What Biden can offer Putin in exchange for peace in Ukraine

Cars are left abandoned on a road as residents flee the town of Irpin, Ukraine after days of heavy shelling. Reuters

A Ukrainian soldier helps a family fleeing from Irpin. Reuters

A bus passes the Duke of Wellington statue, which has a traffic cone in the colours of the flag of Ukraine placed on top of it, in Glasgow, Scotland. AP

Ukrainian children sleep at the reception point at the train station in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters

Smoke rises as a Ukrainian soldier stands by the only escape route used by locals to flee from the town of Irpin. Reuters

A man flees from Irpin. Reuters

A screengrab from footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry shows a purported Russian tank unit advancement in the Kyiv region. AFP

People walk on debris of residential buildings damaged by shelling in the Zhytomyr region. Reuters

A damaged residential building after Russian multiple rocket launchers shelled the area in the southern city of Mykolaiv. AFP

Ukrainian soldiers sit in their armoured vehicle after fighting against Russian troops and Russia-backed separatists near Zolote village, Luhansk region. AFP

A woman offers accommodation for people fleeing Ukraine at the main railway station in Berlin, Germany. Getty Images

A soldier holds a helmet as a wedding crown during the ceremony for members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces Lesia Ivashchenko and Valerii Fylymonov, at a checkpoint in Kyiv. AP

Ukrainian soldiers carry a woman fleeing the town of Irpin. AP

A factory and warehouse burn after being bombarded in Irpin. AP

Ukrainian soldiers near Zolote. AFP

A Ukrainian refugee boy, wearing a blanket on his shoulders, warms his hands with a gas heater shortly after crossing the Siret border into northern Romania. EPA

People demonstrate against the Russian military operation in Ukraine in Buenos Aires, Argentina. EPA

First responders work at the scene after a missile hit a building at Havryshivka Vinnytsia International Airport in Vinnytsia, Ukraine. Reuters

A woman at a checkpoint on the road to Kyiv after her evacuation from a nearby town. AFP

A placard in the Ukrainian colours is held up at an anti-war demonstration the Bebelplatz square in Berlin, Germany. Reuters

A Ukrainian serviceman helps an elderly woman in Irpin, 20 kilometres north-west of the capital Kyiv. AP Photo

Protesters cry during a demonstration in support of Ukraine at the Plaza Catalunya square in Barcelona. AFP

A man walks past a machine gun at a checkpoint next to the last bridge on the road that connects the town of Stoyanka to the outskirts of Ukraine's capital Kyiv. AFP

Ukrainian servicemen put a wounded man on a stretcher in Irpin. AP Photo

People board a train to return to Ukraine after getting supplies in Zahony, Hungary. AP Photo

Balloons in the colors of Ukraine during a demonstration against the Russian attack on Ukraine, in Mainz, Germany. AP

A Ukrainian girl helps to weave a camouflage net for the Ukrainian army, in Odesa. EPA

Molotov cocktails prepared by a group of volunteers in Odesa. Hundreds are made every day. EPA

Ukrainian servicemen assist people fleeing the town of Irpin after crossing the Irpin River on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian air strike. AP Photo

A woman holds a dog while crossing the Irpin River on an improvised path under a bridge that was destroyed by a Russian airstrike, while assisting people fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP Photo

Marina Yatsko and her boyfriend Fedor comfort each other at a hospital in Mariupol after her 18-month-old son Kirill was killed by shelling. AP Photo

Ukrainian civilians receive weapons training in a cinema in Lviv, western Ukraine. AP Photo

Residents flee the town of Irpin, near Kyiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

Ukrainian soldiers carry a sick woman as civilians flee Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, after Russian attacks. AP Photo

Captured Russian soldiers at a press conference in the Interfax news agency in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

Ukrainians beneath a destroyed bridge in Irpin. AP Photo

A woman fleeing Ukraine on a bus near the border crossing in Korczowa, Poland. AP Photo

A Ukrainian soldier and a militia man help a fleeing family on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 5, 2022. AP Photo

Smoke rises after shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol. AP Photo

People at a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol. AP Photo

Displaced Ukrainians at the Resurrection New Athos Monastery in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP

Russia’s is not the only leadership that finds itself in a bind more than a week since the Ukraine war began. Leaders in the West, particularly US President Joe Biden, are struggling to find a way to resolve a crisis that has the potential of spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders into the rest of Europe.

Moscow finds itself in a corner for chiefly two reasons: Ukraine’s forces have robustly defended much of their territory against the Russian military; and western governments have imposed a range of crippling sanctions on the Russian economy in a rare show of unity.

However, the euphoria felt across Europe and North America over these early victories has been replaced, to some extent, by two concerns. One, Russian forces have made inroads into Ukraine, particularly in the south, and two, Moscow has ordered Russia’s military to put its deterrence forces – which include nuclear weapons – on “special alert”. The announcement doesn’t mean that it intends to use its nukes, but western governments have viewed it to be an escalatory step.

The situation, therefore, requires thinking outside the box on the part of the world leaders – and, given America’s position as a superpower, the only leader with the tools to bring about a shift is Mr Biden.

Any attempt on Biden’s part to reach out to Putin will be an act of courage and not weakness

The Biden administration needs to understand that, by engaging in brinkmanship with Moscow, it risks pushing Russia further into a corner that could prove costly for the whole world. The objective should not be to teach its leadership a lesson, but to come up with creative ideas that may appear simple and might even give the wrong impression to the rest of the international community, yet could prevent a larger-scale war.

Any attempt on Mr Biden’s part to reach out to Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks will be an act of courage and not weakness. In fact, the US President should consider inviting Mr Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to an emergency summit that could also involve the leaders of Germany and France. Mr Biden might get critised for it, with some suggesting that this amounts to rewarding Russia for launching its war against Ukraine in the first place. There will be fears that it could further embolden Kremlin.

However, such an invitation could avert a conflict that is much more devastating and widespread than it currently is. Indeed, talks could provide the blueprint necessary to de-escalate the crisis, the off-ramp the Russian leadership may need and, most importantly, the means to pull the world back from the brink.

We no longer live in an era of “conventional” warfare. An information war is under way in Ukraine, so is a cyber-war. And there’s always the danger of their spilling into Europe and the US. But what’s more frightening is the threat of the war going nuclear – not necessarily culminating in the dropping of atom bombs but the use of nuclear warheads or ballistic missiles.

US President Joe Biden arrives to attend mass at St Joseph on the Brandywine Catholic Church in Wilmington, Delaware, on Saturday. AFP

US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin acted responsibly when he cancelled scheduled nuclear missile tests in order to send Russia a message that it did not want to provoke Moscow or further escalate tensions. Mr Austin also explained the Biden administration’s rationale for not giving in to Kyiv’s demand that Nato set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine, as this would effectively mean the US-led western security alliance’s involvement in the war.

The danger of a European war is, of course, real because of either strategic compulsions or accidents on the ground. Moscow could also be angered if Nato member states continue provide weapons to Ukraine – particularly if they send convoys into Ukraine, rather than offloading them at, say, the border with Poland, which is a Nato member.

But the messaging from Washington is clear: Nato does not seek to engage in an armed conflict with Russia.

One way for the Biden administration to de-escalate the crisis could be to remove some of the sanctions the West recently imposed on Russia. While this alone won’t be sufficient to end the crisis, tactical steps will amount to important gestures of goodwill towards Moscow. Ultimately though, the broader settlement will have to include a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality.

This conflict began with Russia’s demand that Ukraine, once a part of the Russian empire and, along with Russia, a part of the Soviet Union, not join Nato – an anti-Soviet, Cold War-era security alliance. Perhaps a Nato guarantee to keep Ukraine out of its umbrella in perpetuity would be the necessary step towards moving it from under the Russian yoke. There needs to be an acknowledgement that Ukraine cannot and should not be used as a pawn in the broader West-Russia conflict.

This will require political maturity and strategic courage on Mr Biden’s part. It won’t be easy. But by seizing the initiative and reaching out to Moscow for a deal, the US President may be able to settle the debate about his perceived weakness on the world stage. More importantly, by nipping a potential pan-European war in the bud, he will have spared the West of a possibly catastrophic conflict.