Lone wolves will be an issue even after ISIL

It may be that the California shooters were self-radicalised, which raises new questions

A police officer lets residents into San Bernadino Avenue, the scene of a mass shooting in California (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP)

After several days in which it looked like the man who, along with his wife, killed 14 people in California last week may have been motivated by a grudge against colleagues rather than something more sinister, investigation officials are now suggesting that at least one of them had pledged allegiance to ISIL. Yesterday, ISIL claimed the attack.

This changes the investigation significantly. If it turns out that the couple were motivated by the ideology of ISIL, it will mean asking a whole series of new questions. How were they radicalised? Their use of automatic weapons and body armour suggests extensive planning; did they receive instructions online on what weapons to purchase? Did either of them receive training, abroad or in the US?

It appears that Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik were self-radicalised. Such “lone wolf” attacks have increased – the fact that now these attackers pledge “allegiance” to ISIL doesn’t change the fact that they have come to these beliefs from elsewhere. ISIL is merely the latest posterboy; before it, lone wolves said they were supporting Al Qaeda.

Self-radicalisation is a serious problem around the world. It has affected people from all backgrounds: Europeans, Arabs and Americans. Indeed, despite the current focus on ISIL and destroying the militant group, self-radicalisation will remain a problem long after ISIL is gone. Even after the campaign against ISIL is completed and the group is denied a safe haven in which to operate and plan attacks, there will still be space for them online.

This is why the UAE’s Sawab Centre, a joint venture with the United States to counter extremist content online, is so important. It is why amplifying mainstream voices is so important, and countering the message of extremism matters.

Ultimately, being able to control the physical space is the easier of the two approaches. We know where ISIL are. We know their geographical co-ordinates. Once the coalition is able to retake the spaces they control in Syria and Iraq, the battle will have to move into the realm of ideas. And there it is a much harder battle.

These extremists flourish in the unguarded spaces online and in the mixed messages that are sometimes put out across social media. The message of extremism can be seductive. As may have been the case with Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik, who had a six-month-old child, even those with full lives can be drawn in.