Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is a UAE-based retired professor of political science. He is currently a non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University
March 27, 2024
The Israel-Gaza war has brought a second Nakba upon the Palestinian people, but it does not represent a tipping point for the Middle East in the same way that the first Nakba more than seven decades ago did for the wider region.
The ongoing war has displaced 2.3 million Palestinians, which is three times the number of people who were forced to flee their homes in 1948. More than 32,000 people have been killed in Gaza over the past nearly six months, which, according to some estimates, is more than double the casualty count in 1948. And yet the first Nakba was truly transformational in a way that the current tragedy is not.
To be sure, this conflict has its winners and losers – and it has already brought about some notable changes.
Hamas’s reign over Gaza appears to have ended indefinitely. It is very likely that the Israeli people will finally have the perfect alibi to get rid of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the war. And the outpouring of international support for a free Palestine is both refreshing and welcome, although it might not last for long.
But these changes alone are not enough to usher in a new era in the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict. They are not expected to make a huge dent in the stubborn Middle Eastern politics either. Parts of the region will remain unstable, with Israel and Iran being the major sources of instability. In short, don’t expect fundamental change after the dust has settled.
A protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in Tel Aviv this week. Reuters
The war has not impeded the wider region’s momentum towards de-escalation
Israeli politics will continue to surge rightwards. Its brutal occupation will harden further with more annexations expected, as a majority of Israelis reject international calls for a two-state solution. The country will remain stubbornly defiant, refusing to learn the hard lessons from Hamas’s October 7 attacks.
The war has failed to bring together the Palestinian polity. One would have assumed that the ongoing disaster in Gaza would bring the leaders of Fatah and Hamas closer to one another. Not a chance. The gap between these two leading groups persists. Their divisions may even have widened and deepened.
The Arab world, meanwhile, has been unable to secure a ceasefire. Israel is largely dismissive of Arab concerns, as it has been systematically for the past seven decades. Surprisingly, the Arab street has remained relatively quiet. While we see weekly protests in solidarity with Palestine in some western capitals, such demonstrations are rare in Arab cities.
Meanwhile, the war proves that Iran intends to remain a regional spoiler. Tehran is exploiting the misery in Gaza to acquire legitimacy and popularity at the expense of moderate Arab states in the region. On balance, it is neither a winner nor a loser as a result of the conflict. Even if Hamas is eventually defeated militarily, Tehran is buoyed by the fact that the Houthis are taking on a superpower like the US in the Red Sea. In other words, the war has not changed Iran’s regional behaviour.
A ship in the Suez Canal heading towards the Red Sea in Ismailia, Egypt. Houthi rebels in Yemen have pledged to disrupt all shipping destined for Israel through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Getty Images
Sailors on the USS Mason during Operation Prosperity Guardian. Photo: US Navy
A ship travelling south through the Suez Canal. Getty Images
The officer of the watch on the bridge of HMS Diamond in the Red Sea. Reuters
A container ship in the Suez Canal near Ismailia, Egypt. Getty Images
A televised statement by the Houthis' military spokesman Yahya Sarea in Sanaa, Yemen, after a large-scale missile and drone attack by the group against shipping lanes in the Red Sea. EPA
A ship in the Suez Canal heading towards the Red Sea. Getty Images
On the bridge of HMS Diamond as Sea Viper missiles are fired in the Red Sea to combat a barrage of Houthi drones and missiles. Photo: Ministry of Defence via AP
It is also worth pointing out that the war has not impeded the wider region’s momentum towards de-escalation. Detente remains the focus for a number of countries. The mood for conversation over confrontation prevails. For example, despite their differences over the war itself, Iran and the six Gulf countries are still talking to one another.
Finally, the war has hardly changed the US’s commitment to Israeli security. Occasional differences over policy choices are not new. Additionally, Middle East centrality to American politics has been reaffirmed.
Washington is seen to be engaging with the region, with one notable change being the Biden administration’s interest in creating a “Saudi-centred Middle East” in return for Riyadh establishing ties with Israel. This is happening even as anti-American sentiment is on the rise throughout the region as an outcome of the US’s support for Israel in the war. Washington is no stranger to anti-American sentiments, they fluctuate quickly.
None of this is to say that the Gaza war is not tragic on a massive scale, but it is hardly transformational. It will not bring about a sea change in the Middle East’s geopolitical status quo. It will certainly go down in history as a conflict that the International Court of Justice characterised as a “plausible” genocide, and which – tellingly – the world didn’t do enough to end. This, then, means that – unfortunately – it is likely to be forgotten beyond the region within a few short years.
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
World Sevens Series standing after Dubai
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia
THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
