Turkey joins the fight against ISIL, but insists on pursuing its own agenda


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Arabic News Digest

When Turkey last week joined the US-led international coalition fighting ISIL in Syria and Iraq, the parliament in Ankara gave president Recep Tayyip Erdogan the green light to attack the militants.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Turkey has joined the fight for the same reasons as the other countries involved.

While the aim of the operation is to weaken ISIL and stop its progression in both countries, Turkey’s participation is mainly aimed at ultimately bringing down the regime of Bashar Al Assad in Syria.

“It is obvious that Mr Erdogan and the Turkish government led by [prime minister] Ahmed Davutoglu consider that the offensive against ISIL would be useless as long as the Assad regime remains in power with the tacit consent of the West,” said the columnist Ali Hamadeh in the Lebanese daily Annahar.

While ISIL fighters get closer to gaining control of the Syrian area of Kobani, which has a Kurdish majority at the southern Turkish border, Turkey’s tanks are in position – but are staying put for the moment.

“Turkey’s tanks and its sizeable ground military forces are ready to advance into Syrian territories to prevent the fall of Kobani and to regain all the areas that have already fallen into ISIL militants’ hands 30 kilometres deep into Syrian lands,” the writer said.

“But Turkey looks on, inert, signalling that it won’t implement an agenda that contradicts its ultimate goal of deposing the Assad regime.”

Also analysing Turkey’s stance in Kobani, the columnist George Semaan wrote in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat: “The Kurdish town of Kobani defines but one aspect of Turkey’s policy and its role in the international coalition.

“Rescuing the city, as Ankara promised, isn’t a test of its determination to fight ISIL. Turkey had declared that it’s prepared to intervene on the field.

“However, its attitude towards the developments in the Syrian north-east has been clear from day one – it doesn’t want to interfere as long as the battle over Kobani is depleting both sides, the jihadists on one side and the Kurdish forces on the other.”

And, in any event, Turkey can’t act completely on its own. Any military moves require the consensus of all coalition member countries to avoid repercussions from Damascus, Tehran and Moscow as well as the Arab nations that have joined the alliance.

“Arab countries have their own reasons for joining the fight,” the writer noted.

“ISIL’s expansion poses serious risks to their national security and the jihadist ideology challenges the core identity of their societies and their practice of Islam.”

More importantly, these Arab governments are looking to benefit politically from their participation. They want to reaffirm their ability to protect their security and the security of the Arab region against “others”, including Iran, Turkey and Russia.

“They aren’t about to digest a Turkish intervention in Syria,” ­Semaan suggested.

That was especially so because it could take away from any clout they stand to gain over any political settlement in the area in the future.

There is no doubt that Turkey’s role in the international coalition is essential. Its geographic location makes it the spearhead in the fight against ISIL in Syria and in Iraq.

Alliance countries breathed a sigh of relief when Ankara decided to join forces with them. But Ankara, just like every other member in the coalition, has its own agenda. As a precondition for its participation, it insisted on a no-fly buffer zone to be established at the border.

It asked for guarantees that Kurds wouldn’t be given access to advanced weapons and that liberated areas would be protected from the Assad regime in preparation for its removal.

Ankara has every right to insist on a list of conditions and targets if it wants to give the impression that it is capable of making decisions independently of Washington, the writer said.

It would ultimately strengthen its position internally against its opposition, and in Arab and Islamic public opinion as well.

Translated by Racha Makarem

rmakarem@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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