A poll released last weekend showed Scotland's pro-independence camp in the lead for the first time since the referendum campaign began. The change in sentiment ahead of the September 18 vote raised the prospect of a split from the United Kingdom, which seemed unlikely even a few weeks ago.
To outsiders, this may seem a surprising turn of events. Both Scotland and England have lived together peacefully as part of Great Britain for centuries, sharing economic benefits and common identities. Why then would Scotland want independence? And what lessons can it take from those who have separated?
There are many examples of unions splitting up, with conflicting results. Scotland will hope for a similar experience to the break-up of Czechoslovakia, which existed as a federation for 74 years before becoming the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993. The smooth division these two countries achieved is invoked by advocates of independence as evidence that amicable separation is practical and possible. They argue that ending the union would allow Scotland to reverse generations of economic mismanagement.
But the issue of independence involves much more than economic and political benefits. History shows individuals are emotionally attached to the concept of identity. This explains why Kurdish communities in Iraq, Turkey and Syria have struggled for decades for independence from their respective countries. This also explains why the Sikh community in India sought to establish a separate state on the basis of their religion and ethnicity. The problem is that few logically evaluate the benefits and pitfalls of separation.
In this regard, the UAE offers an example of the advantage of unity. The seven emirates came together for mutual benefit. Yet they retained their individual identities. The great feat of the nation’s founder, Sheikh Zayed, was to convince the other emirates that strength lay not in separation but integration.
It is noticeable that, so far, few on the Better Together campaign have highlighted a truly positive case for unity with the rest of the UK. Instead, they have chosen to scaremonger about the likely outcomes of separation. Perhaps that says something about the state of the union.
