The skies over Syria, like the contested ground below it, are becoming crowded. Fighter jets from Russia, America and France have all conducted operations over Syria, and it was only ever going to be a matter of time before there was an incident. But instead of a near miss, when it came, the incident turned out to be serious.
The shooting down of a Russian fighter jet apparently in Turkish territory has the potential to create a serious rift between the two countries. Turkey has remained firm, insisting it warned the pilot 10 times about the alleged incursion. But it has also said the violation lasted just 17 seconds, which, given the complicated geography in that part of the Syria-Turkey border was, perhaps, on the lower side of provocation.
Russia, however, is hardly blameless. This is not the first time its fighter jets have strayed into Turkish territory, and the Turks are rightly concerned that Russia is more interested in targeting anti-Assad rebels than actually fighting ISIL.
Yet an escalation is in no-one’s interests, something that appears to be understood in both Moscow and Ankara. Even the war of words has been relatively muted.
For now, the focus must remain on ISIL. That is not the only issue in Syria – the regime of Bashar Al Assad remains the primary problem to be dealt with – but it is at least one on which the various players can agree. Anything that takes the focus away from ISIL is unhelpful.
As much as the Russians do appear to be targeting anti-regime rebels more than ISIL fighters, they are at least conducting serious operations against the extremist group. That means that, for the moment, the international community has to look at what the various countries in Syria can agree on.
The entry of Russia into the Syrian conflict was provocative and clearly aimed at bolstering a regime that has murdered many more Syrians than ISIL. Yet ISIL is a real threat, both to Syria and Iraq, to the wider region and to the world.
It will take concerted action to defeat the group – concerted action by parties that barely trust one another and that are in the region for different, even competing, aims. That means that, for now, calmer heads must prevail.
