If the aim of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is to sow discord within the EU by helping to create a migrant crisis on the Polish border, all the evidence suggests he is succeeding.
In recent weeks thousands of migrants, the majority of them fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, have congregated on Belarus’s border with Poland in the hope of entering the EU to make a better life for themselves.
The EU has accused Mr Lukashenko of being directly responsible for provoking the crisis by allowing migrants from Iraq and Syria to fly to Belarus and then dispatching them to the Polish and Lithuanian borders.
While the Belarusian leader continues to deny any involvement in causing the migrant problem, video footage has emerged which shows the Belarusian military using vehicles to try to take down Polish border posts and wire fencing. Lasers have been directed towards the Polish troops, making it impossible for them to see what is happening, and some migrants have been equipped with stun grenades to throw at the Polish security forces.
The possibility of such a crisis developing on the EU’s borders has been actively discussed in European defence circles. Last spring German intelligence officials produced a 19-page classified document detailing how an adversary might seek to promote border chaos to undermine the EU as part of a “hybrid war”.
And, to judge by the tensions that have arisen among EU states over how best to respond to the crisis, the tactic is having the desired effect.
A migrant crisis caused by people fleeing conflict in the Middle East is not a new phenomenon for European leaders. Tensions between EU member states flared in the summer of 2015 when German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened borders for Syrian refugees fleeing the brutal conflict in their home country to be granted sanctuary in EU states. The initiative met with stiff resistance from many European leaders, causing friction with east European countries such as Hungary, which continue to this day.
Consequently, the appearance of a fresh wave of migrants congregating on the Polish border has created a new crisis for Brussels, one that EU leaders believe has been deliberately instigated by Mr Lukashenko in retaliation for the EU imposing sanctions against his regime.
Relations between Belarus, a former Soviet state that still enjoys close relations with the Kremlin, and the EU hit a new low in the wake of the country’s controversial 2020 elections, which resulted in Mr Lukashenko launching a crackdown against anti-government protesters, with many prominent critics of his regime being forced to flee into exile while others were jailed.
The Belarusian government’s global standing plummeted further after a Ryanair passenger jet was intercepted and forced to land in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, in May to enable the country’s security forces to detain two opposition activists who were passengers on the aircraft.
Poland increased security at its border with Belarus, on the EU’s eastern frontier, after a large group of people appeared to congregate on the Belarusian side of a crossing point, officials said on Monday. AP
People gather at the EU border near Grodno, Belarus. AP
Between 3,000 and 4,000 migrants are near the Belarusian border with Poland, a Polish government spokesman said on Monday. Reuters
Children play in a tree near Grodno. AP
Polish border guards stand near the barbed wire at the border. AP
People keep themselves warm with a fire. AP
Migrants carry someone who has fallen ill. AP
Polish border guards stand behind the barbed wire. AP
Such conduct has led to the imposition of EU sanctions that directly target the Belarusian leader himself, as well as a number of his key acolytes.
Now the EU has accused Minsk of responding by deliberately creating the migrant crisis in an attempt to have the sanctions eased. There have even been suggestions that Russian officials encouraged their Belarusian allies into making this provocative move, although the Kremlin has strongly rejected the claim, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accusing European leaders of creating the crisis through their involvement in the recent conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Libya.
To date, the EU has shown no sign of backing down over its sanctions policy. On Monday, EU foreign ministers held a meeting and agreed to move ahead with imposing more sanctions on Belarus – the fifth round of such restrictions. While the exact details are still to be confirmed, they are likely to include measures against the Belarusian airline Belavia, with the EU ending its leasing contract with the company. Travel agencies are also expected to be sanctioned if they help fly migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere to Minsk.
But while Brussels attempts to present a united front in the crisis, tensions between European leaders are increasing over how best to respond to Belarus’s acts, particularly after eastern countries on the front line accused Germany of side-lining them in the confrontation.
This follows a 50-minute call Mrs Merkel made to Mr Lukashenko earlier this week, the first conversation the Belarusian leader had held with a Western leader since last year’s election. During the call the pair reportedly discussed providing humanitarian aid to the migrants at the border, but the fact the call took place at all had drawn bitter criticism from a number of eastern European states, with Lithuania openly accusing Mrs Merkel of playing into Mr Lukashenko’s hands by giving him further recognition. Belarus media hailed the call as a success of Mr Lukashenko’s policy.
Poland, which is bearing the brunt of the crisis, was particularly aggrieved that it was given just an hour’s notice that Mr Merkel was contacting Mr Lukashenko. The call also succeeded in causing an upset in Latvia, which shares a militarised border with Belarus. “Are we happy with this phone call?,” asked Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics. “No. Are we hysterical about this phone call? Also no.”
And there have been accusations that major European powers such as Germany and France have been protecting their own interests at the expense of their allies in eastern Europe. This follows a phone conversation between French President Emmanuel Macron and Mr Putin during which the two leaders discussed the Polish border crisis in some detail. The call prompted complaints from Poland that the country was being left out of discussions regarding its own border.
Thus, while the EU attempts to maintain a united front as it seeks to tackle the latest migrant crisis to hit its borders, all indications suggest that attempts to sow discord among European leaders is starting to bear fruit.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Fixtures and results:
Wed, Aug 29:
Malaysia bt Hong Kong by 3 wickets
Oman bt Nepal by 7 wickets
UAE bt Singapore by 215 runs
Thu, Aug 30:
UAE bt Nepal by 78 runs
Hong Kong bt Singapore by 5 wickets
Oman bt Malaysia by 2 wickets
Sat, Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong; Oman v Singapore; Malaysia v Nepal
Sun, Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman; Malaysia v UAE; Nepal v Singapore
Tue, Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore; UAE v Oman; Nepal v Hong Kong
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
Travel distance: Limited
Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
Duration: Can linger for days
Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.
Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip:Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.
