In less than a week, it will have been two months since the start of the Iran war, after the US and Israel attacked Tehran and Iran responded with attacks on at least eight countries. In addition to the death and injury of many civilians in Iran and elsewhere in the region, this war has set off a chain reaction that threatens to upend the world’s economy. Amid this turmoil, US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a ceasefire extension was welcome but waiting to which side blinks first is becoming increasingly dangerous.
In Islamabad, the trappings of an international peace summit are ready for American and Iranian participants. It remains to be seen if more talks will take place, but if they do, the brinkmanship that has characterised negotiations thus far must be replaced by the only realistic way forward. This consists of a political settlement that not only frees the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian domination but ends Tehran’s ability to attack and harass its neighbours.
This is easier said than done. This week, more vessels were attacked in Hormuz as an international slow-motion energy and supply-chain crisis gathers momentum. At the same time, none of the core issues have been resolved. Both sides are using time as leverage – the US is betting that Iran’s government cannot hold out amid its naval blockade. Tehran is hoping that the war’s unpopularity with the American public will persuade Mr Trump to withdraw his forces.
Both assumptions are questionable. Iran’s security state, clouded by its revolutionary ideology and desire for regional domination, finds purpose and resolve when under direct attack. As Iran’s people can attest, Tehran is relatively unconcerned with the unglamorous business of governance, such as providing jobs, health care and prosperity. Similarly, the US remains a superpower with the resources to sustain a long campaign of military and economic pressure, and Mr Trump’s administration has several years left to run.
But time is not something the rest of the world has. Already there are warnings of a global food crisis as agriculture is hit by shortages of essential fertilisers. Soaring energy costs are already translating into political pressure for several governments, particularly in parts of Europe and Asia where unruly protests over fuel prices are putting elected administrations on the back foot.
Although the current situation is better than violent escalation without a clear end in sight, leaving the world on tenterhooks in semi-permanent cycle of threats, blockades and hollow diplomacy is not a solution. An emerging status quo of open-ended attritional economic warfare is a path towards deeper instability. Delaying the inevitable – a negotiated solution – is detrimental for all sides. The world can’t wait to see who blinks first.
