The Middle East is changing rapidly – the Arab Spring, the rise of ISIL, the influence of Iran. It sometimes seems as if, after so many years of stagnation, history is accelerating in our region. But not all of this change is negative. Indeed, as disparate events this week show, a change is coming to the region that could ultimately shape events more favourably towards the majority of people in the region.
The first came at the start of the week, when Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, met US president Barack Obama. Although details were not officially announced, Mr Obama did say he would further formalise the security relationship between the US and the GCC.
That pledge comes as the US seeks an agreement on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the Gulf states warn that a bad agreement would only destabilise the region further.
But closer to home, security relationships in the region are already changing. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced its 10-state coalition was ending its air strikes in Yemen. Military action resumed the next day after the Houthi rebels continued their attacks – but the tactical message was clear. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Gulf states have moved swiftly to show political resolve and military muscle. Regardless of what happens with the US, these Arab countries appear resolved to tackle threats as soon as they appear. That itself is a marked change from even just a few months ago.
But the biggest change of all was announced on Wednesday, when the military chiefs of the Arab League agreed to convene a panel to work out the logistics of a pan-Arab military force. Piece by piece, a joint military is being assembled.
These three events, in one week, taken together, point to a new reality that is being shaped in the region. Even if the US security “umbrella” is enhanced, most of the threats to the region are from destabilisation and chaos, not interstate wars. It is to tackle these threats to stability and security that the pan-Arab force is being created and for the same reason that Saudi Arabia and the GCC were swift to intervene in Yemen. The stability and prosperity of the GCC have been hard-fought and hard-won. A new security environment is needed to maintain that prize.
