As former British prime minister David Cameron and others who supported the “remain” campaign in the Brexit poll now know, referendums can be fraught. In a democracy, it would appear that the purest way to decide a contentious issue would be to take it to the people. But the truth is that many issues that politicians deal with are too complex to be reduced to the simple yes-no format of a plebiscite or referendum.
This past weekend there have been two referendums on opposite sides of the world: in Hungary, where the issue was European Union-mandated settlement of migrants, and in Colombia, where the people were asked to ratify a landmark peace deal with the Farc separatist group. In Hungary, 95 per cent of those who voted backed prime minister Viktor Orban’s position that the EU not be allowed to force the settlement of non-Hungarian citizens in Hungary without parliament’s approval. However, the voter turnout was only 45 per cent – less than the 50 per cent required to be binding – thus voiding the result, like it or not. Mr Orban is now considering his options. In Colombia, 50.24 per cent of people voted against the deal between president Juan Manuel Santos and Farc leader Timoleon Jimenez to end the bloody 52-year insurgency. It would appear that memories of atrocities committed during the insurgency are too raw for many people to accept a deal under which some perpetrators would go free. Both results demonstrate what Mr Cameron already learnt from Brexit: that policy positions and decisions taken by experienced political dealmakers can rarely be condensed to binary terms. Many issues are too complex, nuanced or emotionally charged to be put as a simple question. To do so could even be seen as an abrogation of the power vested in the political class.
Of course, the verdicts of the people must be respected. It is now up to the politicians in Britain and Colombia to make the situations work – to manoeuvre a painless separation from the EU, and to find a new pathway to peace. At the same time, they will be thinking about the political adage that you should never ask a question to which you don’t already know the answer.
