Damien McElroy is London bureau chief at The National
February 21, 2022
The expectation that conflicts are unveiled in fragments is as old as war itself. But as events play out in Eastern Europe, the remarkable thing this time round is that almost the entire sequence is being played out in crystal-clear images.
Rows of tanks and attack helicopters captured from satellites have been displayed. The line-up of jets has been fodder for analysts. The level of troops has been counted higher and higher – for example, from just under 100,000 on January 30 to 190,000 on Friday. Heatmaps have purported to show intense activity at key bases. For its part, Russia showed military equipment on the move for key exercises and then transported shipments back eastward to support its claims that a drawback had been initiated.
The body of information constitutes a digital flood. As a result, questions abound. Fears ebb and flow on a daily basis. The mix of open information and intelligence leaks has so far shaped the crisis as much as it’s been a product of it.
That is not to say that the clear moment of truth has been reached.
At around this time of the year in 2014, before the Ukraine conflict first erupted, I shuttled between the cities of Kiev and Donetsk, as well as Sevastopol in Crimea. On the rain-swept streets, the infiltration and seepage of personnel in the eastern region were perceptible in daily chunks. One day there were the Cossacks, a group of East Slavic Orthodox Christians, with their bandoliers at the demonstrations in Donetsk. Then there was a phalanx of figures in bomber jackets and woolen skull caps. Following a similar pattern, in restaurants in Sevastopol, there was a sudden appearance of many bikers at one point.
A satellite image shows a Russian battle group deployment in the Kursk Training Area, Russia, on December 21, 2021. Reuters
Russian forces in Soloti, Russia, on September 7, 2021. Reuters
A satellite image shows Russian forces in Soloti, Russia, on December 5, 2021. Reuters
Russian forces in Soloti, Russia, on September 7, 2021. Reuters
A satellite image released by Maxar Technologies shows Russian armoured units training in the Pogonovo Training Area near Voronezh, Russia, on November 26, 2021. Reuters
A satellite image released by Maxar Technologies reportedly shows Russian ground forces deployed at the Opuk Training Area on December 22, 2021. AFP
Russian ground forces deployed at the Opuk Training Area on December 22, 2021. AFP
A satellite image of a Russian troop location in Soloti, Russia, provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on December 5, 2021. AP
A Russian troop location in Bakhchysarai, Russia. AP
It was the genesis of what became known in think tanks as the "little green men". These were the foot soldiers of a distinct new strategy of hybrid warfare designed to destabilise and muddy the information picture in contested spaces. In Donetsk, the presence of plenty of video specialists helped fuel the clamour around the demonstrations. When the Kremlin's move came, the ground had been prepped and seeded for the eventual takeover – and in Crimea's case, annexation.
On the battlefield, putting together pieces is ordinarily an art not a science.
In 2012, I visited war-torn Libya's north-western city of Zintan, which was a rebel stronghold, to meet a contact from the capital Tripoli who had made it to the other side. He took me to a school where there was an operations room with a mix of locals and Europeans working round the clock. The next day, the offensive was on and the road from the mountains through the western suburbs of Tripoli was opening up. In that instance, the rebels battled through to Tripoli and the regime lost control of the capital.
In 2008, in Georgia, the left turn I took from the main road running east-west happened to be a turning into a kilometres-long column of troop carriers from the nearby Russian-allied enclave. I had been delivered behind the lines.
Developments such as these all added up to knowing just when the action was under way. But getting to that point involved far fewer tangible factors.
The Biden administration's handling of the Ukraine crisis has been likened to the way former US president John F Kennedy orchestrated the Cuban missile crisis in the 1960s. It has been aggressive in its use of intelligence to put Moscow under pressure to justify its actions and claims.
There have been direct revelations that Russian President Vladimir Putin had told his high command to execute an offensive. Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reeled off a list of pretexts for attack including terrorist bombing, mass graves, drone strikes or chemical attacks. Briefings from the Americans and Europeans have also sought to go inside Mr Putin's mind and paint scenarios of multi-pronged invasions along key road arteries in Ukraine. They have been followed by post-invasion plans to round-up or assassinate leading figures in the Ukrainian power structures.
Scenarios around the escalations of the conflict by separatist leaders in the east or cyberattacks on Ukraine have also been painted as plausible points that would trigger sanctions against Moscow.
The Kennedy team held its nerve as it leaked information against the erstwhile Soviet Union, and eventually the pressure was telling. The intensity of the response from the Biden team to the developments on Russia's western frontier, in Belarus as well as in Ukraine, has been far beyond anything seen in the Georgia situation in 2008 or in Ukraine itself in 2014.
Russia's use of video and orchestrated comments have equally provided nodes at which the crisis has moved on. The footage of a burning car in the Donetsk government complex on Friday was out just as soon as the news of an explosion in the city.
The tempo of the imagery and predictions as the crisis has built up has been a key driver to this point. There is no reason not to expect that pace to keep going. And if the projections turn into realities, the events will indeed be as horrendous as both sides have announced.
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
The biog
Marital status: Separated with two young daughters
Education: Master's degree from American Univeristy of Cairo
Favourite book: That Is How They Defeat Despair by Salwa Aladian
Favourite Motto: Their happiness is your happiness
Goal: For Nefsy to become his legacy long after he is gon
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro
Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle.
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle
In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches
Gremio 1 Pachuca 0
Gremio Everton 95’
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
2.30pm: Dubai Creek Tower – Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: Marmara Xm, Gary Sanchez (jockey), Abdelkhir Adam (trainer)
3pm: Al Yasmeen – Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: AS Hajez, Jesus Rosales, Khalifa Al Neyadi
3.30pm: Al Ferdous – Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Soukainah, Sebastien Martino, Jean-Claude Pecout
4pm: The Crown Prince Of Sharjah – Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: AF Thayer, Ray Dawson, Ernst Oertel
4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup – Handicap (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: George Villiers, Antonio Fresu, Bhupat Seemar
5pm: Palma Spring – Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Es Abu Mousa, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
RESULTS
6.30pm: Handicap (rated 95-108) US$125,000 2000m (Dirt).
Winner: Don’t Give Up, Gerald Mosse (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap (95 ) $160,000 2810m (Turf).
Winner: Los Barbados, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.40pm: Handicap (80-89) $60,000 1600m (D).
Winner: Claim The Roses, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (Div-1) Conditions $100,000 1,400m (D)
Winner: Gold Town, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Cape Verdi Group 2 $200,000 1600m (T).
Winner: Promising Run, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.25pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Conditions $100,000 1,400m (D).
Winner: El Chapo, Luke Morris, Fawzi Nass.
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
An arms embargo
A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Tamkeen's offering
Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
Option 2: 50% across three years
Option 3: 30% across five years
UAE SQUAD
Ali Khaseif, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Khalid Essa, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Salem Rashid, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Mohammed Al Attas, Walid Abbas, Hassan Al Mahrami, Mahmoud Khamis, Alhassan Saleh, Ali Salmeen, Yahia Nader, Abdullah Ramadan, Majed Hassan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Fabio De Lima, Khalil Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Muhammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani, Caio Canedo, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
The biog
Place of birth: Kalba
Family: Mother of eight children and has 10 grandchildren
Favourite traditional dish: Al Harees, a slow cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled cracked or coarsely ground wheat mixed with meat or chicken
Favourite book: My early life by Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah
Favourite quote: By Sheikh Zayed, the UAE's Founding Father, “Those who have no past will have no present or future.”
Uefa Nations League: How it Works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8 Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto On sale: Now Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
