Former US president Donald Trump still looms large enough that two national US calendars, which in the past have always run in parallel, seem set to collide as his gravitational pull slams them together. He faces a mounting set of legal and criminal reckonings and it's almost impossible that all will be postponed. Many are set to intersect with the schedule of political primaries, party conventions and even the next presidential election.
Since Mr Trump faced his first criminal indictment in Manhattan in March on campaign finance and business records and tax falsification charges, he has appeared subdued and chastened in the dock. Unlike the civil defamation lawsuit, based on a sexual assault that a jury determined he indeed committed against writer E Jean Carroll, he won't have the option of not attending these criminal trials.
Last week, a Trump-appointed Federal District Judge in southern Florida, Aileen Cannon, rebuffed his request for an indefinite postponement of his trial on 37 felony counts related to the alleged purloining, mishandling, concealing and unauthorised exposure of numerous highly sensitive government documents. Instead, she scheduled the trial for May 20, 2024.
While many complications may create delays, including the difficulty of getting attorneys cleared to review classified materials and finding a qualified jury, the Southern District of Florida is noted for its “rocket docket”, and may prove unsympathetic to his favourite legal tactic of endless delays.
In the last quarter of fundraising, most of Mr Trump's donation dollars went not to his presidential campaign, but into paying his mounting legal bills
Meanwhile, a judge in New York City has scheduled March 25 for Mr Trump's state-level charges. As with the federal-level Florida case, he will be required to attend, while presumably his Republican rivals will be campaigning, fund-raising and debating.
By then the former president will already be embroiled in a second civil lawsuit brought by Ms Carroll on the same essential facts because he inexplicably repeated his accusations that she was lying about their alleged encounter after she won a resounding jury verdict last year. Shortly after, Mr Trump took to CNN to repeat his denials, claims that he didn't know who she is (despite numerous photographs showing them together), and implications that she is unbalanced.
Interest in round two, which will surely result in yet another judgment against him, has been stoked by a stunning recent ruling by federal District Court Judge Lewis Kaplan. It held that, while the civil court jury ruled in favour of Ms Carroll on sexual assault and not rape charges under the exact meaning of the terms under New York State law, nonetheless their findings of fact establish that Mr Trump had indeed “raped” her “as many people commonly understand the word ‘rape’” .
It will not help Mr Trump in any elections whatsoever, even Republican primaries, that a federal judge has ruled it is legally accurate to describe him as an established rapist under the commonly understood meaning of the term. All of that is likely to be reinforced and disseminated by a disastrous second lawsuit he could have avoided by simply restraining his impulse to lash out at her again despite what had just happened in a court of law.
Criminal courts are almost certainly Mr Trump's least preferred environment since few of his standard tactics work well there. Indeed, many of his closest legal associates now face disbarment precisely because they followed his preferred stratagems in legal proceedings, where such shenanigans are not well tolerated outside the white-collar civil proceedings that he has been used to.
Even then, New York State isn't through with its least-favourite son.
New York's attorney general, Letitia James, is suing Mr Trump, much of his family, and their private company on civil charges of systematically misrepresenting their assets by overvaluing them to investors and undervaluing them for tax purposes. Her ultimate goal is to not merely regain assets but to bar Mr Trump and his two older sons, Donald Jr and Eric, from ever running any businesses in the state again. That civil trial is scheduled to begin this October.
Arching over it all is special prosecutor Jack Smith's apparent upcoming additional federal charges related to the January 6, 2021 insurrection and Mr Trump's broader failed coup effort following President Joe Biden's electoral victory in November 2020. Mr Trump recently received a so-called target letter from the Justice Department, reportedly advising him that he may well face charges of conspiracy to defraud the US, obstruction of an official proceeding, and, to the surprise of many, conspiracy to defraud people of their constitutional rights. There is little doubt another federal indictment will follow soon enough.
This, logically, seems to focus on the more sinister underlying efforts to overturn the election results – such as the plot to promote “fake electors” from Republican-controlled states that would secure victory for Mr Trump over Mr Biden despite the election outcome – than just the more dramatic mayhem of January 6.
Mr Trump also seems likely to face charges in Georgia on related state-level crimes, given that he was recorded pressuring senior officials to “find” exactly the number of non-existent votes he needed to defeat Mr Biden there.
These charges are merely looming, so there is no indication yet when expected additional trials might begin. But the first Republican primary debate is scheduled for August 23, kicking off the nomination campaign. Republican primary voting begins with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in January 2024 and culminates in March. The Republican National Convention will be in Milwaukee from July 15-18, potentially right in the middle of the current front-runner’s varying criminal trials and other legal woes.
Only if he survives all that comes with his potential rematch with Mr Biden. Suffice it to say, the developing calendar smashing together Mr Trump's political ambitions and legal exposure doesn't seem like the optimal context for victory.
As the legal schedule now stands, his criminal trial in Florida may begin mere days after the end of the one in New York. It's already taking its toll.
In the last quarter of fund-raising, most of Mr Trump's donation dollars went not to his presidential campaign, as most donors no doubt expected, but to an affiliated “political action committee” that serves mainly to steer funds into paying his mounting legal bills.
Mr Trump's rapidly filling, unavoidable criminal trial agenda could well hammer his presidential ambitions with a continuously running, self-authored anti-Trump TV ad campaign that will most likely only get more damaging as the 2024 presidential election approaches.
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
New schools in Dubai
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Cherry
Directed by: Joe and Anthony Russo
Starring: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo
1/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
FIXTURES
Fixtures for Round 15 (all times UAE)
Friday
Inter Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Saturday
Atalanta v Verona (6pm)
Udinese v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Juventus (11.45pm)
Sunday
Lecce v Genoa (3.30pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (6pm)
SPAL v Brescia (6pm)
Torino v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sampdoria v Parma (9pm)
Bologna v AC Milan (11.45pm)
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
