Can Kobler fashion a better future for ordinary Libyans?

Can a political settlement be put back on track in Libya? Mustafa Fetouri takes stock of the prospects

Can Libya get back on track? Ismail Zitouny /Reuters

Just before quitting his post, the outgoing UN envoy to Libya announced his proposed political settlement between Libya’s two quarrelling governments.

When he did so, Bernardino Leon made it clear that what he was offering was neither negotiable nor open to debate. It had to be accepted or rejected by both sides in Libya.

So what did he propose and why has it been rejected without any voting by both Libya’s recognised parliament in El Bayda, in the east of the country, known as the House of Representatives, and also in Tripoli’s already expired General National Congress.

Mr Leon came up with the idea of a government of national accord in which both sides were represented.

He named the prime minister and two of his deputies, and created two new political bodies – the presidential council and the National Security Council.

The House of Representatives rejected the proposal mainly because the members of the proposed NSC came from Misurata and are believed to have direct links to that city’s strong militias.

The General National Council is split, although the rejectionists appear to have the upper hand.

It includes most of the coalition of Islamists that support the Tripoli-based GNC and its government, which is not recognised by any other state.

This parallel government was created after the 2014 offensive in which the airport and several civilian jets were destroyed and hundreds of families were forced out of their homes.

Last month, events took a bloody turn in Benghazi as mortar rounds were fired on civilians protesting against the proposed political deal, killing at least nine people. Police confirmed that the shells came from ISIL-held areas.

In the same month, the mandate of the House expired.

Unable to organise fresh elections and without any effective power to reinforce the status quo the House had little option but to extend its own mandate until such time that a government of national accord is approved or the country is stable enough to call new elections.

None of that appears to be happening any time soon.

On the contrary, the country is poised for further instability and possible all out conflict.

Ordinary Libyans would back any political settlement and any form of government as long as it could return some sort of normality into their chaotic lives. Against this political wrangling the country is sliding further into chaos and has become a haven for terror groups, particularly ISIL, which has consolidated its presence by taking over the coastal city of Sirte.

Hundreds of families were forced to flee the city and seek refuge in other parts of Libya with the majority heading to Bani Walid in the south-west.

Sirte is of great strategic importance since it’s close to Libya’s main oil producing and exporting crescent.

It also sits on the crossroads to southern Libya as well as east and west and who controls it can effectively divide the country.

ISIL has also been consolidating its hold in the western coastal town of Sabratha near the Tunisian borders and close to the gas exporting terminal in Mellitah from where gas is pumped under sea to Italy.

It remains to be seen if any kind of political settlement can be put back on track.

The UN has already named a German diplomat, Martin Kobler, as its new envoy to the war shattered country. Can he rekindle the hopes of ordinary Libyans?

Mustafa Fetouri is an independent Libyan academic and journalist who lives in Belgium