At least the Iranians are taking the Syrian talks seriously. When the Iranian flag is placed on a table in Vienna today – the first time the country has taken part in an international summit on the future of Syria – the man sitting behind it will be Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister and the man who led the negotiations over its nuclear programme.
But then that shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Iran has taken a clear stance from the beginning of the civil war to back the regime of Bashar Al Assad, and now, with the invitation to be part of the group of nations seeking a solution, it has paid off.
There are those who frame the inclusion of Iran as a “victory” for the US, arguing that with the Iran nuclear deal now completed, it is easier for Iran to alter its position. That is a questionable idea. If the appearance of Iran’s foreign minister in Vienna today is a victory it is one for Iran, Russia and Bashar Al Assad alone. Iran was willing to join in talks over the Syrian civil war two years ago; it was the US who blocked it then. Two years on, it is the US position that has changed, and only in response to the military intervention of the Russians in Syria.
If these talks bring a settlement in Syria and an end to the civil war, no one will celebrate more than the Arab world. The impact of the war has been felt more keenly across the Middle East than in either Iran or Russia. But our concern is that Iran does not see this invitation as the beginning of its re-entry from the cold. Rather, it sees it as a reward for fomenting crises in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
It was hoped – somewhat naively, we would suggest – that the nuclear deal would be the beginning of Iran’s rehabilitation. That the country would begin the process, once the deal was signed, of reforming its relations with the outside world, with its neighbours and, especially, with its own citizens. That the long years of doubtful elections and brutality at home would give way to more reasonable positions. Take, as a signal of intent, the report by the UN this week that Iran has been executing people at “an exponential rate” and may top 1,000 executions this year.
So far, however, there is little evidence of that rehabilitation. Not at home, not abroad, not in Syria, Iraq or Yemen is there any evidence of a new Iran. Rather, this is the old face of Iran, now emboldened. Mr Zarif is just its representative.
