The simplest way for Kamala Harris to expand her lead over Donald Trump

If US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, were to take a decisive stance demanding that Israel agree to an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded aid to Palestinians, she would expand her vote lead over her Republican opponent, Donald Trump. This is one of the key findings of a recent poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute working with pollster John Zogby. Between the Republican and Democratic conventions, the institute surveyed 2,505 US voters to assess how the war in Gaza and US policy towards Israel’s conduct of the war would affect their votes in November . What the poll found was that 15 per cent of all voters say that the crisis in Gaza would be “very important” in determining their vote (with another 33 per cent saying it’s “somewhat important”). But on this issue, like many others in today’s America, there is a deep partisan divide – with Republicans more supportive of Israel and Democrats favouring Palestinians. Looking more closely at the data, it becomes clear that the partisan divide results from deep differences in the views of the demographic groups forming each party’s base – with younger and non-white voters more sympathetic towards Palestinians and critical of Israel, and older, white and “born-again” Christians much more favourable towards Israel. For example, most voters in all groups, except Republicans and “born-again” voters, disapprove of the way Israel is conducting the war, feel Israel has used too much force in Gaza, want an immediate ceasefire, and oppose unrestricted financial and military support for Israel if it continues to operate in a manner that puts civilian lives at risk. A plurality of all voters (43 per cent) disapprove of how Israel is conducting the war, with only one third approving. Those disapproving include 54 per cent of Democrats and 52 per cent of young voters. In addition, 36 per cent of all likely voters feel that Israel has used too much force, including 46 per cent of 18-34-year-olds. One area where there is near unanimity is with regard to the importance of an “immediate ceasefire”. Three quarters of all voters say this is important to them – one-half say “very important” and another one-quarter say “somewhat important”. Only 11 per cent say it’s “not important”. This super-majority includes Democrats, Republicans and independents and majorities of every demographic sub-group. The most substantial majorities come, of course, from young and non-white voters. Only very small percentages in all groups say an immediate ceasefire is not important. Another area where there is strong support from most sub-sets of voters is in response to a question asking whether Israel should continue to receive unrestricted US aid or whether that aid should be conditioned on Israel’s use of that aid in a way that harms civilians. Only 28 per cent feel Israel should always receive unrestricted aid, while 51 per cent say there should be no unrestricted aid if Israel endangers civilians. On this question, GOP voters are evenly split at 40 per cent, while by a margin of 59 per cent to 20 per cent of Democrats oppose unrestricted aid to Israel. Independents oppose it 56 per cent to 26 per cent. Overall, the administration under President Joe Biden receives low marks for its handling of the war – 31 per cent positive and 50 per cent negative – a view shared by voters in all parties and demographic groups. The poll reveals that this dissatisfaction provides an opportunity for Ms Harris. When asked how it would affect their vote if Ms Harris were to demand that Israel agree to an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded human aid into Gaza, voters overwhelmingly support such a move, while only a scant number oppose it. A deeper look into the numbers shows significant gain and very little risk for Ms Harris by taking this stand, including very positive outcomes and few negatives among most key groups, including a plurality of Jewish voters. It would also win her the support of a plurality of those traditionally Democratic voters who are currently supporting third-party candidates or who remain undecided. Overall, if Ms Harris were to take this stand, her vote tally would increase from 44 per cent to 50 per cent. The same positive results hold true if Ms Harris were to support a suspension of arms shipments and withhold diplomatic support for Israel until there was a ceasefire and withdrawal of forces from Gaza. Such a stand would increase her support from 44 per cent to 49 per cent. The poll also revealed that Democrats, concerned with Mr Biden’s age and capacity, were overwhelmingly supportive of his decision to step down as a candidate. This was especially true among Democratic voters. The President’s policy towards Gaza was also a factor, especially among young and non-white voters. At the start of August, Ms Harris held a slim lead against Mr Trump in both a head-to-head and multi-candidate contest. This poll found the same to be true. Both Ms Harris and Mr Trump have consolidated support among voters from their respective parties. Ms Harris’s favourable/unfavourable ratings are better than Mr Trump’s, with her strongest support coming from young and non-white voters. Mr Trump’s support is strongest among white and born-again voters. Given the deep divisions in the American electorate, the presidential contest will most probably remain close. One area where Ms Harris can grow support is by building on her already-stated compassion for Palestinian suffering, her call for an immediate ceasefire, and her implied concern for how Israel has acted in this war by making clear that there will be consequences if the war continues, a step Mr Biden has been loath to take.