It would be hard to imagine a worse start to 2024 for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The administration of US President Joe Biden’s $60 billion aid package for Ukraine that has sparked an election-year tug-of-war has been delayed in Congress for months. The resulting shortage of weapons and ammunition probably enabled Russian forces to take the eastern city of Avdiivka and nearby villages last month – Moscow’s largest territorial gain in a year.
That defeat has left American military advisers increasingly frustrated with Kyiv’s strategy of seeking to defend its territory in several theatres simultaneously. Ukraine’s second leading foreign backer, Germany, refuses to send its long-range Taurus missiles because, unlike those Ukraine has on hand, they can reach the Russian capital, potentially provoking Kremlin fury.
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A soldier of the Ukrainian National Guard holds his position in the Serebryan Forest, in temperatures of -15°C in January 2024, in Kreminna, Donetsk Oblast. Getty Images -
Classmates play with rifles made from Lego blocks after school, in Vysokopillya, December 2023. Getty Images -
Leonid, a 38-year-old Ukrainian soldier suffering from severe mental trauma, cranial trauma and shrapnel wounds, does his physical training session at a psychiatric hospital in Kyiv, in October 2023. Getty Images -
Gravediggers make new graves for the victims of a recent Russian missile strike, at Hroza cemetery, in October 2023. Getty Images -
Oleksander, suffering from a hand injury, relaxes during a speleotherapy session, an alternative medicine respiratory therapy, at a rehabilitation center for soldiers in Kyiv, in October 2023. Getty Images -
Volodymyr assists his wife Anastasia, as she has contractions before the birth of their first baby, at a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, in September 2023. Ukraine’s birth rate since the start of the war the country's birth rate has plummeted by 28 per cent. Getty Images -
Friends and relatives mourn the death of fighter pilot Andrii Pilshchykov, 30, who was killed along with two other pilots in a mid-air plane crash in Kyiv, in August 2023. Getty Images -
Ukrainian recruits salute the flag as they attend a commemorative service marking Ukraine's Independence Day, in August 2023, in a training camp in the south of England. Getty Images -
Damage from a missile that hit the Chernihiv Regional Academic Ukrainian Music and Drama Theatre, killilng seven people, in August 2023. Getty Images -
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speak to the media at the Nato Summit in July 2023, in Vilnius, Lithuania. Getty Images -
People wait for a transfer on a pontoon in a flooded area as the result of the Kakhovka dam destruction in June 2023 in Afanasiivka village, Mykolaiv region. Getty Images -
State workers and Ukrainian military personnel inspect the crater left behind by a missile strike in Dnipro, in May 2023. Getty Images -
A grad missile is launched on the Donetsk fron tline in April 2023. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian sniper with the 28th Brigade moves to a fighting position in a front-line trench facing Russian troops in March 2023 outside of Bakhmut. Getty Images -
A damaged bust of Vladimir Lenin lies in the street in March 2023 in in the strategic town of Lyman. Getty Images -
A member of Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade fires a rocket-propelled grenade at Russian positions near Marinka in February 2023. Reuters -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses MPs in Westminster Hall, London, in February 2023. Getty Images -
Destroyed buildings 32km west of the front lines in Donetsk in January 2023. Getty Images -
An anti-aircraft gun in January 2023 fires at Russian positions near Bakhmut, Donetsk. Reuters -
Destruction in the village of Bohorodychne, Donetsk, in January 2023. AFP -
A Ukrainian artilleryman discards an empty shell on the outskirts of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, in December 2022. AFP -
Children receive presents from a Ukrainian soldier dressed as Santa on Christmas Eve 2022 in Sloviansk. Getty Images -
More than 1,000 missiles and rockets fired by Russian forces collected for cataloguing in Kharkiv in December 2022. Getty Images -
The Metro provides shelter as Russia launches another missile attack on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, in December 2022. Getty Images -
Children at a PE class in Kyiv after Russia abandoned its attempt to seize the capital in November 2022. Getty Images -
A sniper searches for Russian positions on the bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson in November 2022. Getty Images -
Graffiti by Banksy on a wall among the debris in Borodyanka in November 2022. Getty Images -
Ukrainian flags flutter around graves in a cemetery for soldiers killed in action in Kharkiv in October 2022. Getty Images -
Parts of a drone, which Ukrainian authorities said was Iranian-made, after a Russian strike in Kyiv in October 2022. Reuters -
An elderly woman is helped across a damaged bridge in Bakhmut in October 2022. Getty Images -
Fuel tanks ablaze on damaged sections of the Kerch bridge in Crimea, in October 2022. Reuters -
A destroyed bridge makes crossing the Donets river difficult, in Staryi Saltiv, east of Kharkiv, in September 2022. AFP -
Firefighters at a thermal power plant in Kharkiv damaged by a Russian missile strike in September 2022. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr with his daughter Nikole at Lviv railway station in August 2022. Getty Images -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and then-British prime minister Boris Johnson read a plaque in Kyiv in August 2022 dedicated to the latter for his support. Getty Images -
Destroyed Russian military equipment on Khreshchatyk street in Kyiv. The materiel was turned into an open-air military museum ahead of Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24. AFP -
Shakhtar Donetsk v Metalist Kharkiv kicks off the Ukrainian Premier League season in August 2022 amid fears of bomb and missile alerts. EPA -
Ukrainian servicemen fire an American-made 155mm M777 howitzer in July 2022 in the Kharkiv area. EPA -
A bomb crater on the Antonovsky bridge across the Dnipro river in Kherson, July 2022. AFP -
Maksym and Andrii with plastic guns at a 'checkpoint' they set up while playing in Kharkiv, July 2022. AP -
Ukrainian troops on Snake Island in June 2022. Reuters -
A woman evacuated from an area of conflict in June 2022 contemplates what the next move might be. AP -
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Kyiv in June 2022. Getty Images -
Graves in Irpin cemetery, May 2022. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian soldier trapped within the besieged Azovstal Iron and Steel Works complex in Mariupol in May 2022. Reuters -
The wreckage of a Russian helicopter in a bomb-cratered field in Biskvitne, May 2022. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian army officer inspects a grain warehouse shelled by Russian forces in May 2022 near Novovorontsovka, Kherson. Getty Images -
A boy from Mariupol arriving at an evacuation point in Zaporizhzhia in May 2022. Getty Images -
A Russian serviceman on guard outside Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in May 2022. AFP -
Oksana searches for salvageable items on the destroyed second floor of her home in Hostomel, April 2022. Getty Images -
A floral memorial wall in Lviv for Ukrainian civilians killed during the Russian invasion, April 2022. Getty Images -
People fleeing Lviv, eastern Ukraine, in April 2022, wait for a bus that will take them to Poland. Getty Images -
A Russian soldier patrols a bombed Mariupol theatre in April 2022, as Moscow intensified its campaign to take the strategic port city. AFP -
A Ukrainian celebrates success in Hostomel in April 2022. Getty Images -
Julia Palovskaya reads to children during an air raid drill in the basement shelter at a preschool in Lviv, April 2022. Getty Images -
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Bucha in April 2022, where hundreds of bodies were found in the street and it was claimed the Russian leadership was responsible for killing civilians. AFP -
Oleh Smolin, 23, who suffered leg injuries from Russian shelling in April 2022, in hospital in Chuhuiv. Getty Images -
Fleeing refugees arrive at the border train station of Zahony, Hungary, in March 2022. Getty Images -
A father says goodbye to his daughter on an evacuation train about to leave Odesa in March 2022. AFP -
February 24 will be a year since Russia started the Ukraine war. The National picks out the most powerful images from the conflict. AFP -
Ukrainians under a destroyed bridge as they try to cross the Irpin river on the outskirts of Kyiv in March 2022. AP -
People cram into Kyiv station to catch trains to Poland or to western parts of Ukraine, shortly after the initial invasion in February 2022. Getty Images -
A demonstration in support of Ukraine in Trafalgar Square, London, February 2022 . Getty Images -
Russian army vehicles in Armyansk, Crimea, in February 2022. AFP -
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 25, 2022, in a video on Facebook. He said 'we are all here', shortly after the Russian invasion began. AFP -
A residential building damaged by a missile strike in Kyiv in February 2022. Getty Images -
A metro station in Kyiv in February 2022, crowded with people trying to escape the invasion. AFP -
A police officer addresses people gathered to protest against the invasion of Ukraine, in central Saint Petersburg, Russia, February 2022. AFP -
A protester in support of Ukraine, in Berlin, Germany, in February 2022. Getty Images -
Ukrainian soldiers prepare to repel an attack in Ukraine's Lugansk region on February 24, 2022. AFP -
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 24, 2022, after Russia launched a full-scale invasion. AFP -
A mass exodus from Kyiv after pre-offensive missile strikes by Russian armed forces on February 24, 2022. Getty Images -
Security personnel inspect the remains of a shell in Kyiv on February 24, 2022, soon after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine. AFP -
CCTV footage shows Russian military equipment crossing a Crimea border checkpoint on February 24, 2022. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin early on February 24, 2022, when he announced a 'military operation' in Ukraine. AFP
Amid internal squabbling and questions about Ukraine’s defences, Mr Zelenskyy last month replaced his top military commander, the popular Gen Valery Zaluzhny, which some say highlighted a disconnect in civil-military relations.
Russia, which has a major edge in population, was recently found to be tapping into an alternative troop source: thousands of South Asian men have reportedly accepted high-paying jobs in Russia and then, upon arrival, to their surprise, been sent to the frontlines. And despite the clear troop disadvantage and sagging morale, Ukrainians have been strongly critical of the government’s proposed conscription plan to draft up to half a million soldiers.
Now, all of this may have convinced one of Ukraine’s most committed regional allies that it’s time to wave the white flag. After meeting Mr Zelenskyy on Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared his country ready to host peace talks, citing the advantages of Ankara’s unique position.
Turkey has refrained from joining western sanctions on Russia, with which it has instead sharply boosted trade. It has maintained friendly ties with Moscow and already hosted two rounds of Russia-Ukraine talks: peace negotiations soon after the start of the war, which failed; and successful 2022 talks to establish a grain shipping corridor in the Black Sea.
Turkey has for months been working back channels to persuade Russia to release Ukrainian prisoners, for which Mr Zelenskyy thanked Mr Erdogan during his visit to Dolmabahce Palace along the Bosphorus. Yet with Ukraine’s fortunes at a low ebb, peace talks now would heavily favour Russia, which means Kyiv would much prefer to improve its military position first.
Turkey’s leadership is surely aware of this, so it is hard to know whether its offer was sincere or mainly a friendly nod to Moscow after approving an expansion of Nato. What is clear is that Ankara has little problem continuing to back Ukraine militarily: after gaining legendary status in the conflict’s early days, its top defence firm, Bayraktar, is currently building a drone factory outside Kyiv.
In Istanbul, Mr Zelenskyy met top defence officials and visited the shipyard where a Turkish firm is producing corvettes for Ukraine’s navy. “We have reached agreements on joint defence projects both at the government level and between companies,” he said on X.
Also on Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington to talk Russia-Ukraine, Black Sea security, Nato and more. Turkey-US ties have improved since January, when Ankara approved Sweden’s Nato bid.
Early this month, US ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake said Ankara had been more responsive to US requests to curb trade with Russia. Might this lead to closer bilateral co-operation in Ukraine, or for that matter in Syria or on Mr Biden’s ambitious new Gaza aid plan? Probably not, as the two still hold contrasting, if not opposing, policy positions.
But either way, Kyiv is in for the long haul. Ukraine’s innovative use of cheap drones, its Bayraktar factory and latest defence deals with Turkey, along with its citizens’ increasing commitment to crowd-funding military support, point towards a transition from prioritising procurement to self-reliance and domestic production with help from foreign firms.
This echoes Turkey’s defence development and is a wise defensive posture. But if Ukraine still aims to retake Russian-controlled territory, it will need more robust foreign support. How much can it expect in the coming months? And how deeply felt is western fatigue with Ukraine’s war effort? The messages have been mixed of late.
On the bright side, Ukraine looks set to add a major new asset to its arsenal by summer, American F-16 fighter jets. But on the weekend, Pope Francis urged Kyiv to "have the courage" to surrender, provoking sharp responses from Ukrainian officials.
The pontiff’s advice arrived just days after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to rule out the possibility of Nato troops on the ground in Ukraine. That seems unlikely, though Ukraine’s embattled leader still has a friend in the White House.
“There are no American soldiers at war in Ukraine and I’m determined to keep it that way,” Mr Biden said in his State of the Union. “But Ukraine can stop [Russian President Vladimir] Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons they need.”
Will the pleas of Mr Zelenskyy and his western allies be enough to spur redoubled military support this spring? Without it, 2024 could turn darker still for Ukraine.
