The Gulf states have long prided themselves on being islands of stability in a region of strife. And not without good reason: from Libya to Iraq, every country is going through some form of conflict, high-profile fighting that draws the attention.
Yet, on the doorstep of the Gulf, is another emergency, brewing almost silently. Over the weekend, the United Nations warned that Yemen and Somalia need vast and urgent financial assistance or else they face hunger on a vast scale. It is a crisis that, with wars being fought on the Gulf’s northern border, is too easy to ignore. But the coming crisis in Somalia and Yemen could be vast. Now is the time for concerted effort to address it.
Both countries are in the grip of a broader drying of the Horn of Africa. Three years ago, the region faced its worst drought for half a century. Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia have all felt its effects and experienced food shortages. Yemen, historically the wettest and most fertile of the countries of the peninsula, has felt this change, too.
Both Somalia and Yemen are fragile. Yemen has been in disarray since the revolution that toppled its long-time president. Somalia has been chaotic for more than two decades, but, since a combined African military force took control of the capital two years ago, there has been the possibility of stability. Over the weekend, in a separate development, the United States confirmed for the first time that a handful of its military personnel were on the ground in the country.
The humanitarian situation in both countries is severe, with millions of people without food and famine a real threat in Somalia. But worse is that much of the money the international community has pledged – hundreds of millions of dollars – has not even been paid.
Neither country, as the UN said, is “doomed to fail”. Both can be stabilised and conditions for prosperity created. But concerted political action is needed, and it is the Gulf that might want to lead this, because it is the Gulf that will feel the effects of the instability first.
The drying of East Africa is a serious problem that cannot be solved piecemeal: refugees from East Africa end up in Yemen, further straining that country. The instability in Somalia allows pirates to operate from its coasts, affecting global shipping. As the problem affects more than one country, so the solution must involve a coherent regional response.
