Israel's war on Hezbollah is not an 'opportunity' for Lebanon

The rubble of a house destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in which three people died. Carl Court / Getty Images

It’s galling to hear policymakers in the US, Israel and elsewhere suggest that the devastating blows Israel has dealt to Hezbollah and Lebanon have created “an opportunity to put Lebanon on a better path”.

First and foremost, it’s horribly insensitive. There are, to date, thousands dead, major sections of Beirut destroyed, and a quarter of Lebanon’s people internally displaced without adequate shelter, food and services. And the toll continues to mount.

To suggest that good can come from this enormous human tragedy is disgraceful. Such a view not only dishonours the victims, but it is also akin to putting “ashes in the mouths” of those who have lost loved ones and are in mourning.

This mindset is also dangerously naive as it ignores the lessons of history.

Residents refuse to leave Lebanese village despite Israeli strikes

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Recall how, in the face of similar conflicts in 1982 and 2006, we were told that they would also be opportunities. Each involved Israel’s overwhelming use of force. In each instance, Israel said that its “enemies would be vanquished ushering in a new day”. In the end, each only resulted in a more unsettled situation with a more hostile foe rising from the ashes left behind.

This was because at the root of each of these conflicts were real grievances born of injustice, which gave rise to movements of resistance. Instead of addressing and resolving these grievances, Israel, with the full-throated support of the US, saw force as the only acceptable solution. What they said, in effect, is: “Once we punish them and pound them into submission, all will be well.” This approach hasn’t worked before, and it won’t work now.

At the heart of these deep grievances is the historical injustice done to the Palestinian people. Former US president Bill Clinton described it eloquently when, during his visit to Gaza in 1998, he told an assembled group of Palestinian leaders that he knew their history of having been “dispossessed and dispersed among the nations”. And for the Lebanese, the grievances include both their abiding fury over Israel’s more than two-decade-long hostile occupation of the south of Lebanon that resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people, and the many problems they have faced as a result of the country’s system of governance.

None of this is to say that the various Palestinian militia groups or Hezbollah haven’t made grave errors, and at times crimes, as they have acted to address the grievances of their constituencies. What it does say is that this effort to violently eliminate these groups is short-sighted, at best, and is no solution, as it does not address the source of the grievances that make them appealing in the first place. This is a recipe for disaster.

In the coming years we’ll most likely see: the emergence of a Hamas 2.0; a reconstituted movement in Lebanon; anger and bitterness directed at Israel and the US; and a region more unstable that it has been

And finally, to ignore the responsibility that Israel bears for its actions that have created much of the pain at the heart of the problem – and then refusing to press them to change direction – only ensures that the grievances will metastasise into more virulent forms.

This is where we are today.

In an effort to eliminate resistance to their occupation and annexation of Palestine, Israel is committing what many describe to be genocide in Gaza coupled with a reign of violent terror across the West Bank. Meanwhile, with Hezbollah launching missiles into Israel to back the survival of its “resistance ally” in Palestine, Israel has now turned its attention to methodically eliminating the leadership and cadre of Hezbollah.

In both Gaza and Lebanon, Israel has pursued this effort at “total victory” without much regard for civilian casualties or damage to the broader society and its infrastructure. Seeing Iran as the main backer of both Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel has gone a step further by attacking Iranian sites and assassinating Iranian allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iran itself – bringing the Middle East to the brink of a devastating regional war.

While the US worries aloud about the dangers of expanding this war, it has done little to restrain Israel’s behaviour. Washington has established red lines that Israel continues to cross; expressed concern with civilian casualties that Israel ignores; and repeatedly put forward ceasefire proposals that Israel rejects. All the while, it is extending Israel with sophisticated deadly weaponry and unlimited diplomatic support.

The result is Israeli impunity, more Arab casualties and greater suffering, and a Middle East ever further from addressing the problems at the root of the conflict. When the fighting ends, if anything, the grievances will be even greater.

Greeks and Greek-Cypriots on board a Hellenic Air Force C130 being evacuated from Lebanon. Reuters

People greet their family members arriving from a commercial flight from Beirut at Heathrow Airport in London. EPA

Gigi Khalifa, 46, with her daughter Jood, 15, and son Karim, 12, speak to the media after being evacuated from Lebanon, in Larnaca, Cyprus. Reuters

A plane prepares to depart from Eindhoven Air Force base for Beirut to evacuate Dutch citizens. EPA

German citizens arrive at Beirut's airport as they flee Lebanon. AFP

Greek citizens, who where evacuated from Beirut, arrive outside the Foreign Ministry building in Athens. EPA

Passengers pose for a picture after disembarking a Colombian government evacuation flight from Lebanon at El Dorado International Airport in Bogota. AFP

Greeks and Greek-Cypriots prepare to board a Hellenic Air Force C130 in Beirut. Reuters

Spanish military personnel boarding a plane headed to Beirut, at the Torrejon military base in Madrid. EPA

Clea Rita Barsamian with her father after being evacuated from Lebanon, at Larnaca International Airport, Cyprus. Reuters

People in Beirut take their suitcases to a yacht that will ferry people to Cyprus. Getty Images

If history is prologue, in the coming years we’ll most likely see: the emergence of a Hamas 2.0; a reconstituted movement in Lebanon with an axe to grind with both Israel and those who its people feel betrayed them; a bottomless well of anger and bitterness directed at both Israel and the US; and a region more unstable that it has been.

That said, there is no opportunity in this tragedy. In fact, there is only one thing about which we can be certain. And that is that if Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon continues in this way it will not end well.

Instead of naive fantasies about opportunities, the only logical step forward is to end this conflict now. For that to happen, the US, as is said, “needs to put on its big boy pants”, tell Israel to “stop”, and back this up by suspending arms shipments. At that point, Washington will need to address the human cost and work to alleviate some of the suffering.

Then, and only then, can anyone begin to assess the steps that must be taken to deal with the grievances at the root of this tragedy. That’s not an opportunity. It’s a responsibility.