Andy Burnham, the Labour MP with one hand on the keys to Downing Street after Keir Starmer announced he would step down as British Prime Minister, has declared a decade-long mission statement to restore his country’s prosperity. That would take the country up to 2036 to make up the lost ground in relative performance seen over the past two decades.
The framing struck the wrong note for me because the dynamics of politics in the UK, much of it driven by social media and short videos, spans no more than a few days – forget weeks, and certainly not years. So let’s conduct a thought-experiment that Mr Burnham has 10 weeks to truly change his country’s destiny.
First, he should start in office mindful that he will be the seventh prime minister since 2016. Second, he should note that his predecessor, Mr Starmer, talked in exactly the same terms of 10 years to change the UK. And third, Mr Burnham should be aware that over the course of the next week, Mr Starmer will deliver one of the most consequential decisions for the UK’s place in the world with a new plan for future defence investment.
This blueprint, known in British politics as the Defence Investment Plan – or DIP – is so delayed and underinvested that Mr Starmer’s former defence secretary, John Healey, refused to put his name to it and quit only a month ago.
There is a Nato summit looming next month during which US President Donald Trump will push European countries to increase their contributions to the alliance. This means that the UK must come up with a plan to spend more on security. So a prime minister who has already said he is moving on will set the conditions for a defence revolution that is only just beginning.
Even before July begins, we got a glimpse of what the narrative from the UK at the Nato meeting in Turkey will seek to tout. The Ministry of Defence recently announced that plans to replace ageing warships will be scrapped in favour of building at least six new modern “hybrid” vessels. The decision is to commission six of these Common Combat Vessels instead of six destroyers. In other words, while the number of ships is the same, the unit cost is likely to be much lower.
The statement from the ministry contained an interesting nugget on how long it will take the UK to complete this pivot. “Rather than concentrating capability in a small number of large, expensive ships, the Royal Navy’s shift to a hybrid navy will mix crewed and uncrewed capabilities and be more suited to the pace and nature of modern warfare,” it said. “The funding announced in the DIP allows [bureaucrats] to commence the design work.”
This is something that Mr Burnham inherits – but once in power, he will own that work.
Additional reports say that the incoming prime minister is poised to recruit David Miliband, who was foreign secretary under Gordon Brown, in a “retro” cabinet team of heavyweights. Such an appointment would be brilliant news, because as head of the International Rescue Committee, Mr Miliband has dealt with some of the most devastating humanitarian crises facing the world.
Such an appointment would also amount to an outsourcing of diplomacy and security affairs. This would be similar to the set-up operated by former prime minister Rishi Sunak during his nearly two years in Downing Street. It would ensure that the Foreign Office is well run and able to come back from recent chaos. At another level, it would say to the world that while the UK leadership is prioritising domestic issues, it is also taking seriously its wish to respond to the world.
Mr Burnham has already confirmed as much by announcing that when he takes over as soon as July 17, and when the Labour party can wrap up its leadership nomination process, there will be a bilocation of the prime minister’s office.
Since Robert Walpole, the UK’s first prime minister, moved into 10 Downing Street in 1735, it has been the home and hub of all of his successors. With the idea to move part of the office to the country’s north, Mr Burnham puts a physical location to work on his priorities – including devolution to local governments, upskilling younger members of the workforce and creating new social policies.
The upending of centuries of focus on Whitehall and Westminster is more than just a symbolic shift. It is a dagger at the London-centric nature of UK politics. If successful, July will mark the starting point that will change the UK as we know it. London is a byword for the UK on an international level, hence moving away from that will be neither easy nor without risks.
Well into the 2030s, the impact of these changes will manifest for everyone. In that, Mr Burnham is correct. But given the churn in UK politics and the volatility in political fortunes, no leader – including Mr Burnham – has the right to ask for a decade to make his mark.
If all goes according to the Burnham plan between now and September, his first 10 weeks in power will be the best ones to shape the kind of UK he wants as his legacy.
