In 1936, war broke out in Spain between forces aligned with the republic and those loyal to fascist general Francisco Franco. The war foreshadowed the worst of the violence that would engulf Europe in the coming decade. It was one of the first contemporary conflicts that involved the wholesale destruction of cities and the deliberate targeting of civilians. With the help of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, Franco’s forces terrorised Spain while the international community sat quietly on the sidelines.
Pablo Picasso immortalised the conflict with an artistic tribute to those who perished during the destruction of the Basque town of Guernica by German bombers at the height of the conflict. The mural-sized painting, 3.49 metres tall, depicts the suffering of men, women, children and even animals caught in the melee of Nazi bombs. Looking at Picasso's Guernica today, images of decimated Aleppo and other scenes of carnage in Syria quickly come to mind. Have we learnt any lessons from Europe's war in Spain 80 years ago?
Sadly, no. For we see today the same wanton disregard among warring parties for non-combatants. We see a callous disregard for the rules of war. And despite all the technology available that might define discrete zones of safety for neutrals, we hear news of terrible things that have befallen the innocent. It is as though nothing has changed since 1936 or 1940.
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) represents some of those neutral individuals in Syria today. And sadly, medical professionals from the group have become victims in those battlefields as they humbly help civilians caught in the crosshairs of war. As The National reported yesterday, more than 150 hospitals in Syria are supported by MSF and six facilities are directly run by the organisation despite the risks its staff face on the ground.
When governments fail to end the carnage in conflict zones, as happened in Spain and is happening in Syria, the role of non-governmental organisations and civilians becomes paramount. The incredible work of MSF shows that there are people who understand this dynamic. In that way, we have taken some of the lessons of the Spanish civil war to heart, but much work needs to be done. The work of MSF underscores the hope that we must maintain that one day Picasso's Guernica moves beyond a strikingly prescient commentary on contemporary society and is only viewed as a depiction of an isolated historical event.
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
