During the coronation ceremony and celebration concert at Windsor, Rishi Sunak appeared all smiles.
In one sense, he had every right to look happy — these were joyous, uplifting occasions and it was hard not to be moved by either. In another, though, he could allow himself an inward chortle — so dominant was the anointing of King Charles III that it swamped all the domestic media coverage. Without it, surely, more attention would have been devoted to Mr Sunak and his fellow Tories taking a pasting in the local elections.
On one level nationally, picking councillors does not matter. If, as well, you’re the incumbent government as Mr Sunak’s is, tradition virtually dictates you will be beaten, losing more council seats than you win. Then it’s a question of how many? This time, the Conservatives lost more than 1,000 councillors and 48 town halls. That’s bad.
There’s also a supplementary question, which is where? They were defeated all over England: North, South, East and West. They were hammered in rich areas, poor areas, in their historic country shire strongholds and in urban centres, by young and old, voted against by the educated and uneducated. It was as comprehensive a drubbing as we’ve witnessed for a while.
If the whole country had voted this way, the Tories would be on a lowly 26 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent, the biggest lead in two decades. Not that Labour would have swept to power with a thumping majority. More likely, thanks to tactical voting and an unknown hanging over Scotland, depending on whether the SNP can extricate itself from scandal and still convince as a political party with a future, is a hung parliament.
For all his cheery optimism, Sir Keir Starmer does not command the country’s affection, not enough to persuade Tory waverers to vote for him and Labour en masse. Enough of them would rather pick the Liberal Democrats.
Regardless, however. On this showing, Mr Sunak and his party are doomed. They saw the Red Wall in the North turn on them, their old Blue Wall in the South did the same. Brexiteers, remainers, it did not matter — the voters did not support the Tories.
Unless his parliamentary colleagues are going to stagger on, demoralised and probably searching for jobs for once the next election is over, Mr Sunak must pick them up, galvanise them, and fast.
For the first time since entering Number 10, he must show he has beliefs, that he is not just there to mind the shop, that he really does know how to make a difference, to improve people’s lives.
So far, the Prime Minister has had a fairly easy time of it. Sure, he’s had crises to deal with — Ukraine, climbing cost of living, rising energy bills, immigrants crossing the Channel, a fragile peace in Northern Ireland, picking up the pieces from his predecessor, and a succession of resignations on the back of bullying and sleaze allegations.
The true test, however, is where he brings added value. It’s about introducing proactive measures, not ones rushed through in response to a critical situation, but those that define the character and hue of the premiership. Sunak has been fortunate in that he has not been required to prove his true mettle, to come up with meaningful initiatives, until now. But now, the local elections debacle dictates, he must.
If Mr Sunak wants to have a fighting chance in the next national ballot and if he wishes to preserve the careers of several of his friends, ministers, not to mention dozens of backbenchers, he must stop shilly-shallying and deliver.
Which is why, no sooner than the last piece of pageantry faded, we are treated to a slew of announcements concerning the NHS. They are designed to alleviate the pressure on GPs, to reduce delays and remove logjams, to make primary health care more accessible for all.
It’s no coincidence that the NHS should be first — as the country united to oppose Mr Sunak, so does the state of the NHS unite the nation.
Personal geography and demography do not matter — private polling by the main political parties consistently highlights the overriding importance of the health service. It towers over every other subject, regardless of age, wealth, location, background, job, ethnicity, usual political persuasion. Its hold on the British psyche is bizarre for foreigners to comprehend.
Make improvements there, and Mr Sunak will have registered a genuine achievement, one the Tories can sell hard when the general election comes. It’s also something he can use to head off rumbling criticism within his own party. Boris Johnson remains his greatest internal threat, but Mr Johnson harks back to old battles, to staying in the EU or leaving. The local elections showed those feuds no longer resonate; Mr Sunak is ignoring them and moving on to a new agenda.
He wants to get the economy back on to a growth path. The word has gone out across Whitehall for departments to come up with ideas — but they must not repeat those rushed forward by Liz Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng. This is awkward and perhaps mistaken. There was little wrong with what Truss and Kwarteng were proposing. The problem was that they chose to do it all at once and were not clear as to how their package was to be funded. The markets took fright and that was the end for them.
Mr Sunak is set on striking trade deals, ones of greater significance than those secured by Ms Truss, when she was foreign secretary. We can expect those, together with moves on law and order, housing, online abuse and trolling, closer relations with the EU.
He always seems to have a spring in his step. Well, Mr Sunak needs one now. After years in the doldrums, when the pandemic took charge and Britain had a prime minister in Mr Johnson who had won a landslide and felt he had nothing to prove, and consequently believed he could get away with doing very little (just as well, since there was not much that motivated him), politics is all about policies again.
The local elections have told Mr Sunak he has a mountain to climb, but the country isn’t enamoured with Mr Starmer. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems, under Sir Ed Davey, are back. Suddenly, it has got a whole lot more interesting.
