As the Biden administration ramps up its effort to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, all the indications suggest that Tehran has little interest in making the compromises necessary for easing tensions with Washington.
On the contrary, Iran’s recent conduct points to a hardening of Tehran’s position, as it seeks to increase pressure on the Biden administration to make concessions, rather than the other way around. And, to judge by the delicate diplomatic arrangements set in place for this week’s resumption of talks in Vienna, the Iranians are already dictating the terms of the agenda.
Consequently this has raised concerns that US President Joe Biden is about to repeat the same mistakes made by the Obama administration when it helped negotiate the original 2015 deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by making too many concessions to Iran.
The fact that the JCPOA did not cover other aspects of Iran's suspected nuclear weapons programme – such as ballistic missiles and detonators, as well as the regime's refusal to provide adequate explanations for traces of weapons-grade material discovered at numerous nuclear installations – resulted in former US president Donald Trump withdrawing from the agreement in 2018. But since taking office, Mr Biden has made clear his desire for the US to rejoin the JCPOA.
Initially, the new administration suggested that it wanted to take a more robust approach to the negotiations, suggesting that Washington wanted to include other controversial aspects of Iran’s nuclear activities, and not focus solely on the narrow issue of nuclear enrichment.
To this end Mr Biden said he wanted Iran to cease its violations of the JCPOA, including its acceleration of uranium enrichment to 20 per cent in recent months – just below the threshold required for producing weapons-grade material – before he was prepared to re-enter negotiations. In response, Iran insisted that the punitive economic sanctions imposed by the Trump administration must first be lifted before talks could resume.
But, as events in Vienna this week made clear, it is the Biden administration – and not Iran – that has been obliged to make the first concessions, suggesting that Mr Biden, like Mr Obama whom he served as vice president, will be prepared to capitulate to Iran's demands in his desperation to secure a deal.
For a start, Washington has so far made no move to lift sanctions but already made a number of concessions designed to send a signal to Tehran that it wants better relations.
The decision to remove the terrorist designation applied to Yemen's Houthi rebels, which are backed by Iran, was the first gesture. Since then the White House has been accused of helping secure the release of $7 billion in frozen Iranian assets held by South Korea. The funds were released in February to Iran following consultations with the US.
In addition, the White House has been accused of trying to sidestep legally required Congressional approval to funnel more money to Iran and through a new International Monetary Fund programme, "special drawing rights" (SDRs). According to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal, this would enable Iran to receive an additional $4.5bn, funds that could be used both to strengthen domestic repression and intensify regional adventurism.
By contrast, rather than making any goodwill gestures of its own to Washington, Tehran has persisted with its uncompromising approach on a number of important issues, such as encouraging the Houthis not to engage with the recent Saudi initiative to resume peace talks aimed at ending Yemen's long-running civil war.
Russian contractors work at the Bushehr nuclear reactor site in 2007. The plant opened four years later. Bloomberg
An Iranian technician at the International Atomic Energy Agency inspects the country's Isfahan plant in 2007. Tehran is no longer co-operating with the agency at nuclear sites across the country. EPA
Workers wait to begin constructing a second reactor at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in 2019. AFP
A metal-encased rod with 20 per cent enriched nuclear fuel is inserted into a reactor in Tehran in 2012. AFP
Fomer Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the country's Atomic Energy Organisation chief Ali Akbar Salehi speak at the Bushehr nuclear site in 2015. AFP
Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant has been restarted. EPA
Mehdi Abrichamtchi, chairman of the Peace and Security Committee at the National Council of Resistance of Iran, shows journalists the location of a secret nuclear site in Iran in 2013. AFP
Workers prepare to begin the construction of a second reactor at the Bushehr site. AFP
Iran has also adopted a more aggressive stance towards the UN inspection teams responsible for monitoring its nuclear sites – in violation of its obligations under the JCPOA. It has also failed to respond to a request made by Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, for Iran to "come clean about recent findings of undeclared uranium to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement".
Recent reports received by western intelligence indicate Iran has also resumed efforts to conceal key elements of its nuclear programme from the inspection teams.
Some of this equipment is said to be stored in 75 shipping containers regularly moved to different locations in Iran. It includes machinery, pumps and spare parts for centrifuges, the sophisticated machines that can be used to enrich uranium to weapons grade. Materials such as carbon fibre, which can be used in the production of advanced centrifuges, are being stored at secret sites administered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has overall responsibility for Iran’s nuclear programme.
Kazem Gharib Abadi, Iran's governor to the International Atomic Energy Agency, leaves after the nuclear talks in Vienna this week. Getty Images
Tehran has persisted with its uncompromising approach on a number of important issues
Iran’s disinclination to make any significant concessions to Washington was evident when talks resumed in Vienna this week, when it became clear that Tehran – and not Washington – was dictating the agenda.
Although both the Iranian and American negotiating teams were present in the Austrian capital, at Iran’s insistence there were no direct negotiations between the two delegations. Instead, officials from European countries that are signatories to the JCPOA – Britain, France and Germany – were required to indulge in a form of shuttle diplomacy, passing messages between the two camps.
It is not the first time that Tehran has delivered a diplomatic snub to Washington. In March, it declined to join a meeting of JCPOA parties hosted by the EU because US officials would be attending.
And, so long as the Biden administration allows Tehran to call all the shots, the more likely it is that any new deal over Iran’s nuclear programme will be to the regime’s advantage.
Con Coughlin is a defence and foreign affairs columnist for The National
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New central waste facility on site at expo Dubai South area to handle estimated 173 tonne of waste generated daily by millions of visitors
Recyclables such as plastic, paper, glass will be collected from bins on the expo site and taken to the new expo Central Waste Facility on site
Organic waste will be processed at the new onsite Central Waste Facility, treated and converted into compost to be re-used to green the expo area
Of 173 tonnes of waste daily, an estimated 39 per cent will be recyclables, 48 per cent organic waste and 13 per cent general waste.
About 147 tonnes will be recycled and converted to new products at another existing facility in Ras Al Khor
Recycling at Ras Al Khor unit:
Plastic items to be converted to plastic bags and recycled
Paper pulp moulded products such as cup carriers, egg trays, seed pots, and food packaging trays
Glass waste into bowls, lights, candle holders, serving trays and coasters
Aim is for 85 per cent of waste from the site to be diverted from landfill
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Look north
BBC business reporters, like a new raft of government officials, are being removed from the national and international hub of London and surely the quality of their work must suffer.
