Can lessons from 2022 help us shockproof the world in 2023?

Nurses participate in a protest outside the St Thomas' Hospital in London in December. AP Photo

What shocks will 2023 have in store for the world? Think of the surprises over the years and how they forced us to change our perspectives and decisions; Brexit, Donald Trump's US presidential election win, the Gulf crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are examples.

Then consider in 2022, there was also the US Supreme Court overturning its landmark 1973 "Roe v Wade" ruling, which had enshrined a constitutional right to abortion. And Liz Truss recorded only 44 days as British prime minister – the shortest-ever tenure – after markets and investors revolted over her fiscal plans.

Extreme weather, from Europe sweltering to flooding in Pakistan to the "blizzard of the century" in North America, caused chaos, death and destruction this year.

In Iran, the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini following her arrest sparked a huge wave of protests. The UN says hundreds have been killed and at least 14,000 arrested.

An energy crisis, resulting in higher prices across the world amid tight supply, has pressured consumers, businesses and governments alike. In Sri Lanka, it ultimately meant president Gotabaya Rajapaksa having to escape the country.

Finally, Lionel Messi won the World Cup, leading Argentina to victory in Qatar, even after losing their opening match to Saudi Arabia in a shock for the sporting ages.

In Lebanon, The National recorded 27 bank heists since the start of the year as depositors took desperate measures to access savings frozen after the country's economIc collapse.

FILE - Argentina's Lionel Messi celebrates with the World Cup trophy in Lusail, Qatar, in December. AP Photo

Soldiers scuffle with retired army members outside the Beirut parliament building. AP

Retired army members run from tear gas fired by riot police. AP

A retired army member chants slogans from the ground. AP

A demonstrator holds a Lebanese flag during the protest. Reuters

The was a heavy army presence. AP

Emotions run high in central Beirut. EPA

Lebanese army soldiers clash with protesters. EPA

Politicians were attending a parliament session to approve the 2022 budget. EPA

Retired army members tried to enter to the parliament building. AP

It is almost certain there will be many surprises to come in 2023

Some of the above examples – not meant to be an exhaustive list – could perhaps have been foreseen given developments in 2021, nonetheless they took most of us by surprise. Picking through what occurred this past year, there are signs of what could be the shocks of the coming 12 months.

Let's begin with the prospect of climate terrorism. We have seen, in France, a cement factory sabotaged by activists for its high emissions. In London, tomato soup was thrown at Van Gogh’s Sunflowers painting. SUV tires have been deflated in cities across Europe and the US. The top of a Christmas tree in Berlin was chopped off as climate campaigners in Germany literally stepped up their activity. The blockading of motorways, major city roads and airports, and individuals gluing themselves to various structures, have become common. It is worth wondering if this is only the beginning of the cycle of protests over climate action.

Andreas Malm, associate professor of human ecology at Lund University and author of How to Blow Up a Pipeline, told Bloomberg to expect more extreme acts. “The task for the climate movement is to make clear for people that building new pipelines, new gas terminals, opening new oil fields are acts of violence that need to be stopped – they kill people,” Mr Malm said.

Such a course would create fresh levels of fear and anxiety.

Next, one must think about rising levels of industrial action. In the UK, driving examiners became the latest group to strike over pay. A familiar scene in train stations has been crowds of people left waiting on platforms. Doctors and nurses are also taking measures.

The trend is set to spread across Europe, and perhaps beyond, as inflation and economic recession take more bites out of falling standards of living. The impact of millions more lost work days in 2023 to industrial action would be felt across borders and further disrupt supply chains.

Cars that were washed away by heavy rains are piled up in an alley in the Saudi coastal city of Jeddah on November 25. AFP

Purple Ribbon ridden by Jack Mitchell races in the Unibet Wild Flower Stakes at Kempton Park in Sunbury, England. Getty Images

A diver wearing a Santa Claus costume swims with fish in a large tank during a festive underwater performance at Hakkeijima Sea Paradise in Yokohama, Japan. Reuters

A view of the Empire State Building at the Summit One Vanderbilt observation deck in Manhattan. New York officials report tourism in the US city has rebounded to 85 per cent of pre-Covid levels. AFP

The National's Andy Scott climbs up the 123m flag pole with Trident Support on Sharjah's Flag island. Antonie Robertson / The National

A student holds balloons as she takes part in an awareness campaign on World Aids Day in Chennai. AFP

Base-jumper Dani Roman wearing a wingsuit crosses the main arc of the New Bridge in Ronda, Spain. AFP

Competitors in the Raid des Alizes all-female adventure race on the French Caribbean island of Martinique. AFP

Al Bahr Towers illuminated to mark UAE's 51st National Day, and Mubadala tower marks Commemoration Day, Abu Dhabi. Khushnum Bhandari / The National

A boy extracts oil from sesame seeds using a camel-powered mill in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan. AFP

Katara Cultural Village in Doha, Qatar. AP Photo

Lava flows from Mauna Loa, the world's biggest active volcano, as it erupts for the first time in 38 years, posing a threat to the people of Hawaii's Big Island. AP

Circus members from Kenya perform during the weekly general audience held by Pope Francis in St Peter's Square at the Vatican in Rome. Reuters

Match officials and players walk out ahead of the Fifa World Cup match between Portugal and Uruguay at Lusail Stadium in Qatar. Getty Images

A man steers a boat in Dal Lake amid a thick blanket of fog in Srinagar. AFP

Tolerance Bridge, a suspension footbridge over the new creek extension along Al Safa park in Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National

A dog guards a car's compartment after a massive avalanche of mud and debris hit the town of Casamicciola Terme in Italy following intense rain. EPA

Uruguay fans watch the match between Uruguay and Portugal at the Qatar World Cup on a screen in Montevideo. Reuters

Spain’s Maritime Rescue Service said it has rescued three stowaways, pictured above, who were travelling on an oil tanker’s rudder in the Canary Islands after the vessel sailed there from Nigeria. AP

Belongings burn as Mexican authorities attempt to enforce an eviction at a migrant encampment close to the US border in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. EPA

Mark Devay in the swimming leg of the World Triathlon Championship Finals Abu Dhabi. Chris Whiteoak / The National

Turkish riot police in Istanbul take part in a demonstration marking the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women. EPA

A damaged bus by the sea, after a landslide on the holiday island of Ischia, Italy. Reuters

Caps are placed on spectators' seats before the Fifa World Cup match between Japan and Costa Rica in Doha, Qatar. EPA

Ukrainian servicemen rush to change their BM-21 Grad's position after firing towards Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine. AFP

Palestinians watch a live broadcast of the World Cup football match between South Korea and Ghana, in the street in Gaza City. AP Photo

A small plane remains stuck after it crashed into power lines, knocking out electricity for tens of thousands of residents, in Gaithersburg, Maryland, US. EPA

Lopburi locals provide a platter of fruits for the monkey population in Lop Buri, Thailand at the annual Monkey Festival. Getty

Thousands of members of the Nazareth Baptist Church at the annual prayer and reconciliation ceremony 400 kilometres north of Durban, South Africa. AFP

In this long camera exposure, cars drive down Saddle Road near Hilo, Hawaii, as Mauna Loa, the world's largest active volcano, erupts for the first time in 38 years in the distance. AP Photo

Two protesters threw tomato soup at Vincent Van Gogh's 1888 painting 'Sunflowers' at the National Gallery in London in October. EPA

There's also the chance of a big company failing. It has been a rocky few months for stock markets and share prices. The outlook for growth for a number of former investment darlings are more pessimistic with global economic forecasts weakening. Business paradigms are swiftly changing and the nature of the herd mentality, thanks to social media and ubiquitous trading apps, means there could be a shock collapse of a huge company in 2023.

Also, technology hasn’t surprised us too much since the iPhone and we are due a real gamechanger. One even that might eviscerate a previously unassailable business model overnight, leaving the corporate landscape emptier.

Could this be the year when the football bubble finally bursts? So far proving immune to outside economic forces, the English Premier League has only become bigger since it was formed 30 years ago. In the past, there have been isolated crises at several big football clubs in Europe – most notably, Glasgow Rangers and Barcelona.

But it would be a huge surprise if billions of pounds were suddenly sucked out of the English game, especially given that the Bournemouth football club was recently taken over by American businessman Bill Foley in a sign many still believe in the health of England’s top flight. However, it cannot defy gravity forever.

Overall, we cannot, of course, predict such shocks with any great confidence, although it is almost certain there will be many surprises to come in 2023. Already there are signs of more war and conflict on the horizon. After the experience of this past year, we are all braced for worse.

Unless, of course, the real shock in 2023 is that there are none. Now, that is a thought worth savouring as the year draws to a close.