If there was ever any doubt about American engagement in the often-turbulent Middle East, the first 79 days of the new administration of US President Donald Trump should dispel any sceptics.
US diplomats and White House emissaries are blanketing the region on peace missions. The US Navy is fully engaged in active combat operations in the Red Sea, with a second carrier battle group on its way. Gulf investors have committed trillions in new US-focused deals in AI, energy and infrastructure. An Arab capital is host to diplomatic negotiations with American mediators over a European war. And Mr Trump’s first foreign trip of his second term, as it was during his first, will be to the region in the coming weeks.
American interests, attention and presence in the Middle East seem as enduring as ever. Yet friends and foes in the region are alternatively bewildered and emboldened by Washington’s policy swings across six presidential administrations since the new century.
After every US presidential election cycle, Middle Eastern leaders and observers are left wondering, which America will show up next? Is there any possibility of an enduring American consensus and policy towards the region? What can the region expect from the US? At the same time Washington wonders, what can the US expect from the region? Is there scope for effective regional burden-sharing that eases the demands on America’s attention?
Now more than ever, in a moment of extreme danger and renewed possibility, clarity and predictability among friends are critical. This was the goal over the past two days, when some of the most senior leaders from the US, the UAE and the region, including Israel, converged on Abu Dhabi. At the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) Summit, they reinforced the basic pillars of the US-Middle East relationship. But perhaps more importantly, they prompted each other to reimagine and modernise an 80-year compact fundamental to regional and American security and prosperity.
Now more than ever, in a moment of extreme danger and renewed possibility, clarity and predictability among friends are critical
As a Republican and Democrat who worked at the highest levels in the US government and serve as honorary co-chairs of MEAD, we share a deep belief in America’s unshakeable commitment to this region. This should extend across the political divide and from one president to the other. It existed on January 20, as Mr Trump took office, just as it did earlier that morning when his predecessor, Joe Biden, concluded his term. And it was evident throughout the presidential transition period when both teams worked collaboratively to achieve a ceasefire-for-hostage deal in Gaza.
As is perfectly clear to the world, US presidents have different priorities, different styles and different policies. This week in Abu Dhabi, senior US administration officials described Mr Trump’s efforts to end the war in Gaza, set a new course with Iran, and expand on the Abraham Accords. The US shared what it expects from its regional allies: to contribute more to mutual defence and stability, to further bolster regional diplomacy, and to be an active partner in American growth and innovation at home, in the region, and around the world.
To offer a full perspective on US policy, former Biden administration officials at the Summit provided critical context and understanding to their decision-making. The Americans, Republicans and Democrats, were challenged not just by each other, but by their regional counterparts eager for greater clarity and insight.
Regional partners shared their expectations and how they would like to see America’s role play out in the Middle East. If there is one thing that connects every ally in this region, it is the desire to see America engaged and attentive.
The range of issues is expansive, and the region is undergoing tectonic shifts. But realism and vision can share a stage. Business and policy leaders discussed the vast potential of a more integrated, more normalised, and more peaceful Middle East. The region’s future is taking shape as a global hub and powerhouse of advanced technologies, energy innovation, forward-looking capital, and leading-edge logistics.
There should be no doubt. America wants to be a part of this shared future. Across administrations and partisan politics, the US has too much history and so much at stake in the Middle East. This week at MEAD, we engaged deeply, explained clearly, and listened actively. We owe the region and ourselves nothing less. We must advance each other’s diplomatic goals, invest in each other’s long-term economic prosperity, and strengthen our common defences.
American exceptionalism is not always easy for our friends to understand or accept, but it is far better than American isolationism. America cannot abandon or ignore the world. Instead, it must work together with trusted, capable and powerful allies to achieve shared objectives.
Those are the goals of MEAD.
Elliott Abrams is a former US diplomat who currently serves as senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations
Thomas R Nides is a former US diplomat who currently serves as vice chairman, strategy and client relations at Blackstone
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The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991.
Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.
In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.
