Change is coming and the region has no time to lose

The region must look beyond the Iran framework deal before it's too late, argues HA Hellyer

Iranian and American officials meet during negotiations in Lausanne over Iran's nuclear programme. Brendan Smialowski / AFP Photo

There is something missing from all the current furore surrounding the framework for the Iran nuclear deal. The reality is that a sea change is taking place in the region, not just in how it interacts with Tehran, but far beyond. It is not clear, however, that everyone is ready for that change.

The region has survived on withholding what has essentially been pent-up energy for a long time. The uprisings in 2011 were, in large part, due to that energy erupting. The ramifications of those upheavals are not yet spent – but there are now some other elements in the mix.

One of those elements is the enduring Arab-Israeli conflict. Though Benjamin Netanyahu may feel triumphant after his party won last month’s election, Israel doesn’t stand secure. On the contrary, it is in a precarious position. The country remains ostracised internationally, even at the most basic levels. That situation is untenable, yet there appears to be little thinking within Israel on how to move forward.

The framework of the Iran deal may be tinkered with between now and the summer, but in all likelihood there will be some sort of agreement with Iran that will result in a substantial part of the sanctions regime lifted. Iran, which has been the target of financial restrictions for decades, will be able to spread its wings in a way that it could scarcely have imagined a few month ago.

For a long while, many in the region acted as though this might never happen – as though such a deal could be kept off the table perpetually. But if this deal doesn’t quite succeed, another one will and it is wrong to hold to the notion that Iran will be isolated forever. The question is no longer if Iran will come in from the cold; it is how to deal with a new geopolitical reality when it does.

An Iran that is more accessible to the world may not shift at all internally, resulting in a change of the balance of power within Iran, but considering how it might – and what those shifts may lead to – is a necessity for anyone in the region who is concerned about the future.

Today, there is a powerful reaction to the Houthis in Yemen, which many believe Iran has fuelled. Many would also argue Iran is directly responsible rather than simply opportunistic. But it can be argued that Iran’s role in Yemen cannot be compared to its role in Syria, which is obviously an intense strategic consideration for Tehran. Given that, and given the opening that a deal will provide, how might Syria look in five years from now?

These sorts of questions have yet to be raised, as have the questions around how the GCC in particular, and the Arab world in general, might respond to an Iranian regime that is less obviously shackled.

This situation is evolving at the same time as the US is withdrawing from the region. How will that void be filled? Will Arab states fill it? Will Iran?

How might Turkey play into this, in the years ahead, especially as the presidency in Ankara no longer evokes the same positive responses it once did in the West? Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbours” policy did not succeed, nor has it become a member of the EU.

In many parts of the region, the security narrative – sometimes justified, often times not – has taken hold, helping to define, craft and limit how policies are formed. As ISIL continues to gain recruits, what is the longterm strategy for Arab states? Indeed, is there even anything that looks beyond the short-term?

Parts of the Arab world stand in the most impossible positions. The inhabitants of Yarmouk have been brutalised many times. These Palestinian refugees have been under siege by Mr Al Assad’s regime for two years, and now ISIL’s incursion into the refugee settlement has given them a whole different burden to bear. The camp used to hold 200,000 inhabitants. Now it holds 16,000. It stands as a testament to repeated quagmires of shame: the Palestinian question, Mr Al Assad’s brutality and ISIL’s viciousness.

But none of those things are going away. On the contrary, they are likely to deepen, in a region that is going through a substantial shift in its political alliances and allegiances. No one knows what the region will look like in five years – yet, everyone ought to know that they should start making contingency plans not today, but yesterday. Time is not running out, it has already expired. The region has to play catch up – and do so in double quick time.

Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC

On Twitter @hahellyer