Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
November 05, 2023
A “grand bargain” often results from a major event that altered the status quo.
Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel altered the status quo, in part because it exposed structural weaknesses in Israel’s military and intelligence establishment. Then, Israel’s retaliatory actions against Palestinians living in Gaza, in violation of international law, eroded some of the global goodwill towards the country and triggered protests and condemnations against its government.
If, indeed, there is a grand bargain to be had, neither Hamas nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to be a part of it. For both have effectively removed themselves from the broader equation, even though both are involved in “the event” that could precipitate the grand bargain.
Both have previously served each other’s interests since the rise of Hamas as a challenger to the Fatah movement and the Palestinian Authority. Today, both Mr Netanyahu and Hamas are weaker, and both are obstacles to achieving a lasting peace.
Of course, during this transitional phase, they are both necessary to complete a prisoner and hostage exchange deal. Therefore, they will be able to buy time until further notice.
A necessary distinction worth pointing out is that, while the Israeli public will decide Mr Netanyahu’s fate, the Palestinian people will not be the ones deciding Hamas’s future. That will probably be in the hands of the Iranian regime, which has made some gains following the October 7 attack.
Hamas and Hezbollah, which also relies on Tehran’s support, and are now figuring out how to sustain their old positions in the new Iranian context. In other words, both realise that the Iranian regime could be a party to behind-the-scenes talks, primarily with the US and with the regional powers, with a view to establish a new security system in which it has a voice.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers his first address since the start of the Israel-Gaza war on October 7, from an unspecified location in Lebanon. Reuters
Hezbollah supporters at a rally in southern Beirut, ahead of Mr Nasrallah's speech. AFP
Supporters of Iraqi Shiite armed groups gather in Baghdad's Tahrir Square to watch the speech by Mr Nasrallah. Reuters
Hezbollah supporters in southern Beirut. Mr Nasrallah's address was eagerly awaited by followers. EPA
In his address, Mr Nasrallah said the conflict in Gaza was ‘a crucial and fateful war’. Reuters
A woman holds up an image of Mr Nasrallah at a pro-Hezbollah rally in southern Beirut. AFP
Hezbollah supporters attend a ceremony in Beirut to honour fighters killed in recent exchanges with Israeli forces on the Israel-Lebanon border. Reuters
Hezbollah supporters hold up pictures of Mr Nasrallah in Beirut, ahead of his address. EPA
Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah has navigated between war and warnings, making it seem as if he holds the initiative
Iran does not want to dispense with either group despite a backlash against them in recent weeks. Hezbollah and Hamas appear to be contemplating how to renew their own futures, in order to keep themselves viable in a possibly emerging regional-strategic situation, within the context of the grand bargain.
Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah has navigated between war and warnings, making it seem as if he holds the initiative. In exchanging fire with Israel, the group has violated the sovereignty of the Lebanese state, undermined the security of its citizens, and put itself at the mercy of Nasrallah’s agenda.
Worse still, Hezbollah opened the Lebanese-Israeli border to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian armed factions in the name of unifying the Axis of Resistance, violating – again – Lebanon’s sovereignty but also the will of the people, who refuse to be dragged into the “resistance” war.
If Nasrallah is seeking to revitalise his group in light of Iran’s move towards a new regional security system that safeguards its interests, perhaps now is the time to present the group as a Lebanese political entity first and foremost. The context for regional peace has no space for an armed entity that serves Tehran’s interests.
In other words, it is time for Hezbollah to reconsider its position.
This is the time for Hezbollah’s leadership to listen to the Lebanese people, who reject the idea of hosting Hamas leaders in the country, especially as the Palestinian refugee camps have turned into armed camps.
Israel is negotiating with Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and other countries regarding hosting Hamas leaders, whose continued presence in Gaza is now rejected by Israel. It’s worth pointing out that these are sovereign states that decide the presence of Hamas leaders inside their territories. As for Lebanon, it lacks state sovereignty, and Hezbollah seems to be the one determining the boundaries of sovereignty and the presence of Palestinian leaders and armed factions in the country.
Hamas, meanwhile, has chosen the path to save itself through concessions over the path of self-destruction. Before Nasrallah’s speech on Friday, Hamas appeared to move towards some sort of compromise.
It informed intermediaries that it is ready to agree to Israel releasing half of the prisoners in exchange for the hostages it is holding. In return, it requested a ceasefire, and for Israel to halt its military operation against the movement, which has been successful despite its high human cost.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Tel Aviv last week. AP
The timing of Hamas’s efforts to save itself by showing flexibility sends a signal to Hezbollah to tone down its own rhetoric. It appears Nasrallah did just that in his speech over the weekend.
And as Iran tries to secure its place at the table for restructuring the Middle East, both in terms of security and politics, it seems to acknowledge that there is no place for Hezbollah or Hamas in major negotiations for permanent solutions.
During his trip to the region, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken focused on putting in place transitional arrangements, particularly relating to the release of hostages, and sought to restrain Israel from destroying the civilian infrastructure in Gaza.
But he also aimed to envision the post-Israel-Gaza war scenario. Who will govern the enclave in the absence of Hamas? Is it possible to place it under temporary international-Arab administration until a clear roadmap for a lasting peace emerges?
Hamas has been as much of an obstacle to the two-state solution as Israel has been. But if the Biden administration succeeds in pushing post-Netanyahu and post-October 7 Israel to finally accept the case for it, the latter might be able to pave the way for a historic breakthrough in the Middle East and achieve a lasting peace with most Arab countries.
Moreover, Iran might surprise everyone by participating in the grand bargain that secures its interests in exchange for renouncing its commitment to destroying Israel.
All of this might seem premature right now, and developments – whether intentional or unintentional – could shatter any notion of a lasting peace. However, practical indicators and political pressures suggest that Arab countries involved in normalising relations with Israel are willing to assist the Biden administration in finding the necessary formula for such a peace.
Iran might not be too far from the dynamics of a grand bargain. It all depends on America’s determination to convince Israel that the time has indeed come to choose a lasting peace. Not doing so could make the threat of more attacks of the kind the world saw on October 7 even greater.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
Zimbabwe v UAE, ODI series
All matches at the Harare Sports Club:
1st ODI, Wednesday, April 10
2nd ODI, Friday, April 12
3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14
4th ODI, Tuesday, April 16
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
1 Joost Luiten produced a memorable hole in one at the par-three fourth in the first round.
2 To date, the only two players to win the PGA Championship after winning the week before are Rory McIlroy (2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational) and Tiger Woods (2007, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational). Hideki Matsuyama or Chris Stroud could have made it three.
3 Number of seasons without a major for McIlroy, who finished in a tie for 22nd.
4 Louis Oosthuizen has now finished second in all four of the game's major championships.
5 In the fifth hole of the final round, McIlroy holed his longest putt of the week - from 16ft 8in - for birdie.
6 For the sixth successive year, play was disrupted by bad weather with a delay of one hour and 43 minutes on Friday.
7 Seven under par (64) was the best round of the week, shot by Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari on Day 2.
8 Number of shots taken by Jason Day on the 18th hole in round three after a risky recovery shot backfired.
9 Jon Rahm's age in months the last time Phil Mickelson missed the cut in the US PGA, in 1995.
10 Jimmy Walker's opening round as defending champion was a 10-over-par 81.
11 The par-four 11th coincidentally ranked as the 11th hardest hole overall with a scoring average of 4.192.
12 Paul Casey was a combined 12 under par for his first round in this year's majors.
13 The average world ranking of the last 13 PGA winners before this week was 25. Kevin Kisner began the week ranked 25th.
14 The world ranking of Justin Thomas before his victory.
15 Of the top 15 players after 54 holes, only Oosthuizen had previously won a major.
16 The par-four 16th marks the start of Quail Hollow's so-called "Green Mile" of finishing holes, some of the toughest in golf.
17 The first round scoring average of the last 17 major champions was 67.2. Kisner and Thorbjorn Olesen shot 67 on day one at Quail Hollow.
18 For the first time in 18 majors, the eventual winner was over par after round one (Thomas shot 73).
Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo Power: 235hp Torque: 350Nm Transmission: Nine-speed automatic Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000) On sale: Now
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders, with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However, most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate change to health and food security.
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
