As the likelihood of a Labour Party leadership contest and a race to become the UK’s next prime minister diminishes, the focus now is on ministers seeking positions in Andy Burnham’s future cabinet.
A prime minister is always at the peak of their powers when they are choosing a new cabinet. With less than three years to the next general election, those choices will be crucial in defining a Labour government led by Mr Burnham, who is widely expected to replace Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The biggest signal will come when he announces who is to take charge of the country's finances, making clear whether he will swing to the left or tack to the centre with the party's apparent wishes. Current Chancellor Rachel Reeves will almost certainly be ousted.
Cooper for chancellor?
Choosing current Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper for the role would signal a tight fiscal policy with a probable increase in defence spending and a cut to welfare. Ms Cooper combines Treasury experience and credibility with the centre of the party, reassuring investors that fiscal discipline remains intact.
Ed's energy focus
The markets are likely to experience a wobble if Mr Burnham selects the left winger and close confidant Ed Miliband. That option would mean a Burnham premiership is more focused on clean energy and welfare spending with probable tax increases.
Mr Miliband will still be a major figure and might stay on at a strengthened Energy Ministry, overseeing a broader growth and green investment agenda. A key early challenge for Mr Burnham will be whether he overrules Mr Miliband’s resistance to granting new licences for drilling in North Sea oil and gas fields.
David Miliband returns?
Who takes over from Ms Cooper in the Foreign Office if she is moved presents some important questions. If David Miliband, Ed’s brother, was willing to return from the international sector, he could be a candidate.
His global stature, experience as foreign secretary under former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown and strong transatlantic relationships would instantly give a Burnham government diplomatic heft. But Mr Burnham may opt for continuity by retaining Ms Cooper or promoting a senior figure such as former defence secretary John Healey.
If there was a new face at the Foreign Office, it would be the 10th since the Brexit vote a decade ago, stretching from the Tories Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Liz Truss, James Cleverly and David Cameron, to Starmer's first appointment David Lammy, then Ms Truss.
Mahmood to remain
Shabana Mahmood has put in the legwork to remain as Home Secretary and is well regarded across different Labour factions, although her name has also been floated as a possible chancellor. But keeping her at the Home Office would provide continuity on crime, policing and immigration while avoiding unnecessary disruption.
After the resignation of Wes Streeting last month demonstrably showed that Mr Starmer’s time in Downing Street was coming to an end, the former health secretary is now likely to return to the top of government. It is unclear whether a deal was struck for him to drop out of the leadership contest, but he remains a strong candidate for health secretary, the Cabinet Office or even chancellor.
As a senior left-wing Labour figure, Angela Rayner, who was forced to resign as deputy prime minister over a tax issue, will likely be rewarded with a cabinet post, either her old brief in local government or as environment secretary.
Louise Haigh, a close Burnham ally and former transport secretary, is likely to be one of the biggest winners in a reshuffle with a return to cabinet.
Healey back to defence role?
When the Mr Healey resigned as defence secretary over lack of armed forces funding this month it became clear that Mr Starmer’s tenure would be dramatically shortened if Mr Burnham won the Makerfield by-election.
Well regarded by the military and internationally, Mr Healey could well be parachuted back into his old post – a move that would signal the new prime minister is intent on addressing defence challenges. Mr Healey is also a dark horse to become chancellor or foreign secretary, given his extensive work on Ukraine, Nato, the Middle East and European security.
Ultimately, Mr Burnham will want to project a fresh political direction without causing market concerns over a leadership transition.
