Dr James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute and a columnist for The National
November 16, 2022
Much ink has been spilled before and since the US midterm elections, with most of it missing the mark. Pundits who had unrealistic expectations regarding the outcome are now reacting in shock (or horror or delight, depending on their political persuasion) as their projections have been found wanting.
For example, those who forecast a “big red wave” are left to explain why it didn’t materialise. Never satisfied with simply being wrong, there are those who are now breathing a sigh of relief and incorrectly assuming that the closeness of this election means that the US electorate is moving away from the polarisation that has come to characterise our polity.
They are wrong. There never was going to be a “big wave,” and Americans remain as deeply divided as ever. As I wrote a few weeks back, this election was always going to be a “nail biter” – with the outcome never assured. Even before votes were cast, it should have been clear that the needle separating the gap between the two parties in Congress would move centimetres, not metres. Here’s why:
As a result of a decennial redistricting process favouring them, Republicans appeared certain to pick up a few new seats. They were counting on the public’s sour mood over inflation and high disapproval ratings for US President Joe Biden to give them an extra advantage in winning additional seats. But there were limits to how far they could grow their numbers because, of the 435 congressional seats that were being contested, only about 10 per cent were competitive. The remaining 90 per cent were solidly either Democratic or Republican. With Democrats holding a slim eight-seat majority in the House of Representatives, it was reasonable to assume that Republicans might take control of the Congress, but unreasonable to assume a landslide. Even now, a week after the election, with a handful of congressional seats remaining “too close to call”, the networks are projecting a slim 221-214 Republican majority. The Senate is no different. It now appears clear that in the next Congress, Democrats will at least maintain a 50-50 split or even, depending on the outcome of a run-off election in Georgia, expand their control of the Senate to 51-49.
US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a Democrat rally in Washington, as President Joe Biden and their spouses Jill Biden and Doug Emhoff listen. Bloomberg
Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, speaks at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. Former astronaut and Democratic candidate Mark Kelly defeated his Republican rival in Arizona's senate race. Reuters
Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer, left, opens mail-in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. Ballots were being counted in Maricopa County three days after voters went to the polls for the midterm election in Arizona. AFP
Election workers open mail-in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. AFP
Staff scan ballots for the US midterm elections at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. Reuters
Election workers open mail-in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. AFP
In a divided America, a political campaign sign sits abandoned at the roadside in Phoenix, Arizona, two days after the midterms. AFP
Ballots are processed in Las Vegas. Getty Images
Election officials give a press conference in Maricopa County, Arizona, where ballots were still being counted two days after the midterms. AFP
Ballots are carried to be scanned in Philadelphia. Reuters
Mr Biden was all smiles during a news conference in the White House. Bloomberg
An election worker sorts ballots in Las Vegas. AFP
Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre. AFP
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger holds a news conference in Atlanta. AP
Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso gets a hug on stage at his election night headquarters in Los Angeles. AP
Paul Riley, father of Josh Riley, bows his head as election results come in at his son's election party in Binghamton, New York. Josh Riley, the Democratic candidate, ran against Republican Marc Molinaro. AP
Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer speaks during election night in Detroit. AP
Supporters cheer during an election night event for Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Mr Fetterman defeated Republican Senate candidate Dr Mehmet Oz. AFP
Supporters watch news of a projected victory for Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Reuters
Republican J D Vance arrives with his wife Usha to declare victory in the Senatorial race in Columbus, Ohio. Reuters
New York Governor Kathy Hochul attends an event to celebrate her victory in the US midterm elections. Reuters
Representative Abigail Spanberger, of the Democratic party, speaks to supporters after her re-election, in Fredericksburg, Virginia. AP
Democrat Wes Moore, second from left, hugs his daughter, Mia, centre, as his mother, Joy Thomas Moore, left, son, Jamie, second from right, and wife, Dawn, look on, after he was declared the winner of the Maryland race for governor. AP
A supporter of Republican candidate Lee Zeldin reacts as media outlets predict results, in the race for governor, in favour of Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul. AP
Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt celebrates his re-election, at a Republican Party watch party in Oklahoma City. AP
Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia Stacey Abrams speaks during her 2022 US midterm elections night party in Atlanta, Georgia. Her rival Brian Kemp won. Reuters
A woman arrives before Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters during an election night party in Tampa. AP
Voters wait in line at a polling station at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs in Austin, Texas. AP
A voter goes to cast their vote after filling out their ballot at a polling station inside The Shed arts centre in Manhattan. AP
A jogger runs past the Capitol Building in Washington. The US midterm elections are held every four years at the midpoint of each presidential term. EPA
Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis waves from the stage next to his wife Casey and children during his midterm elections party in Tampa. Reuters
A man in costume arrives for a Republican party 'Save America' rally before the US midterm elections, in Miami, Florida. AFP
US President Joe Biden, centre, poses for a selfie with supporters during a rally for Democratic candidates, including New York Governor Kathy Hochul, at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York. AFP
A man marks his ballot during early voting in Lansing, Michigan. Reuters
A child attends a rally held by US President Joe Biden with Democratic nominee for Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Senator Chris Van Hollen and other Maryland Democrats, at Bowie State University. Reuters
Supporters cheer during a rally for Democratic candidates at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York. AFP
State Representative Leslie Rossi poses by a giant cutout of former US President Donald Trump in front of the "Trump House", which she owns and created in 2016, in Youngstown, Pennsylvania. AFP
Republican candidate for US Senate for Arizona Blake Masters speaks at a rally in Queen Creek, Arizona. EPA
People in the crowd cheer during a campaign rally at Bowie State University in Maryland, which was attended President Joe Biden, the first lady, Jill Biden, Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore and Senator Chris Van Hollen. AP
Republican candidate for Arizona governor Kari Lake arrives for a campaign stop, in Phoenix. Reuters
Morgan Koetje and Nickolas Lentz from Reproductive Freedom for All, canvass a neighborhood in support of Proposal 3, a ballot measure that would codify the right to an abortion, one day before the midterm election in Dewitt, Michigan. Reuters
Republican candidate for US Senate Herschel Walker takes a picture with supporters in Kennesaw, Georgia during a "Unite Georgia Bus Stop" campaign rally on the eve of the midterm elections. AFP
Republican Senate candidate Val Demings speaks to supporters in Wilton Manors, Florida. AP
Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz addresses campaign rally in Pennsburg, Pennsylvania. AP
Former president Donald Trump speaks at a rally in support of the campaign of Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance, at Dayton International Airport. AP
President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden arrive for the rally at Bowie State University, in Maryland. AP
Voters pass by a sign outside a polling site in Warwick, Rhode Island after casting their ballots on the last day of early voting before the midterm election. AP
Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacey Abrams speaks to volunteers during an election eve phone and text bank party in Atlanta. AP
US Vice President Kamala Harris, left, points to Los Angeles mayoral candidate Representative Karen Bass, after speaking at a rally in Los Angeles. AP
Another area where the pundits are wrong is in their assessment of the fading power of former president Donald Trump. Before the election, commentators mistakenly framed it as a nationalised popularity contest between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. While it was true that Mr Trump had a hand in advancing some of his favoured Republican candidates, midterm elections are mostly localised contests. So, while some Trump acolytes lost against more popular Democrats, it’s a stretch to see the outcome as a definitive referendum on the former president.
In the wake of the election, there is a virtual media frenzy portraying Mr Trump as the big loser and a drag on his party. There are reports of other Republicans feeling emboldened to challenge the wounded leader in 2024. For some in the media, it’s a done deal – he is out, replaced by a new “flavour of the month”. Once again, caution is advised. It’s important to recall how many times Mr Trump was declared finished in the past. Each time there was a new scandal or an embarrassing debate performance, the press declared his candidacy dead. There were rumours as late as the Republican convention that the party leadership would try to end his candidacy. Although he is flawed, his hold over a substantial component of the Republican constituency remains strong. And now that Mr Trump has decided to run again, the party establishment will quietly gripe, fuss and fume, but they’ll avoid alienating Mr Trump’s fervent base.
One last observation about how some got this election so wrong: the defeat of some Trump loyalists and the closeness of the final results do not mean that Americans are coming together. In fact, as the exit polls make clear, the country remains as deeply polarised as ever – it’s just evenly divided between two warring camps.
Republican nominee for governor of Arizona Kari Lake at a rally at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona. AFP
Democrats voted for their party’s candidates, Republicans for theirs. Independent voters split down the middle. Democrats give Mr Biden high ratings, Republicans don’t. Republicans give high ratings to Mr Trump, Democrats don’t. Similarly, partisans on each side have deeply unfavourable views of the “other side”. And their views on issues like abortion, climate change, immigration, gun control and racism are mirror images of each other.
Not only did this election not ease the polarisation, it accelerated it. Both parties and their related interest group political committees spent an unprecedented $10 billion in TV and digital advertising during this campaign. There were no positive messages of healing and national unity. Many of the ads focused on attacks against the other party’s candidates and projections of negative doomsday scenarios if that other party should win. This incessant polluting of the political discourse has been corrosive. A few examples: 60 per cent of Republicans still believe that Mr Biden didn’t win the election and that he is an illegitimate president. And in just the first 10 months of 2022, there have already been 9,625 recorded threats against members of Congress.
Because we still don’t know what the final outcome of this election will be, it’s hard to make projections moving forward. If Republicans do win control of the House, they will be unable to restrain themselves. There will be investigations of the president and his family, maybe even a move toward impeachment, and government shutdowns owing to their refusal to pass budget extensions. All of this will only deepen the polarisation, making the next two years both difficult and divided.
Dr James Zogby is president of the Arab American Institute and a columnist for The National
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
The flights
The closest international airport to the TMB trail is Geneva (just over an hour’s drive from the French ski town of Chamonix where most people start and end the walk). Direct flights from the UAE to Geneva are available with Etihad and Emirates from about Dh2,790 including taxes.
The trek
The Tour du Mont Blanc takes about 10 to 14 days to complete if walked in its entirety, but by using the services of a tour operator such as Raw Travel, a shorter “highlights” version allows you to complete the best of the route in a week, from Dh6,750 per person. The trails are blocked by snow from about late October to early May. Most people walk in July and August, but be warned that trails are often uncomfortably busy at this time and it can be very hot. The prime months are June and September.
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack
The emirate’s public education system has been in a constant state of change since the New School Model was launched in 2010 by the Abu Dhabi Education Council. The NSM, which is also known as the Abu Dhabi School Model, transformed the public school curriculum by introducing bilingual education starting with students from grades one to five. Under this new curriculum, the children spend half the day learning in Arabic and half in English – being taught maths, science and English language by mostly Western educated, native English speakers. The NSM curriculum also moved away from rote learning and required teachers to develop a “child-centered learning environment” that promoted critical thinking and independent learning. The NSM expanded by one grade each year and by the 2017-2018 academic year, it will have reached the high school level. Major reforms to the high school curriculum were announced in 2015. The two-stream curriculum, which allowed pupils to elect to follow a science or humanities course of study, was eliminated. In its place was a singular curriculum in which stem -- science, technology, engineering and maths – accounted for at least 50 per cent of all subjects. In 2016, Adec announced additional changes, including the introduction of two levels of maths and physics – advanced or general – to pupils in Grade 10, and a new core subject, career guidance, for grades 10 to 12; and a digital technology and innovation course for Grade 9. Next year, the focus will be on launching a new moral education subject to teach pupils from grades 1 to 9 character and morality, civic studies, cultural studies and the individual and the community.
HIV on the rise in the region
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
