Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is a UAE-based retired professor of political science. He is currently a non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University
July 06, 2023
There is light at the end of the tunnel in the Middle East. The region is slowly moving away from the geopolitical confrontations that dominated its landscape for decades to a promising new era of geoeconomic co-operation. However, a return to new era of chaos cannot be completely ruled out.
This perpetually tense region is finally leaving behind the “bad C” – confrontation – for a “good C” that stands for conversation and co-operation. The regional powers – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the UAE, among others – are suddenly engaged in serious and productive dialogue the likes of which the region has not seen in recent years.
For the past decade or so, confrontation, chaos, civil war, cold war, as well as jockeying for power and domination was the order of the day throughout the Middle East and North Africa. But regional antagonists and political rivals are now reaching out to each other, seeking de-escalation.
Detente is the new buzz world in the Mena region, raising hopes of a possible decade of stability and prosperity. Arab Gulf states are opening to regional rival Iran, a precarious ceasefire is holding up in Yemen, the 12-year civil war in Syria is in its final stage and Libya is on a tentative course to political reconciliation. These developments are ushering in a badly needed period of normality in an otherwise insecure part of the world.
Regional antagonists and political rivals are now reaching out to each other
This new move from confrontation to conversation in the Gulf and throughout the wider Middle East stands in sharp contrast to what is happening elsewhere. Europe, for instance, is dealing with several security issues, ranging from the war in Ukraine, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and rising tensions in the Balkans.
Asia, too, is experiencing growing geopolitical tensions around Taiwan, the Korean peninsula and the many island disputes in the South China Sea. Compared to all of this, the Middle East seems unusually calm.
Similarly, the Middle East is vastly better off compared to Africa, which has seen civil wars drag on in Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Mali, to name but a few hotspots in a continent where there are more than a dozen active armed conflicts. In 2022, Africa and Europe each suffered more fatalities from political violence than the Middle East, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled).
Indeed, the Middle East seems to be moving away from being a red zone full of conflicts to a blue zone where neighbouring states want to build bridges and live in peace.
Much of the momentum towards the good C of “conversation” comes from the six Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have recently taken the lead in shaping peace and stability in the region by working for consensus and promoting good neighbourliness.
The UAE went to engage with Iran directly in the latter’s own capital. It also reached out to Ankara, taking everyone by surprise. It was the Emirates, moreover, that was daring enough to engage with Syria before anybody else. The UAE was first to disengage from the war in Yemen, too, and swiftly normalised relations with Israel when it signed the Abraham Accords.
For the first time in decades, Middle East capitals are taking responsibility for their own journey. They are in the driver’s seat, taking matters into their own hands. A regional, not global, agenda is responsible for the drift away from confrontation. The Arab League summit in Jeddah two months ago has accelerated this positive regional dynamism.
But how sustainable is this trend from geopolitics to geoeconomics, and from a red-zone Middle East to a blue-zone one?
The momentum is very encouraging, but its sustainability is very difficult to predict. As the budding forces of co-operation and conversation take hold, there are numerous potential forces of chaos waiting to be activated. Spoilers are all over the place, and at least three of them are worth mentioning. They represent the ugly forces of chaos.
Israel, feeling isolated, tops the list. (This week’s events in Jenin are a worrying sign.) An Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear sites, for instance, would severely derail the current positive momentum towards de-escalation. Radical and revolutionary forces in Iran, meanwhile, have the power to undermine regional rapprochement. And a possible Donald Trump comeback in 2024 could easily freeze the region’s drift into calm. Each one of these three spoilers can change the good C of “co-operation” not only into the bad C of “conflict” but the ugly C of “chaos”.
When we look underneath the current of progress, we can see that on some level that things remain precarious. On top of Sudan already being on fire, peace in Yemen is still fragile. The political track in Libya is, too. And the chances of another round of civil war in Syria cannot be discounted. The seemingly calm Middle East is just one inch away from falling back into the dark tunnel of perpetual tension.
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah 5.10pm: Continous 5.45pm: Raging Torrent 6.20pm: West Acre 7pm: Flood Zone 7.40pm: Straight No Chaser 8.15pm: Romantic Warrior 8.50pm: Calandogan 9.30pm: Forever Young
Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 0
Liverpool 2 (Mane 50', 54')
Red card: Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)
Man of the match: Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
One in four Americans don't plan to retire
Nearly a quarter of Americans say they never plan to retire, according to a poll that suggests a disconnection between individuals' retirement plans and the realities of ageing in the workforce.
Experts say illness, injury, layoffs and caregiving responsibilities often force older workers to leave their jobs sooner than they'd like.
According to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, 23 per cent of workers, including nearly two in 10 of those over 50, don't expect to stop working. Roughly another quarter of Americans say they will continue working beyond their 65th birthday.
According to government data, about one in five people 65 and older was working or actively looking for a job in June. The study surveyed 1,423 adults in February this year.
For many, money has a lot to do with the decision to keep working.
"The average retirement age that we see in the data has gone up a little bit, but it hasn't gone up that much," says Anqi Chen, assistant director of savings research at the Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College. "So people have to live in retirement much longer, and they may not have enough assets to support themselves in retirement."
When asked how financially comfortable they feel about retirement, 14 per cent of Americans under the age of 50 and 29 per cent over 50 say they feel extremely or very prepared, according to the poll. About another four in 10 older adults say they do feel somewhat prepared, while just about one-third feel unprepared.
"One of the things about thinking about never retiring is that you didn't save a whole lot of money," says Ronni Bennett, 78, who was pushed out of her job as a New York City-based website editor at 63.
She searched for work in the immediate aftermath of her layoff, a process she describes as akin to "banging my head against a wall." Finding Manhattan too expensive without a steady stream of income, she eventually moved to Portland, Maine. A few years later, she moved again, to Lake Oswego, Oregon. "Sometimes I fantasise that if I win the lottery, I'd go back to New York," says Ms Bennett.
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11 What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time. TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
