In the 18th century, King Louis XV of France is said to have commented, “After me, the deluge.” The phrase is often used today to describe the disorder that can follow the sudden fall of a national leader. Following the abrupt resignation and flight from Bangladesh of prime minister Sheikh Hasina on Tuesday, however, the situation appeared to be the opposite. Ms Hasina’s departure day was dramatic, but her country appears to be tentatively returning to normal.
Footage on television showed people shopping as businesses, courts and government offices reopened and public transport resumed. The military has lifted the weeks-long curfew imposed during student-led protests. The demonstrators took issue with quotas for government jobs they claimed benefited Ms Hasina’s supporters and her ruling Awami League party.
The protesters’ storming of Ms Hasina’s residence on Monday was the climax in this chapter of unrest, which has claimed at least 300 lives, according to an investigation by the news agency AFP using data from police reports, local officials and doctors. Bangladeshi authorities have not issued an official figure on the death toll.
Bangladesh – a nation of more than 172 million people – is now at a crossroads. The protest leaders have called for Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus to be appointed chief adviser of an interim government. It is not clear yet what form such an administration will take – the country has had caretaker governments before – but restoring stability and trust in its institutions must take priority.
There is much at stake. Bangladesh has one of the world’s largest and youngest Muslim populations. It has made great economic progress in recent years. As recently as April, the World Bank was reporting the country’s economy had made a strong turnaround from the Covid-19 pandemic and projected a 5.7 per cent increase in gross domestic product for this year. The International Monetary Fund had predicted that GDP will pick up to 6.6 per cent next year as imports rebound and foreign exchange pressures ease. It has been a remarkable transformation from one of the world's poorest countries to a lower-middle-income nation.
Much of this progress was achieved with that the World Bank called “prudent macroeconomic policies” carried out during Ms Hasina’s tenure. Yet, too many people felt that they were not sharing in this success. Bangladesh still has serious challenges when it comes to poverty and living conditions. According to the Asian Development Bank, in 2022 nearly 19 per cent of the population lived below the national poverty line and for every 1,000 babies born there, 29 died before their fifth birthday. Last year, nearly six per cent of the employed population earned less than the equivalent of $2.15 a day – the World Bank’s international measure of poverty.
Bangladesh is also one of the countries most exposed to the threats posed by climate change and extreme weather. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that a rise in sea levels and coastal erosion could lead to a loss of 17 per cent of Bangladesh’s land surface and 30 per cent of food production by 2050.
Nevertheless, the dynamism that fuelled its recent economic and developmental successes bodes well for a society that wants to thrive. The task ahead will be hard; the World Bank’s April report pointed out the need for structural reforms to diversify the economy and build resilience over the medium and long term. Bangladesh needs its friends now. But with the right approach that includes a peaceful transition to a more responsive administration, the country can close this chapter and begin a new one.
