Syria has no plan B after Geneva

It is important that the opposition went to Switzerland – despite deep reservations

Russia seems to have little appetite to actually remove Bashar Al Assad. AFP

Listen to the words of Riyad Hijab, the head of the Syrian opposition umbrella group the High Negotiations Committee (HNC): “Assad does not want a political solution. [The regime] comes to the peace talks to make them fail.” Mr Hijab, a former Syrian prime minister, is expressing a widely-held view, not merely among the opposition, but among observers. The Assad regime is not to be trusted.

The HNC did, finally, join the peace talks in Geneva, even though its initial demand that the Assad regime end the siege of Syrian towns and release detained women and children detainees before the talks were not met. But in the days leading up the summit, the HNC was extremely reluctant to take part in discussions that it sees as merely a diversion.

The reticence of the HNC is understandable. Despite the occasional hints dropped by its backer Vladimir Putin in Moscow – just two weeks ago, the Russian president appeared not to rule out asylum for Bashar Al Assad, merely saying it was “premature” – there appears little appetite to actually remove Mr Al Assad. Certainly, he intends to be president for some time. There seems to be no understanding in Damascus that Mr Al Assad’s legitimacy has been lost, and no will inside that capital to enforce his departure. If the HNC are sceptical that talks will accomplish anything, they are right to be so.

And yet, even while accepting all of that, it is important to note that the talks remain the only viable option for ending the civil war. There is no plan B. It has been two years since the last round of talks, and in those two years things have become considerably worse. More civilians have been killed, maimed and displaced. More people have sought refuge in Arab and European countries. And the rise of ISIL has increased the threat to the Middle East and the West.

Another two years without talks is impossible to imagine. There is no clear military solution to the civil war, and only talks will now be able to end the stalemate. Whatever happens in Geneva – and this newspaper remains unconvinced that the Assad regime will give up even an inch of land – it is important the HNC is there. To boycott the talks now would be to hand the regime a propaganda coup it does not deserve – and one which it would certainly exploit.