Smoke rises in the village of Przewodow, near Poland's border with Ukraine, where two people were killed by an explosion apparently caused by a missile. Reuters
Damage caused by the explosion in Przewodow. Reuters
Damage caused by the explosion in Przewodow. Reuters
Police vehicles at a checkpoint after a security cordon was set up around the village. Getty
The police blockade around Przewodow. Reuters
Polish President Andrzej Duda said Polish defence chiefs had met in Warsaw. EPA
Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller and security chief Jacek Siewiera at the meeting in Warsaw. EPA
US President Joe Biden talks on the phone with Polish President Andrzej Duda as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, center, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken listen, in Bali, Indonesia. AP
Nato and G7 leaders at the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, hold a meeting to discuss the explosions. AFP
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
November 20, 2022
There was a moment of panic this week when a missile landed in Poland, killing two people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was a Russian missile, but this notion was challenged by US President Joe Biden and other Nato leaders who said the evidence indicated it was an Ukrainian air defence missile intended to shoot down one of about 100 cruise missiles Russia had launched against Ukrainian cities.
The western prudence was not the result of a change in attitude towards Moscow or its war against Ukraine. It was more a reflection of caution against slipping into a possible third world war.
In truth, Nato member Poland inadvertently being drawn into the Ukraine war is an accident waiting to happen, or in the future could be an intended accident unless the conflict is contained or ended. A cold winter is coming, Russia's bombardment campaign is ongoing, and the risk of nuclear war stands. This episode could be a useful opportunity for leaders to consider the options available to them in light of developments on the battlefield.
Gen Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, again appealed to Kyiv to use its military advantage to begin peace talks with Moscow. Gen Milley’s view is that completely dislodging Russian forces from Ukraine will not be easily attainable for Mr Zelenskyy, given Moscow’s determination to maintain control of Crimea.
Mr Biden was reportedly upset this week by Mr Zelenskyy’s conduct. To some, the latter had prematurely accused Moscow of striking Poland to mobilise more support for his country. This, while the G20 summit in Bali was going on.
The Kremlin praised Mr Biden's “measured” response, signalling its readiness for negotiations to end the war, even if just to test the waters. Mr Biden and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had previously said it was up to Ukraine to decide whether it was ready for talks. Implicit in this message was an appeal to Kyiv to negotiate. At the same time, Washington realises that the Kremlin won’t accept a deal to reverse its annexation of Ukrainian territories, and is aware that Russian President Vladimir views peace talks as a sign of defeat for his government.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Thursday. Bloomberg
There are voices in Ukraine encouraging the leadership to accept a ceasefire, because of the devastation
All this means that the worst is yet to come. There are also no guarantees that a Russia-Nato war, as a result of a calculated error or an accident, can be contained.
However, ideas are being exchanged behind the scenes in the concerned capitals, including to distinguish between a ceasefire and a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. A peace treaty requires making a deal on the disputed territories, which seems impossible right now.
“This is a conflict between two constitutions – not between two presidents,” one expert told me, referring to the notion that both countries recognise the territories in question to be theirs. So, as another expert in the know put it, negotiations should instead focus on "security principles and guarantees for the two countries and finding creative formulas that bypass the issue of territories”.
It is believed that steps are being taken that could lead to negotiations – not between the leaders of the two countries but at a lower level – focused on affirming Ukraine's de jure ownership of the territories while acknowledging they are under Russian administration.
I am given to understand that Germany and France are pushing for a Christmas ceasefire between December 20 and January 15, which has Kyiv's implicit approval despite its public insistence on the 10 points it put forward to the G20 summit by way of a roadmap towards negotiations.
There are voices in Ukraine encouraging the leadership to accept a ceasefire, because of the devastation. Kyiv expects up to 50 per cent of the country’s infrastructure will be destroyed if the Russian bombardment continues at its current pace.
On the other hand, accepting a ceasefire would be difficult for the Kremlin, especially as some in the military would see this as a repetition of the Minsk agreements. Eventually, however, accepting a ceasefire would be a political decision that would have to be made by Mr Putin.
Some world powers oppose Nato’s push to drive Russia out of Europe, inflict a crushing defeat on Moscow, and perhaps even remove Mr Putin from power. At the Bali summit, it was clear that China, India and Indonesia had reservations about Nato’s conduct. It’s promising, therefore, that Mr Biden's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced a consensus and a shared message to Moscow that nuclear threats are unacceptable.
Joe Biden, Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan speak with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the G20 summit in Bali last week. Reuters
An evident feature of their meeting was the two leaders' careful navigation of issues and a determination to avoid confrontation. They clung to their traditional, divergent positions on several issues, from Taiwan to the economy to their rivalry on strategic dominance. But they avoided using a tone of escalation, defiance and obstruction. Mr Biden affirmed he did not believe the US and China were in a new cold war. The two presidents also signalled a readiness for dialogue to resolve differences.
Their meeting was, in that sense, reassuring.
The Bali summit was an overall success for Mr Biden, who emerged as a serious, composed leader while handling a major crisis. He did not make hasty decisions following the strike inside Poland, nor did he attempt to outmanoeuvre Mr Xi. He might, therefore, have passed important foreign policy tests.
By contrast, his predecessor, Donald Trump, is fighting a domestic battle imposed on him by the unfavourable outcome of the midterm elections that revealed a structural weakness that could affect his 2024 presidential run. Mr Trump did not tackle foreign policy during his announcement to run, except to criticise the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan last year. Mr Trump linked the restoration of American "greatness” to his desired return to the White House, but he did not put forward a programme of global leadership as had been anticipated.
The midterm elections ended up thinning out extremists from both the Democratic and Republican camps. The message from American voters was that they need pragmatism and wisdom during a difficult time for the world at large.
Pragmatism and wisdom were indeed on display last week, in managing a number of the world’s pressing issues. But the powers that be will appreciate that is really no alternative to a strategic resolution of unconstrained wars and unpredictable escalations. There is no time to lose.
RESULTS
Bantamweight:
Zia Mashwani (PAK) bt Chris Corton (PHI)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) bt Mohammad Al Khatib (JOR)
Super lightweight:
Dwight Brooks (USA) bt Alex Nacfur (BRA)
Bantamweight:
Tariq Ismail (CAN) bt Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)
Featherweight:
Abdullatip Magomedov (RUS) bt Sulaiman Al Modhyan (KUW)
Middleweight:
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) bt Christofer Silva (BRA)
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.
Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16, second leg (first-leg scores in brackets):
PSG (2) v Manchester United (0)
Midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
