The Russia-Africa summit held in Saint Petersburg on Thursday has served as a morale-booster for Moscow. The Kremlin gathered heads of state and officials representing several African countries in the second edition of the summit focused on bolstering Russia’s bilateral relations with the continent. However, the summit’s impact on the strategic balance of power will be limited, considering the global turmoil caused by the war in Ukraine has left the international order lost without direction.
One of the main concerns for the African leaders is Moscow’s bid to bypass western sanctions and western presence in Africa, given the American and European determination to crack down on any circumvention of their measures.
During the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to provide free grain shipments in the coming months to six nations: Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, Mali, Somalia and Zimbabwe. This move comes amid African concerns over Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a move Moscow attributed to western policies, as it accused the West of hindering the deal despite Russia’s commitment to it. The fact, however, is that it is Russia that refused to extend the agreement, which was sponsored by Turkey, triggering concerns of a global food crisis that would primarily affect Africa following the cessation of grain exports from Ukraine.
Moscow’s pitch at the summit did not include measures to protect African countries from sanctions imposed on Russia. Indeed, it is unable to provide such guarantees, given that the West would pursue and punish anyone who deals with Russia.
On Thursday, Mr Putin said: “Russia was one of the first countries to respond positively to the initiative to grant the African Union full membership in the G20. We expect this decision to be taken as early as September during the G20 summit in New Delhi.” The question, however, is whether the African Union’s membership will hold significance in the G20, due to the western alliance’s growing strength in recent months.
The tools with which the Russian government can exert influence in Africa are limited, too.
Some western governments have alleged that the private Wagner Group has played a crucial role in certain African countries on behalf of Moscow. If this is indeed the case, it is hard to say how much influence the militia will continue to wield following its mutinous advance towards Moscow in June.
Last week’s coup against Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, who has been largely aligned with the West, will be followed with keen interest by all the stakeholders. This is particularly the case as the Sahel has for years been subjected to competition between Russia and the West. Niger, it is important to point out, is rich in uranium and, therefore, important for the French nuclear industry. Following the coup, the EU and France cut off financial support to the country, with the US threatening to do the same.
Moscow seeks to showcase to the world that its “special military operation” in Ukraine has not diminished its global standing. However, the reality of the war has forced it to reduce its global military and economic presence elsewhere.
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As the war in Ukraine approaches the 500-day mark, 'The National' looks back at the conflict. All photos: AP -
Ukrainian soldiers cover their ears to protect from Russian tank shelling in a shelter on the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region in July -
A cemetery in evening sunlight near Lviv in July -
Flooded streets in Kherson in June after the walls of the Kakhovka dam collapsed -
Tetiana with her pets, Tsatsa and Chunya, in her house that was flooded when the Kakhovka dam in Kherson was breached -
Young cadets sing the national anthem during a graduation ceremony at a cadet lyceum in Kyiv in June -
Bakhmut in April, the site of the heaviest battles in the Donetsk region -
A message on a mirror reads 'Ukraine will prevail' in a badly damaged school in Kharkiv in February -
Ukrainian servicemen in position close to the border with Belarus in February -
Hospital staff in Kherson with orphaned children at the regional hospital maternity ward in November 2022 -
A sniper unit aims at Russian positions in the Kherson region during an operation in November 2022 -
Ukrainian artillerymen fire at Russian positions near Bakhmut in November 2022 -
A Ukrainian serviceman near Oskil village in October 2022 -
Funeral workers carry the coffin of an unidentified civilian who died in the Bucha community during the Russian occupation period in February-March 2022 -
Cadets practise with gas masks in a bomb shelter on the first day of school at a cadet lyceum in Kyiv, Ukraine, in September -
A young girl with her dog waves goodbye to her grandparents from an evacuation train leaving Pokrovsk in August 2022 -
A child looks up at a building destroyed during attacks in Irpin in May 2022 -
An elderly patient boards a medical evacuation train in Pokrovsk in May 2022 -
Nila Zelinska holds a doll belonging to her granddaughter that she found in her destroyed house in Potashnya, on the outskirts of Kyiv, in May 2022 -
Residents shelter in the city subway of Kharkiv in May 2022 -
Destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, April 2022 -
A family fleeing the village of Ruska Lozova in April 2022 arrive in their shrapnel-riddled car at a screening point in Kharkiv -
Smoke fills the air after shelling in Odesa in April -
Yehor, 7, with a wooden toy rifle next to destroyed Russian military vehicles near Chernihiv in April 2022 -
Security Service of Ukraine servicemen enter a building during an operation to arrest suspected Russian collaborators in Kharkiv in April 2022 -
A Ukrainian soldier during a pick-up game of football in Irpin in April 2022 -
The partially abandoned town of Chernobyl in April 2022 -
Ruslan Mishanin, 36, bids farewell to his nine-year-old daughter as the train with his family leaves Odesa for Poland in April -
Halyna Falko, 52, talks to reporters in March 2022 while looking at the destruction caused to her house near Brovary after a Russian attack -
Anti-tank barricades on a street in preparation for a possible Russian offensive in Odesa in March 2022 -
A man recovering items from a burning shop after a Russian attack in Kharkiv in March 2022 -
Ukrainians under a destroyed bridge as they as they cross the Irpin river on the outskirts of Kyiv in March 2022
In Syria, for example, Moscow’s overt role to keep the Assad regime in power has waned. Iran, Damascus’s other ally, is meanwhile putting its “soft diplomacy” to the test after its recent Chinese-brokered rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.
The US’s military build-up in Syria worries Russia. The risk of an aerial clash between American and Russian aircraft and drones is present but not imminent, as both parties are determined to avoid direct confrontation. However, they are also determined to assert their presence in Syrian airspace and on its territory, and the shoring up of American military presence in the country has led Moscow to consider the drawbacks of reducing its military footprint there.
Russian diplomacy is now attempting to reassert itself, as it feels the need to rally sympathetic voices in forums such as the UN. That is why the Russia-Africa summit is important for its government, not only because it was held on Russian soil but also because it sets the stage for the upcoming UN General Assembly in September.
Russia’s promises to its partners in Africa and elsewhere are sincere, but they are likely to collide with a bitter reality – that today, it is unable to provide expansive aid, weaponry and finances to its friends, as it once could, due to western sanctions.
While free grain shipments may provide temporary relief (if they are delivered within the coming months), the repercussions of exiting the Black Sea Grain Initiative, as well as the consequences of the Ukraine conflict, are far more significant than any short-term remedies.
