Insight and opinion from The National’s editorial leadership
June 13, 2023
The Kurdish-led administration in north-east Syria has announced it will begin trying the thousands of foreign suspected ISIS members who have been languishing in its prisons and camps for several years. The announcement has drawn alarm from many western diplomats, not in the least because the administration’s territory is not a recognised state, and therefore it has no legal jurisdiction to conduct such trials.
It is not the first time Kurdish administrators have made such threats. But they are understandably frustrated about countries’ persistent unwillingness to repatriate their citizens from its jails, and the international community’s seeming inability to come up with another solution, such as an international tribunal.
There would be little need for an international tribunal if western governments would simply take responsibility for their citizens, repatriate them and try them at home.
A common argument in western security circles is that repatriation will be an extremely expensive exercise in pursuing justice without actually achieving it. Domestic courts would be greatly challenged in gathering and consolidating enough evidence to put suspects behind bars, and allowing them to walk free would necessitate monitoring them round-the-clock, potentially for the rest of their lives. Some countries have, indeed, repatriated fighters without successfully prosecuting them.
An international tribunal of the kind the world has seen previously for Rwanda, former Yugoslavia and Cambodia would not solve everything. It would still likely result in many ISIS fighters receiving light sentences or going free – the number of suspects in custody is enormous by international tribunal standards. It is also difficult to see any tribunal created that focuses solely on ISIS fighters getting widespread international support without addressing alleged crimes committed by the Syrian government and other parties to the conflict as well.
This makes such a project unlikely to get off the ground in the first place. Tribunals are normally created with the consent of either the state where the crimes occurred or the UN Security Council. The Syrian government is unlikely to agree, not only because it wants to avoid any legal exposure but also because it would probably insist that its courts should exercise sole jurisdiction for all crimes committed on Syrian soil. And Russia, a close ally of Syria, is likely to veto any proposal pursued through the Security Council.
The only other avenue that has emerged in practice is the idea of domestic trials in Iraq. Such trials have already taken place, but they have been so problematic in their execution (many have lasted no longer than 15 minutes) that few now consider them to be a viable tool for justice.
An alternative idea, which has gained some traction among legal scholars, is to set up a treaty-based court. This could potentially be in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG), where many victims, witnesses and suspects are already located or could easily travel to, though arrangements would have to be made to transfer suspects from Syrian Kurdish custody.
Pursuing this solution would require considerable diplomatic and legal creativity, but it is not impossible. The dozens of countries whose nationals are in Syrian Kurdish prisons could sign a treaty pooling their jurisdiction to prosecute fighters for international crimes and terrorism-related crimes, using a combination of international law (where applicable) and either the laws of suspects’ home countries or KRG and Iraqi law. The treaty could also impose certain parameters, like the exclusion of the death penalty.
The realisation of any such plan (or others) probably remains a long way off. The current global geopolitical climate does not have the world in a particularly co-operative mood. Powerful countries could do without having to confront complicated truths about who bears responsibility for some of the most egregious crimes the world has seen in the past two decades. For Syrian Kurds, however, the truth is very simple: whoever is responsible, it isn’t them.
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Khalifa Mubarak (24) An accomplished centre-back, the Al Nasr defender’s progress has been hampered in the past by injury. With not many options in central defence, he would bolster what can be a problem area.
Ali Salmeen (22) Has been superb at the heart of Al Wasl’s midfield these past two seasons, with the Dubai club flourishing under manager Rodolfo Arrubarrena. Would add workrate and composure to the centre of the park.
Mohammed Jamal (23) Enjoyed a stellar 2016/17 Arabian Gulf League campaign, proving integral to Al Jazira as the capital club sealed the championship for only a second time. A tenacious and disciplined central midfielder.
Khalfan Mubarak (22) One of the most exciting players in the UAE, the Al Jazira playmaker has been likened in style to Omar Abdulrahman. Has minimal international experience already, but there should be much more to come.
Jassim Yaqoub (20) Another incredibly exciting prospect, the Al Nasr winger is becoming a regular contributor at club level. Pacey, direct and with an eye for goal, he would provide the team’s attack an extra dimension.
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
