What have the past two years of UAE-Turkey Cepa trade taught us?

Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, Minister of State for Foreign Trade, at the launch of talks between UAE and Turkey in 2022 to double bilateral trade. Photo: Ministry for Foreign Trade

At the time, we could all sense this was a major step forward for the UAE’s new trade agenda – and for the future prosperity of our region. On March 3, 2023, in the conference centre of the Hilton Yas Island Abu Dhabi, ministers and officials from the UAE and Turkey gathered to witness the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Cepa) between our countries, the latest and most significant step in our economic alignment. It was, we both recognised, not just a symbol of our shared commitment to growth but a belief in the power of open, frictionless trade to deliver it.

The UAE-Turkey Cepa came into force on September 1, 2023, instantly removing or reducing tariffs on 82 per cent of product lines, harmonising customs procedures, and establishing avenues for private sector collaboration and investment projects. We projected that within five years it would drive bilateral non-oil trade beyond $40 billion – three times the $13.7 billion we recorded in 2021 – and boost UAE exports to Turkey by 21.7 per cent by 2030.

As we enter October 2025, we now have two years’ worth of data to assess whether the optimism was well-founded. And the picture could hardly be clearer: our Cepa has enabled us to surpass every forecast and, perhaps most importantly, overcome every obstacle in today’s complex trading landscape. In the first 12 months of the Cepa, UAE-Turkey non-oil trade reached $40 billion, representing an increase of 42 per cent over the corresponding period a year earlier. Moreover, in the last five months of 2023, four of which fell under the terms of the Cepa, Turkey received 60 per cent of the UAE’s total bilateral non-oil exports for the year. Our five-year bilateral trade targets had been achieved in less than 18 months.

This remarkable progress has been maintained into its second year. Initial data suggests that bilateral non-oil trade between September 2024 and August 2025 reached around $44 billion – a 12 per cent increase in a year characterised by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Middle East, and a marked decline in global trade. In the first half of 2025, the UAE’s non-oil exports to Turkey reached $7.41 billion, or three times what we exported in the whole of 2019.

Our relationship is more than the exchange of goods, of course. The UAE-Turkey Cepa set out to establish a growth corridor across our region, mobilising capital and facilitating private-sector co-operation to develop priority sectors such as manufacturing, food production, logistics, financial services and renewable energy.

Our relationship is more than the exchange of goods

In July 2023, after the Cepa signing, President Sheikh Mohamed and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a $51 billion investment package that would deliver both economic stability and development. We are now beginning to see these projects materialise across a range of sectors. They include DP World’s strategic merger with Evyap Group, which will see Yarimca and Korfez ports upgraded to process two million shipping containers annually, strengthening Turkey’s role in international supply chains.

AD Ports Group company Noatum Maritime is also seeking to support the development of Turkey’s logistics capabilities. The opening of offices in Istanbul and Izmir will deliver a range of services to the $620 billion worth of sea cargo that moves in and out of the nation’s ports each year, which will include enhancing their connections to the UAE.

There have also been deals in the financial sector. ADQ’s acquisition of Odeabank is part of their plans to increase exposure to Turkey’s banking sector and develop fintech and payment solutions offerings into an emerging consumer market. This summer, Turkish e-commerce platform Trendyol, drone manufacturer Baykar, Chinese financial technology firm Ant International and ADQ entered into a joint venture to develop a new FinTech platform that could provide digital financial services including payments, deposits, loans, insurance and investment products.

The investment is also flowing into UAE. The combined value of Turkish projects in the country now exceeds $17.7 billion, a figure that makes the UAE the 10th-largest recipient of Turkish investment globally – and underlines our ability to connect Turkey’s private sector to global opportunities.

We are, however, still very much at the beginning of the Cepa story. The door to greater co-operation has been opened, but we must help our business communities walk through it. It’s why our leaders reunited in Abu Dhabi in July to witness the signing of seven new co-operation agreements in tourism and hospitality, pharmaceuticals, industry, manufacturing and food-agriculture, which are designed to provide the impetus for new projects and partnerships between us.

What we have seen in the last two years is a significant step in UAE-Turkey relations, but there are many more milestones to reach. The record trade volumes, the concluded deals and the investment pledges to date will ensure we keep striding forward together.