After seemingly endless delays on Turkey’s Sweden decision, the denouement came in a flash. Turkish parliament approved Sweden's Nato entry last Tuesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed off two days later and the next day, the US approved a $23 billion sale of F-16s to Turkey, as promised by President Joe Biden.
It’s not exactly the father killing the fattened calf to celebrate the return of his prodigal younger son, but it’s not that far off either. Turkey’s zig-zag foreign policy increasingly seems to be mainly zags: no country within the western orbit has in recent years taken so many questionable steps, from the US perspective, only to be welcomed back with open arms.
As Ankara delayed its approval for Sweden’s Nato membership for nearly two years, many argued that Turkey had imperiled European security and deserved to be removed from the alliance. Instead, Turkey has been trebly rewarded for its stonewalling: the US jets; Stockholm’s partial compliance on Kurds in Sweden; and Nato member Canada lifting a years-long embargo on defence exports to Turkey.
Nato is mainly a Russian-facing security bloc, yet Ankara and Moscow are on friendly terms and bilateral trade has boomed since early 2022. The Biden administration has openly indicated it is no fan of Ankara’s stifling of free expression or questionable interpretation of the rule of law. And as previously detailed, during the continuing Israel-Gaza war Turkey’s leaders have regularly and harshly criticised Israel and its ally, the US, leading to domestic boycotts and looting. There’s been no real pushback to any of this.
The day before he approved Sweden’s Nato entry, Mr Erdogan welcomed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Ankara to discuss Israel-Gaza and more. Keep in mind, Iran-backed groups have hit US positions in Syria and Iraq more than 150 times since October, probably including Sunday's drone attack on the Syrian-Jordan border that killed three US soldiers.
Iran is, of course, a primary backer of Hamas, which launched the horrifying assault that started the escalating regional conflict, and the Houthis, whose attacks have choked Red Sea shipping, prompting a barrage of retaliatory US and UK strikes in Yemen. Yet here’s the longtime leader of Nato ally Turkey shaking hands with Mr Raisi and talking of opening new borders with Iran, improving ties and boosting trade.
One starts to wonder what a Turk has to do to incur western ire. Ankara’s top foreign policy objective has long been clearing Kurdish militants, specifically the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliate Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), from its borders with Syria and Iraq.
No country within the western orbit has taken so many problematic steps only to be welcomed back with open arms
For nearly a decade, the main hurdle has been that the US, despite listing the PKK as a terrorist group, is partnered with the SDF in Syria while providing crucial support to Kurdish militants in Iraq. Turkey has launched several strikes on or near US positions in the past few years, and the only military response came last October when the US downed a Turkish drone it said had veered too close to American troops.
Last week, American and Iraqi officials began planning the withdrawal of the 2,500 US soldiers stationed in the country, a move that would boost Tehran’s already-considerable influence in Baghdad. Turkey and Iran both view Kurdish independence as a threat and a US exit from Iraq would enable them to co-ordinate containment policies.
Washington is reportedly also planning to start pulling its 900 troops out of Syria, which would be even better news for Turkey. Since mid-December, PKK attacks have killed more than 20 Turkish troops, prompting Ankara to launch a fresh campaign of domestic raids and air strikes on Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq. Mr Erdogan has repeatedly hinted at another Turkish incursion into Syria, his fourth.
You may recall the last time the US talked of pulling out of Syria – chaos ensued. In October 2019, former US president Donald Trump said during a phone call with Mr Erdogan that he would withdraw from Syria to allow for a Turkish incursion. After observers expressed shock at this betrayal of the Kurds, Mr Trump threatened to “obliterate” Turkey’s economy if Ankara did anything “off limits” in northern Syria.
Turkey began its military operation a few days later, Mr Trump delivered a slap on the wrist, levying minor sanctions, and US forces never actually pulled out. If the US does leave this time, expect Turkish troops to move in seeking to dismantle the Syrian Kurds’ autonomous zone. With all attention on the Levant, Ankara might have a free hand to clear Kurdish groups from areas along the border.
I’ll admit that Ankara has not gone completely unpunished. Turkish firms are under sanctions for providing key military goods to Russia and involvement in Hamas’s financial network. Unlike Qatar and Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has been left out of ongoing Israel-Hamas peace talks and hostage negotiations, despite its offer to mediate and its recent success brokering the Russia-Ukraine grain deal.
There’s also the distinct possibility that Israel is plotting to assassinate Hamas leaders in Turkey, which would be a sizable blow to its sovereignty. Finally, it is no accident that when the US State Department notified Congress of its approval of the F-16 sale to Turkey, it also approved the sale of F-35s to its neighbour and rival Greece.
Perhaps the harshest penalty Turkey has received from its western allies in recent years was in response to Ankara’s 2019 purchase of Russian missile defences: the US removed Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet programme, for which it had been providing hundreds of parts.
Because Ankara approved Sweden’s Nato entry shortly after the US threatened to go ahead with Greece’s F-35 sale while denying Turkey’s F-16s, some hailed Ankara’s approval as a US diplomatic win. But Turkey was always going to approve Sweden, it was just a matter of when. What’s more, Ankara initially requested the F-16s in response to being kicked out of the F-35 programme.
I’m not familiar with a disciplinary system in which the transgressor is owed a kindness to make up for their punishment. But Ankara seemed convinced its Nato ally was duty-bound to shore up the ageing Turkish air force after denying it the advanced fighter jets. Three years later, after mostly going against American wishes, Mr Erdogan has gotten his way yet again.
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
Super 30
Produced: Sajid Nadiadwala and Phantom Productions
Directed: Vikas Bahl
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Pankaj Tripathi, Aditya Srivastav, Mrinal Thakur
Rating: 3.5 /5
The five pillars of Islam
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Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
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At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
The Good Liar
Starring: Helen Mirren, Ian McKellen
Directed by: Bill Condon
Three out of five stars