Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
October 01, 2023
Russia appears to be renewing its support to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whose forces control eastern Libya, as the military leader looks to take over the entire country.
Field Marshal Haftar, who backs the Tobruk administration that rivals the government in Tripoli, was in Moscow in the week gone by, where he held meetings over several days. This followed a visit by Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov to Benghazi some weeks earlier.
Meanwhile, the US is said to be taking an interest in Libya, as its co-operation with Field Marshal Haftar grows. According to a report by The Intercept, a meeting took place between the commander of the US Africa Command, Gen Michael Langley, and Field Marshal Haftar in the preceding week.
However, the convergent American and Russian interests in the military leader are not at the same level, as the Biden administration is preoccupied with other priorities in the Mena region. By contrast, Russia sees, after the coup in Niger, an opportunity to restore its political relevance in Africa as discontent with the West grows on the continent.
Yet the top Russian priority remains strengthening relations with China against the West. Preparations are under way for a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing from October 26-29.
The convergent American and Russian interests are not at the same level
China does not recognise the territories annexed by Russia in Ukraine as Russian, and wants both countries to demonstrate flexibility by withdrawing their conditions for entering into talks to end the conflict. What China wants is a "clean slate" on which it can play the role of a technical mediator rather than a political mediator. But Russia is not ready to withdraw its conditions, and neither is Ukraine.
This will leave a mark on the Beijing summit for the leadership in Moscow, which seeks to explore fully the prospects of a Sino-Russian partnership. China, on the other hand, believes that prolonging the Ukraine conflict will be harmful to Russia and intensify American efforts to build alliances, not only against Moscow but also against Beijing, through the US-Japan-South Korea triad and increased communication and co-ordination between Nato and Japan.
The Niger coup has left western powers and some African countries deeply concerned, but it may have rejuvenated Russian interest in Libya. If so, this is noteworthy.
The meetings with Field Marshal Haftar signal Russia's decision to reassert its influence in Africa and thereby send a message to the West that isolating it is merely a fantasy. The resource-rich continent could also serve as a means for Russia to escape from Nato's clutches in the Ukraine conflict, both economically and politically.
The web of international entanglements in Libya may have convinced Moscow that other powers, including Turkey, as well as key Arab and European powers, would not intervene against its support for Field Marshal Haftar. Indeed, Europe supports anything that prevents a major migration wave from the Libyan coast to the continent.
The Russians appear to believe that the US will not seek major influence in Libya at this point, particularly given American public sensitivities due to US failures there, as well as a perceived lack of trust in Libyan authorities. Therefore, the Kremlin believes that the Biden administration will not strongly oppose Russia supporting Field Marshal Haftar's takeover bid.
This could explain, at least partly, the reported meeting between US military leaders and Field Marshal Haftar - perhaps also to remind him to not put all his eggs in the Russian basket. While the Biden administration may overlook Russian investments in Libya, it will seek to keep a check on Moscow's agendas in Africa as a whole.
The horizons opened up by the coup in Niger have also motivated other powers beyond Russia to attempt to fill the void left by France and the West in parts of Africa, including key players in the Mena region. Economic reasons would certainly be a driving force for engagement, given the investment opportunities in some of the resource-rich countries, but geopolitical considerations are equally important.
Africa is going through an extremely important phase and is at a historical turning point. There is much more interest in the continent, with each of the players from around the world seeking to take advantage of the favourable opportunities available.
It is to be seen if the leaders of these African countries will contribute to shaping a prosperous future for their peoples, or whether they will fall into the spiral of political upheaval and military coups that have riddled the continent's decades-long post-colonial history.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
Why seagrass matters
Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton
Rating: 4/5
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
Stars: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford
Four stars
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
