Business abhors uncertainty. There we were, trucking along, with a world order reasonably established, albeit with the prolonged war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict. Everyone knew their place, had a firm idea of where they sat. Companies were able to look ahead and to plan, safe in the knowledge they were on the right lines.
Then, into the mix comes Donald Trump and everything is up in the air. The brightest brains using the smartest algorithms have been set the task of modelling a series of what ifs. They might as well not bother; such is the mercurial nature of the new US president.
What we are now into is the challenge governments, companies and markets are left pondering. It is not diplomacy as we know it.
Gone are the traditional niceties of conducting such discussions in private. He likes to do things in the open, in full view, blindsiding his opponents and provoking consternation across the globe’s capitals and financial centres.
As others say will he, won’t he, Trump is repeating “could”. Hair is being torn out in large clumps as strategists try and second-guess his moves. Not least those in the oak lined corporate boardrooms who have been so conditioned to feeding off a system built to work for them.
In the UK, the one subject that is causing the most consternation in the boardrooms – and at the Treasury and Downing Street – is tariffs. On the election trail, he referred to them as ‘the most beautiful word in the dictionary’.
While that may not be a widely shared view, it played to his ‘America First’ agenda. We know that foremost in his sights are China, Mexico and Canada. Time and again, they have been singled out for Mr Trump’s vitriol.
He has talked of a 25 per cent levy on all goods from the US’s immediate neighbours and 60 per cent on imports from China. Globally, he has mentioned 10 per cent. For the UK, the effect could further weaken an already fragile domestic economy.
Ahmet Kaya, an economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, said: “The UK is a small, open economy and would be one of the countries most affected.” NIESR estimates that over two years UK inflation would be 3 – 4 points higher while interest rates would be 2 – 3 points higher.
Retaliation
The resulting retaliation would also damage the US. Its growth would fall between 1.3 and 1.8 per cent in the first two years of the tariffs coming in. It’s the knowledge that the US would also suffer that may explain Mr Trump’s pulling back from the brink on his first day in office.
He said he “could” impose levies of 25 per cent on Canada and Mexico by February 1 and called for his officials to study those countries as well as China. His attitude to the latter was markedly restrained. Mr Trump, though, is nothing if not transactional, something he honed over decades in Manhattan real estate.
He chose to couple fees against China with a proposed deal over the future of TikTok. The US should be entitled to half of the China-owned popular short video platform. If no sale was forthcoming, he would view that as a ‘hostile’ act and tariffs would follow. They could be as high as 100 per cent. “I’m not saying I would, but you certainly could do that.”
The very notion that the whole, delicate issue of imports and trade with Beijing, one he laboured during the presidential campaign, should be used as a bargaining chip to determine the ownership of a social media site is, to say the least, unusual and unexpected. But that is Mr Trump.
Golf rules
In the UK, the most anxious wait is in the automotive sector. The US is the second-largest market for UK car exports. We buy from abroad and send the vehicles we manufacture overseas – eight out of 10 cars produced in the UK are sold elsewhere. That makes it an industry especially vulnerable to tariff battles. Another is Scotch whisky. The US is the largest market for whisky exports. In Mr Trump’s first term, Scotland’s distilleries suffered from retaliatory measures. They could be in for the same again.
This, typically, is where it verges into the surreal. The new White House occupant is especially vexed that one of the jewels in his golf course empire, at Turnberry on Scotland’s Ayrshire coast, is not on the Open roster, having hosted the prestigious tournament in the past. The importance of his favourite pastime to Mr Trump should never be underestimated. In his last presidency, he spent many hours on the golf course. Sure enough, his first stop after flying to Washington from his golf and country club at Mar-a-Lago in Florida was to watch the fireworks at another of his golf clubs, Trump National in Sterling, Virginia. There’s free marketing for you.
The reasoning of the organisers, the Royal & Ancient, based in St Andrews, also in Scotland, is that the association with Trump makes it too political. If the whisky makers, several of whom must be members of the illustrious R&A, know what is good for them they should be pressing hard for its reinstatement.
Likewise, if the R&A knows what is good for Scotland and for Britain, it may consider relenting. It’s that left field with Mr Trump – it’s part personal and it mixes business with government.
Other sectors at risk of harm are pharmaceuticals and aerospace. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have the golf card up their sleeves. They face the danger of a tariff war seeing US customers buy American, a policy that Mr Trump will only encourage.
They, like other exporters, will be hoping that he does not dwell on import levies, that his experts tell Mr Trump the downside for the US will be too great. Instead, they would like him to focus on another topic high on his wishlist: deregulation. Unfettered US public spending, even if it’s reduced in response to his desire to cut waste, would have a galvanising effect.
In Britain and around the world, the waiting goes on. Meanwhile, for many, baldness looms.
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
MATCH INFO
English Premiership semi-finals
Saracens 57
Wasps 33
Exeter Chiefs 36
Newcastle Falcons 5
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERobert%20Lorenz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Liam%20Neeson%2C%20Kerry%20Condon%2C%20Jack%20Gleeson%2C%20Ciaran%20Hinds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE DETAILS
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Dir: Ron Howard
Starring: Alden Ehrenreich, Emilia Clarke, Woody Harrelson
3/5
