Even in Nigel Farage’s victory there was confusion.
Some three hours before the result was declared in the Clacton by-election, the Reform UK leader told his supporters in a speech at a nearby party that he would not be attending the count. “I’m sad to say that after 33 years of being a candidate in active politics, I’ve been advised tonight by Essex Police that there is an organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result.”
A Reform UK spokesperson said: “Essex Police advised Nigel not to attend the count tonight due to a credible threat against him.”
Not true. Said the police in a statement: “We have a proportionate and robust policing operation to ensure the safety and security of all participants in the count.”
It was typical of a poll that defied reason, despite Mr Farage’s best efforts to portray it as somehow decisive and historic. Characteristic of a politician who also refuses to bow to convention.
Mr Farage already was the Clacton MP, having been elected by a thumping majority in 2024. Faced with a parliamentary inquiry into his receipt of a cash gift of £5 million ($6.75 million) from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and claiming he was the victim of an establishment witch-hunt, he resigned and sought the endorsement of the public.
But none of the other main political parties stood against him, meaning he was reduced to fighting against an array of independent candidates. Perhaps it was the prospect of sharing a platform with a range of single-issue campaigners, comedians and publicity-seekers, rather than serious folks, that so dissuaded him. The thought of witnessing Count Binface, a man with a dustbin over his head celebrate receiving a career-best 9,445 votes, may have been too much.
It would only have served to highlight the recklessness, some might say madness, in Mr Farage’s strategy. After all, having received 22,239 votes, he now returns to Westminster to still face a probe that may well cause his suspension as an MP and trigger another by-election. The good people of Clacton may be prevailed upon to do this all again in the coming weeks.
Then, having called his bluff as they undoubtedly did by agreeing not to fight the first ballot, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens will compete second-time round. Then and only then will we receive a true verdict on how badly Mr Farage has been wounded by the allegations of financial irregularities, whether he can survive as Reform UK leader and if, as he would have us believe, he really is a genuine contender for 10 Downing Street.
Today, that last likelihood appears distant. There is no doubt that whatever he maintains, Mr Farage’s standing is badly weakened. Not only from the revelations regarding his finances, but from the resurgence of Labour under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and, sensing Mr Farage’s vulnerability and capitalising from the defenestration and replacement of Sir Keir Starmer, an emboldened Conservative party. Suddenly, Mr Farage’s progress does not look so assured as it once did.
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage poses with winning councillors outside Havering Town Hall following the 2026 local election results in May. All photos: Getty Images -
Mr Farage is interviewed by GB News near where two men were attacked in the Golders Green area of north London in April 2026 -
Mr Farage embraces former Conservative home secretary Suella Braverman, who had defected to Reform, in London, in January 2026 -
Mr Farage poses with a named shirt on day one of the Reform UK conference in Birmingham in November 2025 -
Mr Farage attends a press conference on law and order in London in August 2025 -
Mr Farage celebrates as Reform candidate Sarah Pochin is declared the winner of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in May 2025 -
Mr Farage speaks on stage during the Reform UK East Midlands Conference in Leicester in January 2025 -
Mr Farage after a woman threw a drink over him at the launch of his general election candidacy at Clacton Pier in 2024 -
Mr Farage shares a joke with boxer Derek Chisora during a visit to a gym in Clacton-on-Sea in 2024 -
Mr Farage at a campaign event in Sunderland in 2024 -
Mr Farage, then Brexit Party leader and member of the European Parliament, before the Brussels parliament was to approve the Brexit deal, in January 2020 -
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump greets Mr Farage at a 2016 campaign rally in Jackson, Mississippi -
Mr Farage, as leader of Ukip and a prominent Vote Leave campaigner, holds up the Daily Express as he returns home after buying newspapers in Westerham in 2016 -
Mr Farage speaks to members of the public at a cafe in Ramsgate in 2016 -
Mr Farage poses with the Ukip's EU referendum poster in Westminster in 2016 -
Mr Farage has a selfie taken as he canvasses in the Thanet South constituency in Broadstairs in 2015 -
Mr Farage is interviewed after being announced as Ukip leader again in 2010 -
Mr Farage on the campaign trail in Winslow in 2010 -
Mr Farage with Lord Willoughby de Broke, left, and Lord Pearson in London in 2007. The Conservative peers had defected to Ukip
That was borne out in part by the by-election. He won 63.3 per cent of the vote, a greater amount than in the general election two years ago. But it was lower than the 71 per cent secured by David Davis in a recent by-election that the other main parties also boycotted.
Mr Farage’s star does appear to be waning, and he is increasingly given to lashing out and exhibiting flashes of temper, none of which transfers well to the national or international leadership stage.
That, however, is not by any means saying he is in permanent decline. Mr Farage is someone who presents himself as a loner, a battler taking a sword to the bigger, established and more powerful figures. It would be foolish indeed to write him off. While his political rivals may jump up and down about his financial affairs – and it suits them to do so – the public has been relatively unmoved, as the by-election showed.
He was once buoyed by close association with Donald Trump and that, too, is diminished. Mr Farage had to endure the humiliation of journeying to Florida, expecting to be received by the US President, but instead was not granted an audience. While that was taken as a sign of distancing, Mr Trump is equally capable of changing his position and embracing him.
Likewise, Mr Burnham is pledging to foster closer links with the EU, a move that enjoys widespread business support. The calls for rapprochement in the face of global economic uncertainty, two major wars and the ongoing tariffs fallout are louder than they have ever been since the UK exit. Again, it would be a mistake to assume that undermines Mr Farage, that the great Brexit architect is undone.
The scar caused by that ferocious debate and the ultimate decision has not gone away. The clamouring for some sort of return, or at least a thawing of relations leading to stronger economic ties, should it harden into a determined diplomatic push, will reopen those wounds. Brexit 2.0, however, would be coloured by something else, which is the continuing illegal migrants crisis. Since the EU referendum, successive British prime ministers have tried and failed to stop the small boats crossing the English Channel. Their failure has bolstered Mr Farage.
Protectionism and securing borders is the prevailing theme, politically and economically, domestically and globally. No one is better placed, in the minds of a large swathe of the British populace, seemingly, to articulate that stance than Mr Farage.
He still then has plenty to aim for. He might find he is soon having to do it once more where Clacton is concerned. Then, that will be because he has been found officially to have transgressed. For most elected politicians, that would signal the end of their careers. With Mr Farage though, nothing is ever so clear-cut. Those who write him off, in the UK and abroad, do so at their peril.
