ISIL leak may make group stronger

Thousands of documents obtained by German intelligence are a mixed blessing

ISIL militants in a convoy in Tel Abyad, northeast Syria. Germany's intelligence services are in possession of files containing personal data on members of the extremist group (Militant website via AP, File)Show less

The 22,000 ISIL documents obtained by German intelligence make fascinating reading. Above all, they demonstrate the terror group’s meticulous record keeping. Most of the documents are questionnaires of prospective recruits, detailing their personal details, as well as level of education, any previous fighting experience and even what “role” they are seeking in the group.

The importance of such documents, which were leaked by a disillusioned former extremist, is obvious. Not only does German intelligence now know the names of recruits, it also knows which ISIL member recommended them (another question) and where else they fought, allowing links between recruits to be traced.

Moreover, it will sow discord within the ranks of ISIL itself. With so many of its recruits exposed – some of whom will have risen to important positions within the group – ISIL will have to start purging some of those exposed, a process that will trigger infighting and defections.

At the same time, there is no room for complacency. The files date from the end of 2013, before the group declared a “caliphate” and before some of their significant victories such as the takeover of Mosul in Iraq. It is likely that recruitment only increased after those events, meaning there are many more ISIL members who are still unknown. To take one example: the documents list 16 British citizens, but UK intelligence has suggested hundreds may have travelled to Syria. In the very short term, the risk of attacks has just increased – if any of those named are in European or Arab countries, there is now a good reason to carry out attacks before the security services come knocking.

Moreover, this cache of documents, while significant, actually helps ISIL. With governments in Europe and the Arab world now aware of the exact identities of their citizens in ISIL, there is no way back for these individuals. Even if they have become disillusioned with the group, since they cannot re-enter their lives back home, they have little choice but to keep fighting. The leak has actually made ISIL stronger in some respects.

The overall effect, then, will at least be mixed. While ISIL may be weakened in the short-term – and particularly will have its recruitment networks weakened – in the medium-term its fighters will have fewer options but to stay with the group. The battle against ISIL is far from over, even if a significant blow has been dealt.