Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is a UAE-based retired professor of political science. He is currently a non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University
July 06, 2023
There is light at the end of the tunnel in the Middle East. The region is slowly moving away from the geopolitical confrontations that dominated its landscape for decades to a promising new era of geoeconomic co-operation. However, a return to new era of chaos cannot be completely ruled out.
This perpetually tense region is finally leaving behind the “bad C” – confrontation – for a “good C” that stands for conversation and co-operation. The regional powers – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the UAE, among others – are suddenly engaged in serious and productive dialogue the likes of which the region has not seen in recent years.
For the past decade or so, confrontation, chaos, civil war, cold war, as well as jockeying for power and domination was the order of the day throughout the Middle East and North Africa. But regional antagonists and political rivals are now reaching out to each other, seeking de-escalation.
Detente is the new buzz world in the Mena region, raising hopes of a possible decade of stability and prosperity. Arab Gulf states are opening to regional rival Iran, a precarious ceasefire is holding up in Yemen, the 12-year civil war in Syria is in its final stage and Libya is on a tentative course to political reconciliation. These developments are ushering in a badly needed period of normality in an otherwise insecure part of the world.
Regional antagonists and political rivals are now reaching out to each other
This new move from confrontation to conversation in the Gulf and throughout the wider Middle East stands in sharp contrast to what is happening elsewhere. Europe, for instance, is dealing with several security issues, ranging from the war in Ukraine, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and rising tensions in the Balkans.
Asia, too, is experiencing growing geopolitical tensions around Taiwan, the Korean peninsula and the many island disputes in the South China Sea. Compared to all of this, the Middle East seems unusually calm.
Similarly, the Middle East is vastly better off compared to Africa, which has seen civil wars drag on in Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Mali, to name but a few hotspots in a continent where there are more than a dozen active armed conflicts. In 2022, Africa and Europe each suffered more fatalities from political violence than the Middle East, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled).
Indeed, the Middle East seems to be moving away from being a red zone full of conflicts to a blue zone where neighbouring states want to build bridges and live in peace.
Much of the momentum towards the good C of “conversation” comes from the six Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have recently taken the lead in shaping peace and stability in the region by working for consensus and promoting good neighbourliness.
The UAE went to engage with Iran directly in the latter’s own capital. It also reached out to Ankara, taking everyone by surprise. It was the Emirates, moreover, that was daring enough to engage with Syria before anybody else. The UAE was first to disengage from the war in Yemen, too, and swiftly normalised relations with Israel when it signed the Abraham Accords.
For the first time in decades, Middle East capitals are taking responsibility for their own journey. They are in the driver’s seat, taking matters into their own hands. A regional, not global, agenda is responsible for the drift away from confrontation. The Arab League summit in Jeddah two months ago has accelerated this positive regional dynamism.
But how sustainable is this trend from geopolitics to geoeconomics, and from a red-zone Middle East to a blue-zone one?
The momentum is very encouraging, but its sustainability is very difficult to predict. As the budding forces of co-operation and conversation take hold, there are numerous potential forces of chaos waiting to be activated. Spoilers are all over the place, and at least three of them are worth mentioning. They represent the ugly forces of chaos.
Israel, feeling isolated, tops the list. (This week’s events in Jenin are a worrying sign.) An Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear sites, for instance, would severely derail the current positive momentum towards de-escalation. Radical and revolutionary forces in Iran, meanwhile, have the power to undermine regional rapprochement. And a possible Donald Trump comeback in 2024 could easily freeze the region’s drift into calm. Each one of these three spoilers can change the good C of “co-operation” not only into the bad C of “conflict” but the ugly C of “chaos”.
When we look underneath the current of progress, we can see that on some level that things remain precarious. On top of Sudan already being on fire, peace in Yemen is still fragile. The political track in Libya is, too. And the chances of another round of civil war in Syria cannot be discounted. The seemingly calm Middle East is just one inch away from falling back into the dark tunnel of perpetual tension.
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?
Some facts about bees:
The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer
The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days
A queen bee lives for 3-5 years
This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony
About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive
Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.
Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen
Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids
Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments
Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive, protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts
Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain
Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities
The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes
Is beekeeping dangerous?
As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.
“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”
China and the UAE agree comprehensive strategic partnership
China and the UAE forged even closer links between the two countries during the landmark state visit after finalising a ten-point agreement on a range of issues, from international affairs to the economy and trade and renewable energy.
1. Politics: The two countries agreed to support each other on issues of security and to work together on regional and international challenges. The nations also confirmed that the number of high-level state visits between China and the UAE will increase.
2. Economy: The UAE offers its full support to China's Belt and Road Initiative, which will combine a land 'economic belt" and a "maritime silk road" that will link China with the Arabian Gulf as well as Southeast, South and Central China, North Africa and, eventually, Europe.
3. Business and innovation: The two nations are committed to exploring new partnerships in sectors such as Artificial Intelligence, energy, the aviation and transport industries and have vowed to build economic co-operation through the UAE-China Business Committee.
4. Education, science and technology: The Partnership Programme between Arab countries in Science and Technology will encourage young Emirati scientists to conduct research in China, while the nations will work together on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, renewable energy and space projects.
5. Renewable energy and water: The two countries will partner to develop renewable energy schemes and work to reduce climate change. The nations have also reiterated their support for the Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency.
6. Oil and gas: The UAE and China will work in partnership in the crude oil trade and the exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources.
7. Military and law enforcement and security fields: Joint training will take place between the Chinese and UAE armed forces, while the two nations will step up efforts to combat terrorism and organised crime.
8. Culture and humanitarian issues: Joint cultural projects will be developed and partnerships will be cultivated on the preservation of heritage, contemporary art and tourism.
9. Movement between countries: China and the UAE made clear their intent to encourage travel between the countries through a wide-ranging visa waiver agreement.
10. Implementing the strategic partnership: The Intergovernmental Co-operation Committee, established last year, will be used to ensure the objectives of the partnership are implemented.
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Mobile phone packages comparison
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
