a century.
In this episode of The Inside Brief, Manus Cranny sits down with IEA executive director Fatih Birol at the agency's headquarters in Paris. They discuss whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can fully rebuild their reputations as reliable exporters and why Asian buyers are already diversifying away from Gulf supply regardless of whether the strait fully reopens.
By Mr Birol's own measure, the world has lost more barrels from this crisis than the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined.
Mr Birol also addresses oil price trajectory and the conditions required for a return to prewar export levels, what Iran's barrels can realistically add to global supply, the UAE's decision to leave Opec and what it means for the cartel's future, and how the IEA is navigating the Trump administration's energy dominance doctrine while expanding its membership to Nigeria, Brazil and India.
“The vase is broken,” Birol says. “The Strait of Hormuz is closed once, and it can be closed again. It is now in everybody's mind.”
The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.
