Dr Ebtesam Al Ketbi is the president of the Emirates Policy Centre
July 12, 2022
US President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East this week is undoubtedly a precious opportunity for the region to express its belief in strengthening its friendships and long-standing strategic partnerships with the world’s most powerful country. This is an historic visit that should be welcomed warmly, and America’s regional allies – particularly in the UAE – will know that it can contribute toward bringing Washington’s relationships in the region to a new level. A more robust foundation for US alliances here would better reflect mutual interests and consolidate regional security. In light of continuing shifts in the regional and global strategic environments, this is more important now than ever before.
As per Mr Biden’s previous statements, his visit, which comes before the upcoming US mid-term elections, will focus on the potential and promising opportunities emerging from the Middle East’s new dynamics. The Abraham Accords are a prime example. They have generated an unprecedented level of co-operation between Arab countries and Israel. It is likely, therefore, that a major focus of the US President’s tour will be on developing new understandings and regional partnerships. This includes not only security but also other areas, like clean energy and food and water security.
Hopefully, the visit will solidify the US strategy for burden-sharing, which is essential to creating more efficient and credible tools to safeguard Washington and its allies’ interests. There is in this visit a great opportunity, for instance, to consolidate the Negev Forum as an annual summit that can bring more Middle East countries together in areas that go beyond their immediate economic and security needs and create a more sustainable modus vivendi for the region’s people. The first Negev Forum took place in Israel in March of last year, and brought together the foreign ministers of Bahrain, Israel, Morocco and the UAE, as well as the US Secretary of State. It was a watershed event, establishing a new framework for regional co-operation. The participants agreed to form six working groups, on clean energy, education and co-existence, food and water security, health, regional security and tourism. That work should continue.
Strengthening regional co-operation between Arab countries and Israel seems a promising development, and it comes with great expectations. But it is also essential not to lose sight of other issues.
One is the critical challenge of meeting the demands of a political settlement for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, reducing tensions and escalations, and involving the Palestinians in current and future regional co-operation efforts. Without this, a comprehensive and sustainable regional peace will remain elusive.
Another challenge is Iran’s regional behaviour. The members of the GCC and other Arab countries still advocate a diplomatic approach with Iran, including economic diplomacy rather than the use of military options. At the same time, GCC countries need to be assured about the peaceful nature of Tehran’s nuclear programme. The same goes for its ballistic missile programme and harmful regional policies.
Iran's weapons programmes remain a concern for Arab states. AP
GCC countries need to be assured about the peaceful nature of Tehran’s nuclear programme
It is the hope of many here that Mr Biden’s visit will strengthen UAE and GCC security and defence capabilities against missiles, drones and other emerging threats, and enhance US-GCC ties. Many also want to see the visit earmark a new approach to regional security – one that combines deterrence with containment, de-escalation policies and consolidated economic solutions. This would be a prelude to promoting security and expanding co-operation between Arab countries, including Palestinians, but also with Turkey and Israel.
It is important to clearly outline the benchmarks for a successful visit by Mr Biden. Two, in particular, stand out.
The first is whether it results in the creation of a solid approach to addressing Iranian threats while also maintaining diplomatic engagement with Tehran and preventing regional conflict. If the US uses its influence to contain Iranian threats and integrate Iran into the diplomatic path, the US burden-sharing strategy will receive a strong push from Washington’s Middle Eastern allies.
The second benchmark is whether or not it will clarify contours of US policy concerning China and Russia that take into account the interests of Arab states. The desires of GCC countries as well as other allies of the US to maintain strategic balancing in their policies will depend to a great extent on the nature of US commitment towards the security and interests of those partners and broader regional stability.
The Middle East has made great strides in regional co-operation and co-existence recently. Many of the building blocks for peace are there. But the US still has a very large role to play in strengthening the fundamentals of this evolving peace, and it can do so by showing that its commitment to its allies is both unwavering and in touch with their needs and concerns. Mr Biden’s visit provides a much-needed opportunity to achieve this.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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