Zohran Mamdani's rise shows change is always constant in electoral politics

Democrat mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani speaks during a rally in New York last week. AP

Democratic politics around the world is a jumble right now.

US President Donald Trump’s re-election last November came with the obvious unpredictability about what he might do next. In Britain, there’s the rise of the new upstart Reform UK party of Nigel Farage. Reform’s successes in local council elections have shocked the traditional Conservative and Labour parties.

Across Europe, voters are also seeking something different from “politics as usual” with some turning to Alternativ fur Deutschland in Germany, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, and other relatively new politicians, parties or groupings in the Netherlands, Spain and elsewhere. In Latin America, Argentina’s mould-breaking President Javier Milei offers his own unique populist style.

And now for Americans, there’s another mould-breaker in Zohran Mamdani. He won a stunning victory in the Democratic Party’s primary for mayor of New York City, one of the highest-profile jobs in politics. The Democrats’ grip on New York means Mr Mamdani is favourite to become mayor in November’s election. He is currently a New York assembly member, 33 years old, left wing, a socialist, a strong critic of Israel, and some call him the Republican Party’s “great new bogeyman”.

In the primary, he defeated the Democratic establishment figure, 67-year-old Andrew Cuomo, the son of a former governor of New York state Mario Cuomo – and himself a former governor of the state, from 2011 until his resignation in 2021. Mr Cuomo quit after a slew of scandals and sexual harassment allegations. His comeback has now failed spectacularly.

Mr Cuomo represented the old politics. He reportedly spent $25 million on the campaign and was backed by big names from the past, including former US president Bill Clinton and former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg. Mr Mamdani spent just $1 million on the campaign and triumphed in what looks like a vote for the future. He skilfully used social media and presented himself as the candidate for change who might break the mould of “politics as usual”.

Argentine President Javier Milei and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pose behind a chainsaw. AFP

That, of course, is what links Mr Mamdani to the other mould-breakers mentioned above, even though they have very different political ideas and styles.

Mr Trump, Ms Meloni, Mr Milei, Mr Farage and now Mr Mamdani all represent – in very different ways – dissatisfaction with traditional politics and parties. There is a deep malaise across various democracies, a feeling that in the 2020s the world is in turmoil and the old ideas and old parties do not have the answers. In fact, they may not even understand the questions.

Mr Trump’s astonishing comeback in last year’s election, Mr Farage’s latest vehicle in Reform and Mr Mamdani himself have similarities in the way they cut through to voters by avoiding or downplaying the traditional politics of the past – network TV interviews and opinion columns in traditional newspapers. Instead, they directly engage voters, especially new or previously uncommitted voters, on whatever social medium platforms seem most relevant and of interest to the voters themselves.

Mr Mamdani is a member of Democratic Socialists of America, a tiny left-wing organisation of about 12,000 members. New York City has eight million citizens. Those 12,000 DSA members are politically engaged activists who are well aware of the kind of medium that connects to disaffected voters.

Mr Mamdani is also said to have the support of several thousand grassroots workers. They knocked on doors and spoke to people on the street, while the Cuomo campaign spent money on traditional TV, radio and newspaper ads. The New York Times reported that Mr Mamdani’s campaign energised new voters to such an extent that in “the 14 days leading up to the registration deadline for the Democratic primary, about 37,000 people registered to vote, compared with about 3,000 people in the same period in 2021”.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks during a media conference at the Nato summit in The Hague, Netherlands last month. AP

Political campaigners sometimes speak of the “air war” of TV advertisements and the “ground war” of activists knocking on doors and speaking directly to voters. The Mamdani phenomenon suggests the ground war plus social media really can energise those who think that traditional politicians simply take them for granted. The two linked themes of successful political campaigns in democracies in the 2020s appear to be dissatisfaction with the old ways and old parties and a desperation to try something – perhaps anything – new.

The phenomenon of candidates claiming to represent “change” is among of the oldest traditions in politics. Mr Clinton did it in 1992 calling himself a “New Democrat”. George W Bush won the presidency eight years later claiming he was a very different “Compassionate Conservative”. In Britain, Tony Blair won a landslide in 1997 saying he represented “New Labour”.

I once asked a top US political analyst why words like “New” and “Compassionate” resonate so well with voters. He told me such words mean that “anything we were in the past that you like, we are still that. But anything that we were in the past that you don’t like, well, we’re not that anymore”.

What we are seeing, therefore, from Argentina to Germany, the US to the UK, and in New York City, is that a demand for change from the failed old ways is the one thing about politics that never really changes.