A destabilised Yemen is a danger to the whole region

Soldiers in Mukalla, Yemen on Sunday. The consequences of Yemen sliding further into chaos are not confined to the country alone. Reuters

Nature, it is said, abhors a vacuum. Looking at Yemen right now, where infighting among the country’s anti-Houthi forces reached the strategic port of Mukalla at the weekend, it is clear that the withdrawal of UAE counterterrorism teams has created the kind of space in which extremists and rogue militias could regroup in an already-fragmented country.

Experts have told The National that Yemen needs a new counter-terrorism strategy to tackle the growing threat from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Muslim Brotherhood following the abrupt departure of experienced UAE operatives. AQAP, one of the region’s deadliest international terror groups, has long exploited deficient governance and internal divisions in Yemen to carry out attacks and expand.

Their violence runs in parallel with the destabilising and coercive rule of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen’s north. There the militants oversee a warlike, impoverished and paranoid regime in which not even UN staff and aid workers are safe from arbitrary arrest. Although Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have largely abated and the group has lost senior leaders to Israeli and US air strikes, the rebels still have the means to strongarm the international community by disrupting maritime trade.

Who benefits from the situation in divided Yemen?

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But the consequences of Yemen sliding further into chaos are not confined to the country alone. Wolf-Christian Paes, a Yemen expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, recently told The National that the security environment is deteriorating further, with troubling reports emerging about extremist activity – including militants from nearby Somalia. “There are allegations about Al Shabab training camps in Yemen now,” he said. “The plot is thickening.”

For the sake of Yemen’s long-suffering people, this plot needs to change. It has been welcome, therefore, to see Yemen's Southern Transitional Council – the largest group in the country’s south – on Saturday welcoming a Saudi announcement that the kingdom was ready to host a dialogue. The STC statement came after Saudi Arabia said it accepted a Yemeni request to hold talks in Riyadh and called on all southern factions to join the conference. This comes after deep divisions in Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council.

Yemeni society needs to see at least a modicum of stability not only for its own sake but for the country’s neighbours and the wider region too

Such engagement and de-escalation are vital to prevent Yemen from sliding further into discord. However, such a process needs to be productive and entered into in good faith – Yemenis have seen too many rounds of talks end in stalemate. Already divisions are re-emerging with Yemen's internationally recognised government on Sunday accusing the STC of restricting access to the port city of Aden and of conducting a campaign of arrests in Yemen’s temporary capital. The STC has denied the accusations.

Such divisions are deep-rooted and difficult to reconcile. Yemen’s unification in 1990 brought together two states whose divisions were never fully resolved. In the end, settling such questions is a matter for the Yemeni people. To do so, Yemeni society needs to see at least a modicum of stability not only for its own sake but for the country’s neighbours and the wider region too. Given this, two things are needed: a results-focused talks process and a new strategy to prevent violent extremists from regaining ground.