Iran's nuclear slowdown is sorely needed progress for regional diplomacy

President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) welcoming International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi during a meeting in Tehran on November 14. AFP

In the six years and six months since the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, there has been concern about how to limit its nuclear programme. Tehran’s steady enrichment of its nuclear stockpile has added to instability in the Middle East and raised fears of conflict.

In 2015, as part of an agreement with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the EU, Tehran had agreed to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from international sanctions that were crippling the Iranian economy.

But in 2018, after the US withdrew from the deal, Iran increased its uranium enrichment, reaching more than 32 times the limit agreed upon in the JCPOA. In recent months, it further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 per cent, a relatively short distance from the 90 per cent needed to build a nuclear weapon.

On Tuesday, a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency revealed that Iran was halting the expansion of its stockpile, which would put on hold its march to become a nuclear power.

Tellingly, this development comes just two months before Mr Trump, who had pledged to resume his policy of "maximum pressure" against Tehran, is due to return to office. It also follows a recent visit to Tehran by IAEA director general Rafael Grossi, where he received assurance from President Masoud Pezeshkian that his government was willing to resolve doubts over its atomic programme.

Iran's decision is said to be conditional on western powers suspending their push for a resolution against it during an IAEA meeting this week over a lack of co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog. All this points to a small but important victory for diplomatic efforts amid months-long wars in the Middle East that have threatened a direct conflict between Iran and the US.

This is particularly notable given the history of acrimony between Washington and Tehran, the effects of the war in Gaza and Lebanon on this already fractious dynamic and Iran continuing to sponsor militias in the Middle East.

Walking back from the brink would be a sensible policy course for Iran. The country’s image has been dented in recent months, not just from Israeli strikes on Iranian soil but also from the damage Israel has meted out to Iran's proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

Domestically, too, the Iranian government faces challenges, including discontent with the country’s economic isolation and a political mood shift towards greater diplomatic overtures to the West. The country's cumulative economic troubles are only set to sharpen given new EU and UK sanctions for its supply of drones and munitions towards Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

With Mr Trump's impending return to the White House – and the spectre of even harsher sanctions looming large – there may be an opportunity to return to stronger diplomatic efforts.

The incoming Trump administration should use this breakthrough to push for a new nuclear deal with Iran – one that broadens the JCPOA's narrow focus to include a way to deal with Iran’s regional activities and support for armed groups. That would be an achievement that both America and Iran could be proud of.