US Secretary of State Marco Rubio might have received a standing ovation from European leaders at last week’s Munich Security Conference, but not everyone saw his speech as a big, fat olive branch handed back to Europe.
“It’s more like an abusive love affair,” one Swedish diplomat explained to me, likening the transatlantic relationship to domestic violence. “Europe gets beaten up by the USA. Then they get handed a bouquet of flowers. And suddenly, they are back in love.”
Mr Rubio spoke on the same stage where, one year earlier, the audience listened in horror as JD Vance wagged his finger at “you Europeans” and chastised them on migration and issues of freedom of speech. This year, Mr Rubio’s paean was carefully crafted, not so much to restore relations as to reassure European leaders. But was it a false hope of a partnership that is perhaps damaged beyond repair?
Mr Rubio’s message was to maintain ties – Europe and America “belong together” (again, the domestic violence metaphors) – but the backbone of it was to point out the shared values, culture and heritage between both. I took these attributes to mean the Maga vision of a world that is white and Christian. Mr Rubio’s “reassurance” did get a standing ovation and praise from the likes of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. But I think it was more about the relief that it was not the fiery words of Mr Vance last year.
African leaders can’t be happy about that speech. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa referred to it as a “whole new form of colonialism”, calling on African nations to unite against exploitation, particularly with critical minerals. To many Africans, Mr Rubio’s speech could also be interpreted as a call for a new era of colonialism in response to rapidly shifting global politics.
Andy Kim, the Democratic Senator from New Jersey, told Reuters: “He had the opportunity to talk about Ukraine, Russia, China, other things. Instead, he just talked about mass migration, about these types of internal issues of feeling shame about our history.” On a panel later that day, Mr Kim was asked pointedly how he responded – as an Asian-American son of immigrants. A skilful politician, he dodged the question, but his body language told a different story. He could not have been happy.
Ultimately, the question is: will Europe continue with “European values” or join the “new Western Century”? Will they choose liberalism, or US President Donald Trump’s new world order? Would Europe defend human rights and the rule of law, or join the call to control key supply chains and win markets in the Global South (which some might perceive to mean exploitation)?
In the corridors outside the main hall, the reactions to Mr Rubio’s speech were partly relief – it wasn’t as scary or shocking as Mr Vance, unless you read between the lines. Mr Kim was right – there was no mention of Ukraine and Russia, but Russia was on everyone’s mind throughout the weekend.
The announcement that Alexei Navalny was poisoned by frog toxins (and we were told of Navalny’s murder in his Russian prison at the Munich conference in 2024, with his wife in attendance) gave as strong a message as you could get. Let’s face it: Moscow can do whatever it wants. “Russia is weak,” one diplomat told me. “But they have nuclear weapons.”
Which leads me to my other observation about the conference. Over the past three years, there has been a growing sense of impending doom: the war in Ukraine – where civilian casualties rose by 25 per cent last year; mass killings in Gaza, which are all but ignored in the West; and a humanitarian crisis in Sudan that is monumental.
But this year, people talked more about the concern for an all-out global conflict. If Russia takes Ukraine, the feeling is that China can take Taiwan. (Barely anyone mentioned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet has already broken international law by all but taking the West Bank.)
For me, Munich was partly a relief – the language was softer. But there was also a threat, albeit not as in-your-face as Mr Vance’s. America likes sporting metaphors, and Mr Rubio was clearly saying if you want to play in our team, you do it by our rules.
It was also about preparing for a more transactional world. We see America is “going through something”, as Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin said. We know what she means. The rule of law is deteriorating along with human rights. A free press is being muzzled. Fear is becoming a standard.
Article 2 of the Treaty of Lisbon describes “European values” – human dignity, freedom, equality, the rule of law and human rights. They are meant to be upheld across all EU states. But Europe is now being asked – gently, but also firmly – to join America in a world of supply chains and spheres of influence.
The countries of the Global South have heard this all before. The question is: how will they respond this time, to a new colonialism?
I came away from Munich without any solid answers. I am still worried about ICE arrests, sanctions against prosecutors in the International Criminal Court and the upcoming midterm elections in the US. I am looking carefully at new leaders in America – Senator Mark Kelly is being talked about as a potential front-runner in the Democratic Party.
Most of all, as both an American and a European, I want to know where Europe will go. Will it remain steadfast in its beliefs? Or will appeasement, which happened once before on the eve of the Second World War, be the standard?
