Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hold a news conference in Riyadh on Thursday. EPA
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hold a news conference in Riyadh on Thursday. EPA
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hold a news conference in Riyadh on Thursday. EPA
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
August 20, 2023
A pivotal shift has materialised in Iranian foreign policy, suggesting a profound transformation is under way in Tehran’s grand strategy towards relations with Arab Gulf countries.
For its part, the Biden administration has made a notable about-face, abandoning the policy of past US administrations to exclude the Gulf states from US-Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Washington now welcomes Saudi-Iran rapprochement as it aligns with American interests. It views this improvement in relations as an opportunity to establish an additional communication channel with Tehran, with a view to nudge Iran away from Russia in the aftermath of the Ukrainian conflict.
However, the primary obstacle to any hopes of seeing a new Iran lies in the contradiction between the established dogma of its regime and its transitional pragmatism.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian articulated a compelling sentiment during his recent visit to Riyadh, which aimed at restoring diplomatic ties and paving the way for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s trip to the Saudi capital soon. He said that Iran can collaborate with Saudi Arabia to promptly resolve regional issues, underscoring Tehran’s support for achieving security and harmony in the region without fragmentation.
These words await to be matched by deeds, nonetheless a few questions arise.
Where does Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stand on rapprochement? What are the conditions demanded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which exercises control over Iranian foreign policy? How does Israel factor into the equation? Will exclusive sway over Lebanon be granted to Hezbollah as compensation for suspending its regional activities?
US and Saudi tanks take part in the 'Eager Lion' multinational military manoeuvre in Al Zarqa governorate, Jordan last year. AFP
The Biden administration’s priority is to capitalise on Iran’s willingness to shift its stance and behaviour in the Gulf and towards the US
Such complex issues appear to have been parked aside for now, as Riyadh and Tehran focus on bilateral issues, as well as Gulf security, in their “first basket” of discussions, while putting Hezbollah’s regional roles into the “second basket”. This approach is due to concerns that bringing Hezbollah’s activities to the negotiation table could jeopardise the talks.
However, the issue with such an approach is that it implies a potential willingness to grant Iran exceptions in the region. The reality on the ground, after all, indicates that regional stability cannot be achieved without addressing Iran’s regional activities.
Nonetheless, it seems that the Biden administration doesn’t oppose focusing on the “first basket”. It is open to postponing discussions around the thorny issues, including Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanon, if there is an implicit understanding that there will be no military confrontation between the Iranian proxy and Israel – regardless of the public posturing seen on both sides.
The Biden administration’s priority is to capitalise on Iran’s willingness to shift its stance and behaviour in the Gulf and towards the US. It will also hope it can play a role in countering Russian influence in the region. If Tehran is willing to accept American goodwill, Washington may be prepared to offer incentives similar to the deal that saw the release of American detainees and prisoners in exchange for the release of $6 billion of Iranian assets held in South Korea.
Iran fully comprehends that it needs American help if it wants to return to the global markets and develop its oil and technological infrastructure, as well as restore normality. Moscow has limitations in how much support it can extend to Iran due to the war in Ukraine. China, meanwhile, does not impose on Iran the decision to align either with itself or with the US, nor is the Biden administration doing so.
Of course, the Iranian regime isn’t compromising on its ideology. It is, instead, introducing modifications to it and adopting a more tempered approach to accommodate new realities. This strategy is designed to sustain itself.
Tehran aspires for regional respect and the restoration of its prestige.
On the other hand, Hezbollah is determined to strengthen its grip over Lebanon. Up to this point, it has enjoyed substantial backing from influential members within the Iranian regime.
Some experts, particularly in the Arab world, expect an eventual power struggle in Tehran to lead to a reduction in the IRGC’s influence. Consequently, they believe, Hezbollah will become weaker and, therefore, be willing to align with Iran’s place in the world and assume a more proportionate role regionally and within Lebanon.
While this outcome may sound logical, it remains a mere possibility rather than reflecting an established policy. Herein lies the inherent danger and potential miscalculation.
One could argue that the problem in Lebanon lies within its political class and opportunistic alliances among various political parties. Similarly, one could argue that Lebanon’s economic decline is chiefly the responsibility of the government, parties, representatives, and people. However, these facts don’t invalidate the observation that regional stability will remain elusive as long as Hezbollah maintains its dominance in Lebanon (even as it scales back its regional activities).
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that the restoration of his country’s diplomatic ties with Iran was a pivotal juncture for regional security. This is undeniably valid. He further underscored Saudi Arabia’s aspiration to bolster bilateral relations with Tehran, expressing a sincere and earnest desire to cultivate mutual trust. This stance is also on the mark, given that regional security forms an integral facet of bilateral relations.
Nevertheless, this phase has yet to reach the stage of complete trust; rather, it represents a probation period based on good intentions, extending beyond mere bilateral dynamics.
Other GCC countries are also working towards improving relations with Iran. Some are playing a role in achieving closer ties between Washington and Tehran, including on matters related to Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and the gradual removal of US sanctions on Iran, as an alternative to a comprehensive nuclear deal. This comprehensive deal had previously excluded the Gulf countries, due to decisions made by Iran, the US and Europe, with the agreement of China and Russia.
Times have changed, and historical circumstances have led to an unforeseen shift due to the war in Ukraine and Nato’s subsequent expansion both within and beyond Europe. The Biden administration is aiming to increase Russian isolation by attempting to separate Tehran from Moscow.
That said, the ongoing US-Iran agreements include elements of a more comprehensive deal that goes beyond the mere reduction of tensions between Washington and Tehran. If it materialises, this strategic deal will be akin to a “Grand Bargain”. As is said, however, the devil is in the details.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors.
Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991.
Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.
In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
